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2011 Changes to References for Kilometers per Hour (KM/H) (Text)


Beginning with the 2011 season, the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory (TCP) issued by NHC, CPHC, and WFO Guam will use a different abbreviation for kilometers per hour. It will change from KM/HR to KM/H. This change will also occur in the Tropical Cyclone Update (TCU) (when the summary section is included), and in the Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Speed Probabilities (TCSWSP) products issued by NHC and CPHC. Also, in the TCSWSP, the abbreviation of kilometers per hour in table II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS will change from KPH to KM/H.


Affected Products

Product Name WMO Header AWIPS IDs
Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory WTNT31-15 KNHC (Atlantic)
WTPZ31-35 KNHC (Eastern Pacific)
WTCA41-45 TJSJ (Spanish)
WTPA31-35 PHFO (Central Pacific)
WTPQ31-35 PGUM (western N. Pacific)
TCPAT1-5
TCPEP1-5
TCPSP1-5
TCPCP1-5
TCPPQ1-5
Tropical Cyclone Update WTNT61-65 KNHC (Atlantic)
WTPZ61-65 KNHC (Eastern Pacific)
WTPA61-65 PHFO (Central Pacific)
TCUAT1-5
TCUEP1-5
TCUCP1-5
Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probabilities FONT11-15 KNHC (Atlantic)
FOPZ11-15 KNHC (Eastern Pacific)
FOPA11-15 PHFO (Central Pacific)
PWSAT1-5
PWSEP1-5
PWSCP1-5


Old Public Advisory (TCP) format

000
WTNT33 KNHC 141436
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL182010
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 14 2010
 
...PAULA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING
ANTICIPATED AS THE STORM HUGS THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 84.1W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM WSW OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA
HABANA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...BUT A TURN
TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...PAULA WILL
CONTINUE TO HUG THE NORTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA OR MOVE INLAND OVER
CUBA TODAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND PAULA COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SHOULD BE SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN
CUBA TODAY PRIMARILY ALONG THE NORTH COAST. WINDS COULD BEGIN TO
INCREASE OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS LATE TODAY.
 
RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH PAULA. THESE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH ARE POSSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS.
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE NORTH COAST OF EXTREME WESTERN CUBA.
THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA

New Public Advisory (TCP) format

000
WTNT33 KNHC 141436
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL182010
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

...PAULA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING
ANTICIPATED AS THE STORM HUGS THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 84.1W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM WSW OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA
HABANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...BUT A TURN
TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...PAULA WILL
CONTINUE TO HUG THE NORTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA OR MOVE INLAND OVER
CUBA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND PAULA COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SHOULD BE SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN
CUBA TODAY PRIMARILY ALONG THE NORTH COAST. WINDS COULD BEGIN TO
INCREASE OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS LATE TODAY.

RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH PAULA. THESE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH ARE POSSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE NORTH COAST OF EXTREME WESTERN CUBA.
THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Old Tropical Cyclone Update (TCU) format

000
WTNT61 KNHC 062308
TCUAT1

HURRICANE TOMAS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010
715 PM AST SAT NOV 06 2010

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT TOMAS HAS REGAINED
HURRICANE STRENGTH...
 
SHORTLY BEFORE 700 PM AST...2300 UTC...A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN
TOMAS HAVE INCREASED TO 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...MAKING TOMAS A
HURRICANE AGAIN. DETAILS WILL FOLLOW IN A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO BE
ISSUED BY 800 PM AST...0000 UTC. 

 
SUMMARY OF 715 PM AST...2315 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 69.8W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM NNE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...25 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.11 INCHES
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BROWN

New Tropical Cyclone Update (TCU) format

000
WTNT61 KNHC 062308
TCUAT1

HURRICANE TOMAS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010
715 PM AST SAT NOV 06 2010

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT TOMAS HAS REGAINED
HURRICANE STRENGTH...

SHORTLY BEFORE 700 PM AST...2300 UTC...A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN
TOMAS HAVE INCREASED TO 75 MPH...120 KM/H...MAKING TOMAS A
HURRICANE AGAIN. DETAILS WILL FOLLOW IN A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO BE
ISSUED BY 800 PM AST...0000 UTC.


SUMMARY OF 715 PM AST...2315 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 69.8W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM NNE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...25 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.11 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BROWN

Old Wind Speed Probabilities (PWS) format

000
FONT15 KNHC 240253
PWSAT5

TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152010               
0300 UTC FRI SEP 24 2010                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR. 
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       1       4       9      18      25      31
TROP DEPRESSION  3       6      15      16      12      15      13
TROPICAL STORM  90      51      59      47      48      39      33
HURRICANE        7      42      22      28      23      21      24
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        6      35      18      22      18      15      16
HUR CAT 2        X       5       2       5       4       5       6
HUR CAT 3        1       1       1       2       1       2       2
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       1
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   50KT    65KT    60KT    65KT    50KT    40KT    35KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
VERACRUZ MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)   5(17)
FRONTERA MX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
FRONTERA MX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   6(16)   5(21)
MERIDA MX      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
MERIDA MX      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   9(15)   5(20)   4(24)
COZUMEL MX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
COZUMEL MX     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
BELIZE         34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  20(23)  21(44)   4(48)   3(51)
BELIZE         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  10(15)   3(18)   1(19)
BELIZE         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)  12(23)   5(28)   2(30)
PUERTO BARRIOS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)
PUERTO BARRIOS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
GUANAJA        34  X   4( 4)  26(30)  21(51)   6(57)   1(58)   1(59)
GUANAJA        50  X   X( X)   9( 9)  14(23)   4(27)   1(28)   1(29)
GUANAJA        64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
PUERTO CABEZAS 34  1  23(24)   8(32)   1(33)   X(33)   X(33)   1(34)
PUERTO CABEZAS 50  X   4( 4)   5( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
PUERTO CABEZAS 64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
BLUEFIELDS     34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAN ANDRES     34  1   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   3(10)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   2( 8)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    

New Wind Speed Probabilities (PWS) format

000
FONT15 KNHC 240253
PWSAT5

TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152010               
0300 UTC FRI SEP 24 2010                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       1       4       9      18      25      31
TROP DEPRESSION  3       6      15      16      12      15      13
TROPICAL STORM  90      51      59      47      48      39      33
HURRICANE        7      42      22      28      23      21      24
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        6      35      18      22      18      15      16
HUR CAT 2        X       5       2       5       4       5       6
HUR CAT 3        1       1       1       2       1       2       2
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       1
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   50KT    65KT    60KT    65KT    50KT    40KT    35KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
VERACRUZ MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)   5(17)
FRONTERA MX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
FRONTERA MX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   6(16)   5(21)
MERIDA MX      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
MERIDA MX      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   9(15)   5(20)   4(24)
COZUMEL MX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
COZUMEL MX     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
BELIZE         34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  20(23)  21(44)   4(48)   3(51)
BELIZE         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  10(15)   3(18)   1(19)
BELIZE         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)  12(23)   5(28)   2(30)
PUERTO BARRIOS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)
PUERTO BARRIOS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
GUANAJA        34  X   4( 4)  26(30)  21(51)   6(57)   1(58)   1(59)
GUANAJA        50  X   X( X)   9( 9)  14(23)   4(27)   1(28)   1(29)
GUANAJA        64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
PUERTO CABEZAS 34  1  23(24)   8(32)   1(33)   X(33)   X(33)   1(34)
PUERTO CABEZAS 50  X   4( 4)   5( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
PUERTO CABEZAS 64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
BLUEFIELDS     34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAN ANDRES     34  1   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   3(10)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   2( 8)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    

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