Tropical Cyclone Report

Hurricane Javier

Javier's winds reached 130 kt, making Javier the strongest hurricane of the 2004 eastern North Pacific hurricane season.

a. Synoptic History

Javier originated from a tropical wave that crossed the west coast of Africa 29 August. The wave was devoid of deep convection for several days during its westward trek across the tropical Atlantic. It then interacted with an upper-low near the Lesser Antilles, and both systems moved westward across the Caribbean Sea. The upper-low weakened and the wave continued westward, and it crossed Central America on 9 September with an increase in convective activity. Once the wave entered the eastern Pacific, the cloud pattern became better organized with deep convection but limited upper-level outflow. Dvorak T-numbers suggested that a tropical depression formed at 1800 UTC 10 September about 300 n mi south-southeast of Salina Cruz, Mexico. Satellite images showed that a central cense overcast developed over the circulation center, and intensity estimates based on this cloud pattern indicate that the cyclone became a tropical storm at 1200 UTC 11 September.

Under light wind shear, Javier continued to strengthen and reached hurricane status at 1800 UTC 12 September. It then moved slowly between the west-northwest and northwest around the periphery of a subtropical ridge centered over Mexico. Thereafter, Javier intensified at a rapid rate as indicated by the quick development of a distinct eye. The hurricane reached its estimated peak intensity of 130 knots and a minimum pressure of 930 mb at 0000 UTC 14 September, when the cyclone was located about 270 n mi south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Microwave data showed the formation of concentric eyewalls and Javier weakened, but it maintained category 3 intensity on the Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale for the next three days. Javier moved northwestward toward cool waters, and this along with strong southwesterly shear resulted in weakening. Javier then turned northward and north-northeastward, and as a weakening tropical depression crossed Baja California between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Abreojos around 1100 UTC 19 September. The depression continued toward the north-northeast over the Sea of Cortes and weakened to a remnant low at 1800 UTC 19 September. The low moved inland near Guaymas, Mexico, and dissipated over the high terrain of the state of Sonora. Mid-level moisture from Javier spread northeastward over northern Mexico and the southwestern United States.

The "best track" chart of the tropical cyclone's path is given in Figure 1, with the wind and pressure histories shown in Figure 2 and Figure 3, respectively. The best track positions and intensities are listed in Table 1.

b. Meteorological Statistics

Observations in Javier (Figure 2 and Figure 3) include satellite-based Dvorak technique intensity estimates from the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB), the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB). Microwave satellite imagery from NOAA polar-orbiting satellites, the NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), the NASA QuikSCAT, and Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites were also useful in tracking Javier.

Ship reports of winds of tropical storm force associated with Javier are given in Table 2.

c. Casualty and Damage Statistics

There were no reports of damage or casualties associated with Javier.

d. Forecast and Warning Critique

Average official track errors (with the number of cases in parentheses) for Javier were 24 (34), 42(32), 60 (30), 71(28), 105(24), 137(20), and 196(16) n mi for the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h forecasts, respectively. These errors are smaller than the average official track errors for the 10-yr period 1994-2003^[1] of 38, 70, 100, 127, 180, 210, and 247 n mi, respectively. Table 3 shows the track errors associated with selected operational models. Note that the official track errors were smaller than nearly all models.

Average official intensity errors were 8, 15, 19, 22, 18, 25 and 27 kt for the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h forecasts, respectively. For comparison, the average official intensity errors over the 10-yr period 1994-2003 are 6, 11, 15, 17, 20, 18, and 19 kt, respectively. Note that the average official errors are larger than the 10-yr period errors. This is related to Javier's rapid intensification, a process which in general is difficult to forecast.

Tropical storm watches and warnings were required for portions of Baja California and a summary is included in Table 4.

^[1]Errors given for the 96 and 120 h periods are averages over the three-year period 2001-3.

Figure 1: Best track positions for Hurricane Javier, 10-19 September, 2004.

Figure 2: Selected wind observations and best track maximum sustained surface wind speed curve for Hurricane Javier, 10-19 September, 2004.

Figure 3: Selected pressure observations and best track minimum central pressure curve for Hurricane Javier, 10-19 September, 2004.