The Tropical Prediction Center, the NHC, and the Miami WFO, 1999

Part of the mission of the National Weather Service (NWS) Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) is to save lives and protect property by issuing watches, warnings, forecasts, and analyses of hazardous weather conditions in the tropics. This section provides information about the roles of those responsible for providing hurricane information to emergency managers and decision makers.

The TPC is comprised of the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB), and the Technical Support Branch (TSB). During hurricane season, the latter two provide support to the NHC.

The local NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) in hurricane-prone areas are also important participants in the forecast process.

The NHC and your local WFO have various roles in the forecast process that are closely coordinated. Their activities are summarized below.

• OBSERVATION
  Observations including satellites, buoys, reconnaissance aircraft, and radar are the basis for all forecast and warning products issued by the NHC. Quality, quantity, and timeliness of remote sensing observations are critical for accurate and timely forecasts and warnings. Learn More

• ANALYSIS
  The various observations are checked for quality, analyzed, and put into a suite of computer models. Learn More

• MODEL GUIDANCE AND INTERPRETATION
  The computer models take in the observations and perform millions of calculations to generate predictions of hurricane behavior and the general conditions of the atmosphere in which the hurricane is embedded. The model results are packaged as guidance for the appropriate national centers and local offices and for evaluation and use in the NWS's forecast and warning process. Learn More

• COORDINATION WITHIN THE NWS
  Forecasts and warnings are coordinated between the national centers and local forecast offices to provide consistency, which is critical during severe weather episodes. Learn More

• PRODUCT GENERATION
  Once the coordination and collaboration process reaches group consensus, the issuing offices generate forecast and warning products for release to the public. Learn More

• Product Dissemination
  Timely and reliable dissemination of forecasts and warnings is critical to the protection of life and property. The types of products issued are described on the Forecast Products page. Learn More

• Coordination with Customers
  The NHC and the local NWS forecast office work with your community leaders to determine whether the forecast and warning products issued were useful and how they can provide you even better service in the future. Learn More

RELATED INFORMATION
• HURRICANE FORECAST PRODUCTS TEXT – GRAPHICAL
• COORDINATION PROCESS
• OBSERVATIONS & DATA
• FORECAST ERRORS
• WATCHES & WARNINGS

RELATED WEBSITES
• NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
• NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
• STORM PREDICTION CENTER

ADDITIONAL SAFETY INFORMATION

WATCH vs. WARNING - KNOW THE DIFFERENCE

• TROPICAL STORM WATCH: An announcement that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified coastal area within 48 hours.


• TROPICAL STORM WARNING: An announcement that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected somewhere within the specified coastal area within 36 hours.


• HURRICANE WATCH: An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are possible within the specified coastal area. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the hurricane watch is issued 48 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds.


• HURRICANE WARNING: An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are expected somewhere within the specified coastal area. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the hurricane warning is issued 36 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds.