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Tropical Cyclone Report

Hurricane Jeanne

13 - 28 September 2004

Miles B. Lawrence and Hugh D. Cobb
National Hurricane Center
22 November 2004
Revised: 7 January 2005

Jeanne produced heavy rain over Guadeloupe, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic and caused an estimated 3000 or more deaths in Haiti, from torrential rainfall flooding. Finally, Jeanne hit the northern Bahamas and then the central Florida east coast as a category three hurricane.

a. Synoptic History

Jeanne formed from a tropical wave that moved from Africa to the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean on 7 September. The wave moved uneventfully across the Atlantic until a tropical depression formed from it on 13 September as it approached the Leeward Islands. Jeanne's best track begins at 1800 UCT on this day and the "best track" chart of the tropical cyclone's path is plotted in Figure 1. Maximum 1-min. wind speeds and minimum central surface pressure histories are shown in Figure 2 and Figure 3, respectively. All of the best track data are listed in Table 1.

From 13 to 18 September, the motion was toward the west-northwest at a slow forward speed of 5 to 10 kt, under the steering flow of a subtropical high pressure ridge located to Jeanne's north. The cyclone strengthened to a tropical storm on 14 September while it moved slowly over the Leeward Islands. Continuing west-northwestward, its circulation moved slowly over the Virgin Islands and the center moved inland over southeastern Puerto Rico on 15 September when maximum sustained surface winds reached 60 kt. The center moved across Puerto Rico, then over the Mona Passage and inland at the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic. Jeanne was a hurricane with 70-kt winds while over the Mona Passage and during the Dominican Republic landfall, but then weakened over the rough terrain of Hispaniola. By 1800 UTC on 17 September, the cyclone briefly weakened to a depression and moved over Atlantic waters just north of Hispaniola. On 18 September and in a weakened condition, the low level center moved westward away from the deep convection and dissipated and a new center reformed well to the northeast of the dissipated old center. Jeanne's slow forward motion across the Caribbean motion contributed to torrential rainfall along its path. These rains and resultant fresh-water flooding and mudslides caused thousands to die in Haiti.

While Jeanne was dumping rain over the Caribbean countries, Hurricane Ivan moved over the Gulf of Mexico and inland across the southeastern United States. By 18 September, Ivan's mid-level circulation had combined with an extratropical short wave trough in the westerlies and moved to the northeastern U.S. coast where it eroded the ridge to the north of Jeanne. This placed Jeanne in a weak steering flow that persisted for five days. Jeanne first moved slowly northward over the southeastern Bahamas as a tropical storm and then moved in an anticyclonic loop about 500 n mi east of the northwestern Bahamas. Jeanne gradually strengthened to a hurricane with 85-kt winds by the time it completed this loop on 23 September.

By 23 September, the extratatropical trough previously located over the northeastern U.S. coast moved eastward and was replaced by a large deep-layer migratory ridge that propelled Jeanne on a track just north of due westward. On 24 September, Jeanne moved over its own previous track from a few days earlier and encountered cooler waters caused by upwelling from the hurricane. This is believed to be a factor in the decreasing of the maximum winds from 85 kt to 70 kt by 0000 UTC on 24 September. Continuing westward at 10 to 12 kt and moving away from the upwelled cooler water, the winds increased to 100 kt (category three on the Saffir/Simpson hurricane scale) by 1200 UTC on 25 September as the center moved over Abaco Island and then Grand Bahama Island in the northern Bahamas. Jeanne made landfall on the east coast of Florida early on 26 September with the center of its 50-n mi diameter eye crossing the coast at the southern end of Hutchinson Island just east of Stuart at 0400 UTC on 26 September. Maximum winds at landfall are estimated at 105 kt over a very small area north of the center and it is not clear whether these strongest winds reached the coast or remained over water.

Jeanne moved across central Florida while weakening and began to recurve around the western periphery of the migratory ridge mentioned above. The hurricane weakened to a tropical storm while centered about 30 n mi north of Tampa at 1800 UTC on 26 September and then weakened to a tropical depression about 24 h later while moving northward across central Georgia accompanied by heavy rain. The depression, still accompanied by heavy rain moved over the Carolinas, Virginia, and the Delmarva Peninsula. It merged with a frontal zone and became extratropical at 0000 UTC on 29 September while moving eastward off of the U.S mid-Atlantic coast.

b. Meteorological Statistics

Wind and pressure observations in Jeanne (Figure 2 and Figure 3) include satellite-based Dvorak technique intensity estimates from the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB), the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) and the U. S. Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA), as well as flight-level and dropwindsonde observations from flights of the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron of the U. S. Air Force Reserve Command. Microwave satellite imagery from NOAA polar-orbiting satellites, the NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), the NASA QuikSCAT, and Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites were also useful. Ship reports of winds of tropical storm force and higher associated with Jeanne are given in Table 2, and selected surface observations from land stations and data buoys are given in Table 3.

Unofficial reports indicate that Jeanne was responsible for 8 to 12 in of rainfall over Guadeloupe and nearby islands.

Jeanne made landfall as a tropical storm around 1600 UTC on September 15 across the southeastern coast of Puerto Rico. The observing site at San Juan Airport recorded a sustained wind of 43 kt and the St. Croix Airport reported a sustained wind of 45 kt. The highest reported storm total rainfall amount over the area was at Camp Garcia in Vieques, which recorded 23.75 in. Generally, total rainfall amounts averaged from 5 to 15 in with some locally higher amounts. This magnitude of rainfall produced major and historical flooding at many river forecast points within Puerto Rico. The U.S. and British Virgin Islands also experienced heavy flooding as implied by two reports of over 12 in of rain from St. Thomas.

Jeanne produced torrential rains and tropical storm force winds across much of Hispaniola, with the possibility of hurricane force winds over extreme eastern Dominican Republic. Although no rainfall observations are available, some areas of Haiti, especially in Gonaives, were completely devastated from massive flooding and mudslides.

The highest best track estimated 1-min surface winds are 105 kt from 1800 UTC to 0000 UTC on 25 and 26 September. The hurricane was moving across Grand Bahama Island and nearing the Florida east coast during this time. The value of 105 kt is based primarily on aircraft wind speeds of 113 kt measured at a flight level of 700 mb at 1429 UTC on 25 September and again at 0228 UTC on 26 September, reduced to a surface value of 102 kt using a 0.90 reduction factor. This wind speed estimate is for an "over water" wind. The aircraft wind observed at 0228 UTC was at a location about 35 n mi north of the center of the eye and just offshore of the Florida east coast east of Sebastian. It is possible that wind speeds of near 105 kt may have affected a small area of the coastline in the vicinity of Sebastian, although there are no surface observations at the coast to confirm this. In addition, Step frequency microwave radiometer wind measurements of up to 99 kt were obtained from a NOAA aircraft just prior to landfall. Wind speeds of the same magnitude are expected to have also affected portions of Grand Bahama and Abaco Islands.

Table 3 lists several locations that reported hurricane force sustained winds of 64 kt or greater. The highest sustained surface wind reported was 79 kt at the Melbourne NWS office. This was observed at 0818 UTC when the center was about 45 n mi southwest of Melbourne. A measurement of 69 kt was taken on the north shore of Lake Okeechobee by the South Florida Water Management District at 0515 UTC. A C-MAN station at Settlement Point, Grand Bahama Island reported 77 kt at 0000 UTC on 26 September when the center was located about 35 n mi northwest of the station. The observations indicate that a swath of hurricane force sustained winds about 90 n mi wide affected the Florida east coast from near Cape Canaveral southward to near Stuart. The highest wind gust reported from Florida was 111 kt at Fort Pierce Inlet and a 106-kt gust was reported from Vero Beach. Sustained hurricane force winds spread westward and inland about halfway across Florida and tropical storm force winds affected a large portion of the remainder of central Florida.

The minimum surface pressure in Jeanne is estimated at 950 mb at the time of landfall on the Florida east coast. This is based primarily on an observation of 952.9 mb at Ft. Pierce, located 15 to 20 n mi north of where the center crossed the coast. An aircraft-measured 700-mb height of 2653 m at the same time also suggests a surface pressure of about 950 mb, since a 2657 m value a few hours earlier was accompanied by a dropsonde-measured 951 mb surface pressure.

Widespread rainfall of up to 8 in accompanied Hurricane Jeanne as it moved across eastern, central and northern Florida. A narrower band of 11 to 13 in was observed in the vicinity of the eyewall track over Osceola, Broward and Indian River counties of east central Florida. A secondary radar-estimated rainfall maximum of around 11 in was observed over extreme northeast Florida within Duval and Nassau counties. Rainfall amounts of 4 to 7 in accompanied Jeanne across central Georgia and the western portions of the Carolinas and Virginia.

A storm surge of 3.8 ft above normal astronomical tide levels was measured at Trident Pier at Port Canaveral, Florida about an hour after landfall. Storm surge flooding of up to 6 ft above normal tides likely occurred along the Florida east coast from the vicinity of Melbourne southward to Ft. Pierce. On the Florida west coast, a negative storm surge of about 4.5 ft below normal tides was measured at Cedar Key when winds were blowing offshore. This was followed by a positive surge of about 3.5 ft above normal when winds became onshore.

c. Casualty and Damage Statistics

According to Reuters News, Haiti's death toll is more than 3,000, including nearly 2,900 in the mud-crusted coastal city of Gonaives. Some 200,000 people in Gonaives lost their homes, belongings and livelihoods in the hurricane. One direct death was reported from Puerto Rico, three direct deaths were reported in Florida, and one direct death was reported from South Carolina. In Clay County, Florida, a boy was playing outside during high winds and an oak tree limb fell striking him on the head. In Brevard County, Florida, a man was driving his truck onto a flooded road but the flow carried his truck into a drainage canal where the truck then submerged and he drowned. In Indian River County, Florida, an elderly woman was leaving her home to go to a shelter when a door was blown open by wind throwing her to the ground causing fractures. She was hospitalized for her injuries and died a few days later. In Fairfield County, South Carolina, a man died in a tornado on 27 September. In Patrick County, Virginia, a female drowned in a flash flood near her home. The American Insurance Services group reports that the estimate of insured property losses totaled 3.44 billion dollars. Using a 2 to 1 ratio between insured losses and total damage results in a total U.S. damage estimate of 6.88 billion dollars, which is rounded off to 6.9 billion dollars to avoid suggesting an unrealistic accuracy of the estimate. In fact, this estimate is probably only accurate to within about 25 percent.

d. Forecast and Warning Critique

Average official track errors for Jeanne are given in Table 4, along with the average errors for a selection of track guidance models. The average official track errors (with the number of cases in parentheses) are 24 (56), 41 (56), 57 (55), 72 (53), 123 (49), 211 (45), and 328 (41) n mi for the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h forecasts, respectively. The 12-72 h errors are considerably smaller than the average official track errors for the 10-yr period 1994-2003 and the 96-h is smaller than the previous 3-yr average. In contrast, the 120 h error is slightly higher than the previous 3-yr average (Table 4). The largest 120-h official track forecast errors were for forecasts made on 16 and 17 September, when Jeanne was moving across Hispaniola. These forecasts failed to capture the turn to the north and subsequent loop that occurred from 18 through 23 September, but instead showed a track directly toward the southeastern United States. There were several global guidance models that had smaller average errors than the official error at 72, 96, and 120 h. Also, the CONU and GUNA consensus models and the FSU superensemble model had smaller average errors than the official forecast at many forecast periods.

Average official intensity errors were 7, 9, 10, 11, 17, 22, and 23 kt for the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h forecasts, respectively. For comparison, the average official intensity errors over the 10-yr period 1994-2003 (96 and 120 h averages are for the 3-yr period 2001-2003) are 6, 10, 12, 15, 19, 20, and 21 kt, respectively. In Table 1 and Figure 2, the wind speed value for 0000 UTC, 24 September, is 70 kt, while the operational wind speed estimate for this time was 85 kt. There was no aerial reconnaissance for 24 hours preceding the operational estimate and the operational estimate was based on satellite Dvorak intensity estimates. However, an aircraft flew into the hurricane shortly after this time and determined that the winds were only about 70 kt. So the 0-h official wind speed error for this time is an overestimate of 15 kt.

Table 5 lists all of the watches and warnings issued for Jeanne. A tropical storm warning for Guadeloupe was issued only 7 h prior to landfall. This short lead time was due to the tropical cyclone forming only 7 h prior to this landfall. A tropical storm warning was issued for Puerto Rico 43 h prior to landfall. A tropical storm warning and hurricane watch were issued for the Dominican Republic 38 h before landfall and a hurricane warning was issued 20 h before landfall. A hurricane watch and warning were issued 44.5 h and 29 h, respectively, before landfall at Abaco Island in the Bahamas, A hurricane watch and warning for the Florida east coast were issued 43 h and 31 h, respectively, before landfall.

Acknowledgements

The National Weather Service forecast offices at Jacksonville, Key West, Melbourne, Miami, and Tampa, Florida and San Juan, Puerto Rico and also the Southern Region Headquarters contributed to this report.



Table 1: Best track for Hurricane Jeanne, 13-28 September 2004.
Date/Time
(UTC)
PositionPressure
(mb)
Wind Speed
(kt)
Stage
Lat.
(°N)
Lon.
(°W)
 13 / 1800 15.9 60.0 1010 25 tropical depression
 14 / 0000 16.0 60.7 1010 25 "
 14 / 0600 16.3 61.5 1009 30 "
 14 / 1200 16.4 62.6 1006 35 tropical storm
 14 / 1800 16.7 63.5 996 50 "
 15 / 0000 17.1 64.0 996 55 "
 15 / 0600 17.2 64.8 994 55 "
 15 / 1200 17.6 65.4 991 60 "
 15 / 1800 18.1 66.2 991 60 "
 16 / 0000 18.5 67.1 993 60 "
 16 / 0600 18.6 67.8 992 60 "
 16 / 1200 18.6 68.5 984 70 hurricane
 16 / 1800 18.8 69.0 988 65 "
 17 / 0000 19.2 69.4 990 60 tropical storm
 17 / 0600 19.4 69.9 990 55 "
 17 / 1200 19.7 70.7 990 50 "
 17 / 1800 20.0 71.6 1002 30 tropical depression
 18 / 0000 20.2 72.0 1000 40 tropical storm
 18 / 0600 20.4 72.5 1000 45 "
 18 / 1200 21.2 72.8 1000 45 "
 18 / 1800 21.7 72.3 1005 40 "
 19 / 0000 22.2 72.2 1002 40 "
 19 / 0600 22.8 72.3 1002 40 "
 19 / 1200 23.5 72.5 1000 40 "
 19 / 1800 24.2 72.3 996 45 "
 20 / 0000 24.8 72.1 994 50 "
 20 / 0600 25.5 72.0 992 55 "
 20 / 1200 26.6 71.7 989 60 "
 20 / 1800 27.2 71.4 984 75 hurricane
 21 / 0000 27.4 70.8 982 75 "
 21 / 0600 27.6 70.2 972 75 "
 21 / 1200 27.6 69.5 972 75 "
 21 / 1800 27.4 69.2 972 75 "
 22 / 0000 27.2 68.9 972 80 "
 22 / 0600 26.8 68.7 968 85 "
 22 / 1200 26.5 68.5 968 85 "
 22 / 1800 26.2 68.8 967 85 "
 23 / 0000 25.7 69.0 966 85 "
 23 / 0600 25.5 69.3 966 85 "
 23 / 1200 25.5 69.6 966 80 "
 23 / 1800 25.8 70.0 966 75 "
 24 / 0000 26.0 70.4 966 70 "
 24 / 0600 26.1 71.2 969 75 "
 24 / 1200 26.2 72.2 969 80 "
 24 / 1800 26.4 73.1 968 85 "
 25 / 0000 26.4 74.3 964 85 "
 25 / 0600 26.5 75.6 960 90 "
 25 / 1200 26.6 76.9 957 100 "
 25 / 1800 26.9 78.2 952 105 "
 26 / 0000 27.1 79.4 951 105 "
 26 / 0600 27.3 80.6 953 95 "
 26 / 1200 27.7 81.6 965 75 "
 26 / 1800 28.3 82.3 970 55 tropical storm
 27 / 0000 29.3 82.7 978 45 "
 27 / 0600 30.1 83.3 981 40 "
 27 / 1200 31.1 83.9 987 35 "
 27 / 1800 32.5 83.6 993 30 tropical depression
 28 / 0000 33.2 83.2 998 25 "
 28 / 0600 34.1 82.4 999 20 "
 28 / 1200 35.4 81.0 1000 20 "
 28 / 1800 37.3 78.4 999 25 "
 29 / 0000 38.3 76.4 999 25 extratropical
 29 / 0600 38.8 74.7 999 35 "
 29 / 1200 38.5 72.5 999 35 "
 29 / 1800     dissipated
 26 / 0400 27.2 80.3 950 105 minimum pressure
 14/0400 16.2 61.3 1009 30 landfall at Guadeloupe
 15/1600 18.0 66.0 991 60 landfall 15 n mi east of Guayama, Puerto Rico
 16/1100 18.6 68.3 985 70 landfall at eastern tip of Dominican Republic
 25/1400 26.7 77.3 956 100 landfall at Abaco Island, Bahamas
 26/0400 27.2 80.2 950 105 landfall at southern end of Hutchinson Island just east of Stuart, Florida


Table 2: Selected ship reports with sustained winds of at least 34 kt for Hurricane Jeanne, 13-28, September 2004.
Ship Name or Call SignDate/Time (UTC)Lat.
(°N)
Lon.
(°W)
Wind dir/speed (deg/kt)Pressure (mb)
P3NC515 / 030017.364.5060 / 39 1008.3 
P3NC515 / 120017.964.7100 / 49 1008.7 
P3NC515 / 150017.564.5120 / 41 1014.7 
WZJD16 / 180022.469.6080 / 37 1014.0 
VRXL620 / 180031.875.3300 / 35 1016.0 
VRXL621 / 060029.377.5300 / 35 1014.0 
KIRF22 / 210029.967.7010 / 40 1011.3 
KIRF23 / 000030.868.4010 / 40 1013.8 
DGNB24 / 170027.379.8*** / 70 1013.5 
WZJC24 / 210030.174.1050 / 37 1008.5 
WZJC24 / 230030.173.3080 / 36 1008.5 
WZJC25 / 030030.172.4050 / 37 1011.5 
WGJT25 / 060029.980.1040 / 38 1010.0 
WJBJ25 / 110030.278.9050 / 35 1008.6 
WGJT25 / 120029.578.2070 / 44 1004.8 
WJBJ25 / 170029.877.6070 / 44 1006.5 
WJBJ25 / 180029.777.5080 / 42 1005.7 
A8CF225 / 180030.179.1060 / 44 1009.0 
WJBJ25 / 230029.276.4110 / 37 1006.4 
DPLE26 / 000025.680.0270 / 45 997.3 
A8CF226 / 000029.578.6060 / 37 1004.0 
WDB94426 / 060025.979.6210 / 39 997.0 
KGBE26 / 060026.088.0060 / 37 1008.5 
WGXN26 / 060031.278.9080 / 35 1008.9 
WDB94426 / 120027.879.6160 / 42 996.0 
DPLE26 / 120028.979.9110 / 52 1001.2 
WDB94426 / 150028.779.6120 / 39 1001.5 
MZNM726 / 180027.679.1140 / 35 1006.0 
WGXN26 / 180029.079.3140 / 39 1003.0 
WDB94426 / 180029.579.6110 / 41 1003.4 
MZNM726 / 210027.079.4180 / 35 1005.4 
WGXN26 / 230028.179.7160 / 38 1000.5 
WGXN27 / 000027.979.7170 / 37 1001.5 
KRHX27 / 000029.580.3150 / 50 998.9 
KRHX27 / 030028.980.2170 / 37 1003.0 
VRWG628 / 120034.276.2200 / 35 1010.0 
VRWG628 / 180033.278.0230 / 41 1007.0 
VDLC28 / 180043.878.1040 / 39  
WGMJ29 / 120036.972.5260 / 35 1007.3 


Table 3: Selected surface observations for Hurricane Jeanne, 13-28 September 2004
Minimum
Sea-level
Pressure
Maximum Surface Wind Speed
(kt)
LocationDate/
Time
(UTC)
Press.
(mb)
Date/
Timea
(UTC)
Sust.
Windb
(kts)
Peak
Gust (kts)
Storm
Surgec
(ft)
Storm
Tided
(ft)
Rain
(storm total)
(in)
Florida
Craig Field (KCRG)15/1653 999.9 15/1929 37 55   1.23 
Cross City (KCTY)27/0313 982.1 26/2149 39 54   5.51 
Daytona Beach (KDAB)26/1908 993.6 26/1520 45 55   2.31 
Fargo (FFPG1)       7.05 
Fernandina Beach (NOS)27/0800 999.4    2.66 9.33  
Fort Lauderdale (KFXE)26/0200 990.8 26/0053 35 49   0.74 
Fort Pierce (KFPR)e26/0413 952.9 26/0215 45 76    
Gainesville (KGNV)26/2333 985.1 27/0345 38 52   4.90 
Jacksonville (KJAX)27/0011 995.9 27/0013 40 48   4.65 
Mayport NAS (KNRB)26/2338 998.0 27/0004 44 49 2.35 7.83 1.90 
Mayport Bar Pilot Station (NOS)26/2354 998.3    1.94 7.57  
Melbourne (KMLB)e26/0458 986.8 25/2343 52 68   6.04 
NAS Jacksonville (KNIP)26/2355 995.9  44 55   4.16 
Ocala Municipal Airport (KOCF)26/2215 980.0 27/0515 30 44   6.96 
Orlando (KMCO)26/1555 985.1 26/1055 53 67    
Orlando (KORL)e26/0807 994.2 26/0501 34 47   5.40 
Palm Beach (KPBI)26/0200 974.2 26/0153  60   9.10 
Pompano Beach (KPMP)26/0200 989.5 26/0127 40 58   2.62 
Sanford (KSFB)26/1943 988.8 26/1302 46 60   4.37 
St. Augustine (KSGJ)26/2315 997.0 26/1955 42 53   3.16 
Tallahassee (KTLH)27/0808 990.2 27/0601 29 42   1.21 
Trident Pier Port Canaveral     3.8   
Vero Beach (KVRB)e       5.08 
Georgia
Fort Pulaski (NOS)     2.78 9.14  
Moody AFB (KVAD)       7.18 
Savannah (KSAV)27/2153 1003 27/1640 29 38   0.98 
St.Simons Island (NOS)     1.31 9.46  
Valdosta (KVLD)27/0849 987.8 27/0119 35 45   5.38 
South Carolina
Charleston (KCHS)28/0856 1006 28/0622 28 36 1.46 6.90 1.01 
Fripps Inlet (NOS)     1.85 8.34  
Buoy/CMAN
NOAA Buoy 4100827/1250 1003 27/1450 29 38    
NOAA Buoy 4101025/2200 1000.5 25/2300 33 43    
NOAA Buoy 4101226/2250 999.4       
NOAA Buoy 4200326/2050 1004.7 26/0650 23 29    
NOAA Buoy 4203626/2350 997.6 26/1850 31 41    
Cedar Key (CDRF1)26/2056 987.6 26/1800 30 40    
Egmont Key (EGKF1)  26/1818 46 55    
Folly Beach (FBIS128/1200 1007 27/1200 27 33    
Lake Worth (LKWF1)26/0300 974.2 26/0300 52 82    
Port Richey (PTRF1)  26/2130 44     
Settlement Point (SPGF1)25/2100 961.8 26/0000 77 86    
St. Augustine (SAUF1)26/2105 995.4 27/0150 48 65    
Tarpon Springs (TARF1)  26/2106 44     
Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands
San Juan15/1908 1004.1 15/1734 43 62   5.98 
St. Croix Airport15/0750 1003.1 15/0800 45 54   6.13 
St. Thomas Airport15/0813 1010.2 15/1755 34 44   12.12 
Unofficial Observations
Florida
Seminole County Mesonet
STN 22 (28.66°N 82.35°W)26/1730 987.8 26/1200  57   5.01 
STN 34 (28.82°N 82.34°W)26/1900 990.1 26/2030  47   4.52 
STN 65 (28.61°N 82.19°W)26/1600 988.6 26/1104  49    
SFWMD S65DWX 27.31°N 81.02°W  26/0545 45 88    
SFWMD L001f 27.14°N 80.79°W26/0700 960.4 26/0515 69 91    
SFWMD L00526/0645 974.4 26/0808  82    
SFWMD L00626/0615 974.9 26/0646  79    
SFWMD LXWS  26/0334  77    
Ashburn (ASHG1)       5.65 
Bell 4WNW (BLLF1)       6.90 
Fort Pierce Inlet 27.48°N 80.3°W  26/0528  111g    
Jensen Beach 27.26°N 80.23°W    91    
Juno Beach 26.875°N 80.070°W25/2250 959.6 25/2235 34 62    
Kenansville Automated Weather Network (FAWN)       11.97 
Lakeland (LAKG1)       8.59 
Lakeland (south)26/1500 968 26/1100  71e   8.09 
Live Oak (LVOF1)       10.88 
Mayo (MAYF1)       7.60 
NASA Wind Tower 1h (28.43°N 80.57°W)  26/0340 39 73    
NASA Wind Tower 19h (28.74°N 80.7°W)  26/0745 50 68    
NASA Wind Tower 22h (28.8°N 80.74°W)  26/1855 50 66    
NASA Wind Tower 1007h (28.53°N 80.77°W)  26/0955 50 72    
NWS Melbourne  26/0818 79    6.12 
Ocilla (OCIG1)       5.60 
Palm Bay COOP  26/0819  74   8.93 
Port Canaveral USCG  26/0610  76    
Port St. Lucie26/0424 953.7 26/0213 49 74    
Sebastian Florida Coastal Monitoring System  26/0647 71 101    
Sebastian    92e    
Sebastian 27.805°N 80.482°W Memory Makers, Inc.26/0235 971.4 26/0400 71 79    
Port St. Lucie Automatic Position Reporting Station CW0572 (APRS)26/0424 953.7       
Tifton (TFTG1)       8.98 
Vero Beach KF4PKB (APRS)26/0625 965.5       
Vero Beach (FCMS)  26/0417 68 106    
Wimauma (4 mi. SW) 984 26/1524 48 70   2.58 
Georgia
Homerville Ga. Automated Environmental Monitoring Network (GAEMN)       8.22 
Nahunta (GAEMN)       4.54 
Rocky Ford       3.19 
Puerto Rico
Aibonito 1S (ALPP4)       18.67 
Cayey Spotter  15/1425  63    
Corozal Alert gage (ZDBP4)       14.25 
Hapenney Beach  15/1230  54    
Jayuya RG nr Bo. Saliente (JAZP4)       14.80 
Lago De Matrullas - Orocovis (OROP4)       15.28 
Queb. Blanca nr San Lorenzo (SLGP4)       14.84 
Rio Icacos nr Naguabo (NGIP4)       18.44 
Rio Mameyes nr Sabana (MSAP4)       17.09 
Rio Matrullas Alert gage (ZDDP4)       15.20 
Rio Turabo abv Borinquen (CAKP4)       14.22 
Vieques-Camp Garcia (WVEP4)       23.75 
Virgin Islands
Charlotte Amalie, St. Thom. USVI (XTCP4)       12.77 
Maria Hill Spotter St. Croix15/1156 995.8 15/1150  83   7.65 
St. Croix east end15/0746 1007.8 15/0616  63   4.99 
Turpentine Run, St.Thom. USVI (XTFP4)       12.09 
Guadeloupe
Southwestern Guadeloupe       7+ 
Marie-Galante       12+ 
aDate/time is for sustained wind when both sustained and gust are listed.
bExcept as noted, sustained wind averaging periods for C-MAN and land-based ASOS reports are 2 min; buoy averaging periods are 8 min.
cStorm surge is water height above normal astronomical tide level.
dStorm tide is water height above National Geodetic Vertical Datum (1929 mean sea level).
eWind equipment failed during or prior to the height of the storm
fAnemometer height 28 ft AGL
gDavis Weather Wizard II anemometer 36 ft AGL
hAnemometer height 54 ft AGL


Table 4: Table 4. Track guidance model preliminary forecast evaluation (heterogeneous sample) for Hurricane Jeanne, 13-28 September 2004. Forecast errors (n mi) are followed by the number of forecasts in parentheses. Errors smaller than the NHC official forecast are shown in bold-face type. Verification includes the depression stage, but does not include the extratropical stage, if any.
Forecast TechniquePeriod (hours)
122436487296120
CLP533 (56) 72 (56) 121 (55) 186 (53) 326 (49) 461 (45) 582 (41) 
GFNI34 (54) 64 (53) 91 (52) 109 (49) 134 (44) 202 (40)349 (36) 
GFDI28 (56) 50 (56) 66 (55) 75 (53) 137 (49) 264 (45) 424 (41) 
GFDL31 (56) 50 (56) 67 (55) 73 (53) 118 (49)228 (45) 383 (41) 
GFDN35 (54) 62 (54) 90 (52) 107 (49) 129 (44) 186 (40)300 (36)
GFSI26 (55) 41 (55) 63 (54) 89 (52) 166 (48) 295 (44) 476 (40) 
GFSO32 (57) 42 (57) 58 (55) 78 (53) 145 (49) 257 (45) 428 (41) 
AEMI29 (55) 48 (55) 66 (54) 89 (52) 171 (48) 302 (44) 454 (40) 
NGPI33 (56) 60 (56) 82 (55) 107 (53) 155 (49) 226 (45) 373 (41) 
NGPS39 (57) 64 (57) 87 (55) 112 (53) 154 (49) 207 (45)325 (41)
UKMI33 (53) 63 (53) 87 (52) 104 (50) 140 (46) 248 (42) 429 (38) 
UKM42 (28) 63 (28) 92 (27) 113 (26) 132 (24) 200 (22)344 (20) 
A98E32 (56) 58 (56) 78 (55) 110 (53) 214 (49) 391 (45) 604 (41) 
A9UK35 (28) 65 (28) 87 (27) 113 (26) 184 (24) 999 ( 0) 999 ( 0) 
BAMD30 (56) 51 (56) 72 (55) 92 (53) 171 (49) 312 (45) 522 (41) 
BAMM33 (56) 49 (56) 68 (55) 88 (53) 179 (49) 330 (45) 495 (41) 
BAMS45 (56) 78 (56) 106 (55) 129 (53) 224 (49) 364 (45) 510 (41) 
CONU26 (56) 44 (56) 59 (55) 69 (53)101 (49)195 (45)348 (41) 
GUNA24 (53) 41 (53) 53 (52)65 (50)103 (46)202 (42)360 (38) 
FSSE23 (52)42 (52) 50 (51)65 (49)107 (45)199 (41)355 (37) 
OFCL24 (56) 41 (56) 57 (55) 72 (53) 123 (49) 211 (45) 328 (41) 
NHC Official (1994-2003 mean)44 (3172) 78 (2894) 112 (2636) 146 (2368) 217 (1929) 248 (421) (2001-03 mean) 319 (341) (2001-03 mean) 


Table 5: Watch and warning summary for Hurricane Jeanne, 13-28 September 2004.
Date/TimeActionLocation
13/2100Tropical Storm Warning IssuedPuerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands 
13/2100Tropical Storm Watch IssuedBritish Virgin Islands, Saba, St. Eustatius and St. Maarten 
14/0900Tropical Storm Watch changed to Tropical Storm WarningSaba, St. Eustatius and St. Maarten 
14/1500Tropical Storm Watch changed to Tropical Storm WarningBritish Virgin Islands 
14/1500Tropical Storm Warning IssuedSt. Kitts and Nevis 
14/1500Tropical Storm Watch IssuedAnguilla 
14/1630Tropical Storm Watch IssuedCabrera to Isla Saona Dominican Republic 
14/2100Tropical Storm Warning changed to Hurricane WarningPuerto Rico and U.S.Virgin Islands 
14/2100Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning IssuedCabrera to Santo Domingo Dominican Republic 
14/2100Tropical Storm Warning DiscontinuedSaba,St. Eustatius and St. Maarten 
15/1500Hurricane Watch/Tropical Storm Warning changed to Hurricane WarningCabrera to Isla Saona Dominican Republic 
15/1500Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning extended westwardCabrera to Puerto Plata Dominican Republic 
15/1500Hurricane Watch IssuedBritish Virgin Islands 
15/2100Hurricane Watch IssuedSoutheastern Bahamas including Acklins and Crooked Islands, Inaguas, Mayaguana, Ragged Island, Turks and Caicos 
15/2100Tropical Storm Warning discontinuedSt. Kitts and Nevis 
15/2100Hurricane Warning changed to Tropical Storm WarningU.S. Virgin Islands 
16/0300Hurricane Warning extended westwardCabrera to Puerto Plata Dominican Republic 
16/0300Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning IssuedPuerto Plata to Monte Cristo Dominican Republic 
16/0300Hurricane Warning changed to Tropical Storm WarningPuerto Rico 
16/0300Tropical Storm Warning/Hurricane Watch discontinuedBritish Virgin Islands 
16/0300Tropical Storm warning discontinuedU.S. Virgin Islands 
16/0900Tropical Storm Warning discontinuedPuerto Rico 
16/1500Hurricane Watch changed to Hurricane WarningSoutheastern Bahamas including Acklins and Crooked Islands, Inaguas, Mayaguana, Ragged Island, Turks and Caicos 
16/1500Hurricane Watch IssuedCentral Bahamas including Cat Island, Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay and San Salvador 
16/1500Tropical Storm Warning IssuedLe Mole St Nicholas Haiti to Puerto Plata Dominican Republic 
16/2100Hurricane Warning changed to Tropical Storm WarningPuerto Plata to Isla Saona Dominican Republic 
16/2100Hurricane Watch discontinuedMonte Cristo to Puerto Plata, Isla Saona to Santo Domingo Dominican Republic 
17/2100Tropical Storm Warning discontinuedLe Mole St Nicholas Haiti to Santo Domingo Dominican Republic 
17/2100Hurricane Warning changed to Tropical Storm WarningSoutheastern Bahamas including Acklins and Crooked Islands, Inaguas, Mayaguana, Ragged Island, Turks and Caicos 
17/2100Hurricane Watch changed to Tropical Storm WatchCentral Bahamas including Cat Island, Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay and San Salvador 
19/1000Tropical Storm Warning discontinuedSoutheastern Bahamas including Acklins and Crooked Islands, Inaguas, Mayaguana, Ragged Island, Turks and Caicos 
19/1000Tropical Storm Watch discontinuedCentral Bahamas including Cat Island, Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay and San Salvador 
23/0900Tropical Storm Watch IssuedCentral Bahamas including Cat Island, Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay and San Salvador 
23/1730Hurricane Watch IssuedNorthwest Bahamas 
24/0900Hurricane Warning IssuedNorthwest Bahamas: Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island and New Providence 
24/0900Hurricane Watch IssuedFlorida City to St. Augustine, Florida 
24/0900Tropical Storm Warning IssuedCentral Bahamas: Cat Island, Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay and San Salvador 
24/2100Hurricane Watch changed to Hurricane WarningFlorida City to St. Augustine, Florida including Lake Okeechobee 
24/2100Hurricane Watch IssuedSt. Augustine, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia 
24/2100Tropical Storm Watch IssuedFlorida City to Anclote Key, Florida including the Florida Keys north of the Seven Mile Bridge 
25/0900Tropical Storm Watch changed to Tropical Storm WarningEast Cape Sable to Anclote Key, Florida 
25/0900Tropical Storm Watch extended northwardAnclote Key to Ochlockonee River, Florida 
25/1500Tropical Storm Warning IssuedSt. Augustine, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia 
25/1500Tropical Storm Warning extended northwardAnclote Key to Suwanee River, Florida 
25/1500Hurricane Watch IssuedEnglewood to Suwanee River, Florida 
25/2100Tropical Storm Warning extended northwardSuwanee River to Ochlockonee River, Florida 
25/2100Tropical Storm Warning discontinuedCentral Bahamas: Cat Island, Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay and San Salvador 
26/0300Tropical Storm Warning extended westwardOchlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida 
26/0300Hurricane Warning changed to Tropical Storm WarningAbacos, Island, Berry Islands, Bimini and Grand Bahama Island 
26/0300Hurricane Warning discontinuedAndros Island, Eleuthera and New Providence 
26/0900Hurricane Warning IssuedEnglewood to Suwanee River, Florida 
26/0900Tropical Storm Warning extended northwardIndian Pass to Destin, Florida 
26/0900Hurricane Warning discontinuedHallandale to Florida City, Florida 
26/0900Tropical Storm Warning discontinuedFlorida City to Chokoloskee, Florida including the Florida Keys north of the Seven Mile Bridge 
26/0900Tropical Storm Warning discontinuedNorthwest Bahamas: Abacos Island, Berry Islands, Bimini and Grand Bahama Island 
26/1300Hurricane Warning discontinuedHallandale to Deerfield Beach, Florida 
26/1500Hurricane Warning discontinuedDeerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet, Florida 
26/1500Hurricane Watch discontinuedSt. Augustine, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia 
26/1800Hurricane Warning discontinuedJupiter Inlet to Cocoa Beach, Florida 
26/1800Hurricane Warning changed to Tropical Storm WarningCocoa Beach to St. Augustine, Florida including Lake Okeechobee 
26/1800Hurricane Warning changed to Tropical Storm WarningEnglewood to Suwanee River, Florida 
26/1800Tropical Storm Warning discontinuedChokoloskee to Bonita Beach, Florida 
26/1800Tropical Storm Warning discontinuedBonita Beach to Englewood, Florida 
27/0300Tropical Storm Warning discontinuedApalachicola to Destin,Florida and Englewood to Anclote Key, Florida 
27/0900Tropical Storm Warning extended northwardAltamaha Sound, Georgia to Santee River, South Carolina 
27/0900Tropical Storm Warning discontinuedCocoa Beach to Flagler Beach, Florida 
27/1500Tropical Storm Warning discontinuedAnclote Key to Apalachicola, Florida 
27/1800All coastal warnings discontinued 

Best track positions for Hurricane Jeanne

Figure 1: Best track positions for Hurricane Jeanne, 13-28 September 2004.

Selected wind observations and best track maximum sustained surface wind speed curve for Hurricane Jeanne

Figure 2: Selected wind observations and best track maximum sustained surface wind speed curve for Hurricane Jeanne, 13-28 September 2004. Aircraft observations have been adjusted for elevation using 90%, 80%, and 80% reduction factors for observations from 700 mb, 850 mb, and 1500 ft, respectively. Dropwindsonde observations include actual 10 m winds, as well as surface estimates derived from the mean wind over the lowest 150 m of the wind sounding (LLM), and from the sounding boundary layer mean (MBL). Objective Dvorak estimates represent linear averages over a three-hour period centered on the nominal observation time.

Selected pressure observations and best track minimum central pressure curve for Hurricane Jeanne

Figure 3: Selected pressure observations and best track minimum central pressure curve for Hurricane Jeanne, 13-28 September 2004.



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Page last modified: Tuesday, 15-Mar-2005 21:06:17 UTC