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Tropical Cyclone Report

Hurricane Frances

25 August - 8 September 2004

John L. Beven II
National Hurricane Center
17 December 2004

Frances was a Cape Verde-type hurricane that reached a peak intensity of category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. It affected the Bahamas as a category 3 hurricane and the Florida east coast as a category 2 hurricane.

a. Synoptic History

Frances developed from a vigorous tropical wave that moved westward from the coast of Africa on 21 August. Convection associated with the wave gradually became better organized, and the first Dvorak satellite intensity estimates were made on 24 August. A tropical depression formed from the wave near 0000 UTC 25 August about 655 n mi west-southwest of the southern Cape Verde Islands. The "best track" chart of the tropical cyclone's path is given in Figure 1, with the wind and pressure histories shown in Figure 2 and Figure 3, respectively. The best track positions and intensities are listed in Table 1.

The depression moved westward on the south side of the Bermuda-Azores high and intensified, becoming a tropical storm later on 24 August. Frances turned west-northwestward on 26 August as it became a hurricane, and that heading and the intensification continued until 28 August, when Frances reached a first peak intensity estimated at 115 kt. The hurricane turned westward late on 29 August while it slowly weakened during a concentric eyewall cycle. Re-intensification began on 30 August, and Frances reached a second peak intensity of 125 kt (category 4) late on 31 August as it passed north of the Leeward and Virgin Islands. The hurricane moved west-northwestward on 1-2 September, which brought the center just north of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahama Islands. The maximum winds remained 120-125 kt during this time while the hurricane underwent a series of concentric eyewall cycles. Moderate westerly vertical shear developed later on 2 September, and Frances weakened notably during the next two days. It was a category 3 hurricane, with winds of 100-110 kt, over the central Bahama Islands on 2-3 September and a category 2 hurricane, with winds of 85-90 kt, over the northwestern Bahamas on 3-4 September.

Steering currents weakened as Frances reached the northwestern Bahamas due to a high pressure ridge building west of the cyclone. This caused storm moved slowly westward across the Gulf Stream on 4 September. The shear weakened, which allowed slight re-intensification over the Gulf Stream, followed by slight weakening just before Frances made landfall over the southern end of Hutchinson Island, Florida near 0430 UTC 5 September as a Category 2 hurricane. Frances gradually weakened as it moved slowly west-northwestward across the Florida Peninsula, and became a tropical storm just before emerging into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico near New Port Richey early on 6 September.

Frances did not strengthen over the Gulf, with maximum sustained winds remaining 50-55 kt with a pressure near 982 mb. It moved northwestward and made a final landfall near the mouth of the Aucilla River in the Florida Big Bend region about 1800 UTC 6 September. The northwestward motion continued until 7 September, when Frances re-curved northeastward into the westerlies over eastern Alabama and western Georgia. Frances weakened to a tropical depression early on 7 September and then became extratropical over West Virginia early on 9 September. As an extratropical cyclone, Frances briefly had gale-force winds as it accelerated northeastward across New York later on 9 September. The cyclone turned eastward across northern New England and southeastern Canada, dissipating over the Gulf of St. Lawrence late on 10 September.

b. Meteorological Statistics

Observations in Frances (Figure 2 and Figure 3) include satellite-based Dvorak technique intensity estimates from the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB), the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) and the U. S. Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA), as well as flight-level and dropwindsonde observations from flights of the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron of the U. S. Air Force Reserve Command. Microwave satellite imagery from NOAA polar-orbiting satellites, the NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), the NASA QuikSCAT, the NASA Aqua, and Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites were also useful in tracking Frances. Additionally, WSR-88D Doppler radars in Puerto Rico and the southeastern United States provided detailed data on Frances, as did a U. S. Department of Defense radar located in the Bahamas.

The Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunters flew 34 operational missions for Frances, including standard reconnaissance and synoptic surveillance. The aircraft made a total of 59 formal fixes of Frances - 56 from the Air Force and 3 from NOAA. A NOAA aircraft reported winds of 144 kt at a flight level of 8000 ft at 1726 UTC 31 August, while Air Force aircraft measured winds of 138 kt at 700 mb at 1114 UTC 31 August and again at 0543 UTC 2 September. A dropwindsonde in the northern eyewall reported winds peak of 166 kt at a level of 904 mb near 0539 UTC 2 September. The lowest aircraft-measured pressure was 935 mb at 0712 UTC 1 September, with a 936 mb pressure reported at 0718 UTC 2 September. Several research flights also occurred, with one such mission deploying a series of drifting buoys that reported useful pressure and sea surface temperature data from Frances as well as the subsequent Hurricane Jeanne.

Frances brought hurricane conditions to much of the central and northwestern Bahamas, southeastern Florida, and the adjacent Atlantic. Ship reports of winds of tropical storm force associated with Frances are given in Table 2, and selected surface observations from land stations and data buoys are given in Table 3. The maximum sustained wind reported from a land station was 87 kt at North Eleuthera in the northwestern Bahamas at 1000 UTC 3 September. The Coastal Marine Automated Network (C-MAN) station at Settlement Point on Grand Bahama Island reported a 10-minute mean wind of 73 kt at 2320 UTC 4 September and a peak gust of 96 kt. San Salvador in the Central Bahamas reported a peak gust of 104 kt at 1900 UTC 2 September. In Florida, an Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) station at Port Mayaca reported sustained winds of 74 kt at 0500 UTC 5 September, while a portable instrumented tower run by the Florida Coastal Monitoring Program (FCMP) at Ft. Pierce reported 70 kt sustained winds at 0402 UTC 5 September along with a peak gust of 94 kt. Unofficial reports include a sustained wind of 70 kt from the Jupiter police department and a gust to 94 kt in Martin County. It should be noted that a gust of 108 kt at Port Canaveral that was reported operationally was found to be unreliable in post-analysis.

Shipping mostly avoided Frances as it crossed the Atlantic. The highest winds reported by a ship were 43 kt from a ship with the call sign C6FV9 at 1200 UTC 5 September. Two drifting buoys reported sustained winds of 78 kt, although the reliability of these reports is uncertain.

The lowest reported pressure from a land station was 948.1 mb at San Salvador in the Bahamas at 2000 UTC 2 September. North Eleuthera reported a minimum pressure of 958.6 mb at 1400 UTC 3 September, while Settlement Point reported a minimum pressure of 963.2 mb at 1600 UTC 4 September. In Florida, the USACE station at St. Lucie lock reported a minimum pressure of 962.1 mb at 0600 UTC 5 September, while the FCMP tower at Port Salerno reported a minimum pressure of 962.8 mb at 0550 UTC that day. A storm chaser on southern Hutchinson Island reported an unofficial pressure of 959.0 mb at 0525 UTC that day, while a second storm chaser at Sewall's Point reported a pressure of 962.0 mb at 0345 UTC that day. Additionally, a drifting buoy measured a pressure of 955.2 mb at 0307 UTC 2 September.

Frances produced notable storm surges along both the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of Florida. The highest measured storm surge was 5.89 ft above mean sea level on the Florida east coast at the St. Lucie Lock. The National Weather Service Melbourne Weather Forecast Office (WFO) estimated storm surge at 8 ft near Vero Beach and 6 ft around Cocoa Beach. Lesser storm surge values were estimated elsewhere along the Florida east coast, while storm surges of 1-2 ft above normal tide levels were reported as far north as the Georgia coast. Along the Gulf coast, a storm tide of 6 ft was estimated in Pinellas County, FL, while storm tides of 3-5 ft were estimated in the Florida Big Bend area.

Frances also produced significant storm surge on several of the Bahama Islands, which the inundated the airports at Freeport, Grand Bahama, and Marsh Harbor, Abaco. However, exact surge values are not available.

Frances caused widespread heavy rains and associated freshwater flooding over much of the eastern United States (Figure 4). The maximum reported rainfall was 18.07 in at Linville Falls, North Carolina (Table 4). This was part of a swath of rains in excess of 10 in along the Appalachian Mountains in western North Carolina and northeastern Georgia. Rainfalls in excess of 10 in also occurred over large portions of the central and northern Florida Peninsula and southeastern Georgia, with storm totals of 15.84 in at High Springs, FL, 15.81 in near Chassahowitzka, FL, and an unofficial total of 15.08 in at Port Orange, FL (Table 3). Storm-total rainfalls of 5-10 in were common elsewhere along Frances' track as a tropical cyclone, with reports of 3-6 in totals along the extratropical portion of the track.

A total of 101 tornadoes have been reported in association with Frances - 23 in Florida, 7 in Georgia, 45 in South Carolina, 11 in North Carolina, and 15 in Virginia. Many of the tornadoes occurred in an outbreak over South and North Carolina on 7 September.

c. Casualty and Damage Statistics

Frances is directly responsible for seven deaths - five in Florida, one in the Bahamas, and one in Ohio. Three deaths were caused by wind, two by storm surge, one by freshwater flooding, and one by lightning. The hurricane is indirectly responsible for 42 deaths - 32 in Florida, 8 in Georgia, 1 in the Bahamas, and 1 in Ohio.

The American Insurances Service Group reports that Frances causes $4.43 billion in damage to insured property in the United States, with $4.11 billion occurring in Florida. Applying a two-to-one ratio to this figure to account for damage to uninsured property yields a damage estimate of $8.86 billion. Additionally, space and military facilities in the Cape Canaveral area reported over $100 million dollars in property damage. Therefore, the best estimate of the total property damage from Frances is $9 billion, which in terms of unadjusted damage makes Frances the fourth most costly hurricane in United States history behind Andrew of 1992, and Charley and Ivan of 2004. This total does not include agricultural or economic losses. Widespread property damage also occurred in the central and northwestern Bahama Islands. However, no monetary damage figures are available at this time.

d. Forecast and Warning Critique

The overall track forecast errors for Frances were exceptionally good. Average official track errors (with the number of cases in parentheses) were 20 (53), 36 (53), 52 (53), 66 (52), 80 (48), 100 (44), and 128 (40) n mi for the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h forecasts, respectively. These errors are 50-70% lower than the average official track errors for the 10-yr period 1994-2003[1] (44, 78, 112, 146, 217, 248, and 319 n mi, respectively), (Table 5). Not only are the average track forecast errors outstanding, but only five of the individual track forecasts at any time exceeded the long-term average errors - two 12-h forecasts, one 36-h forecast, and two 96-h forecasts. As good as the official track forecasts were, they were bettered by some of the numerical guidance. The lowest track forecast errors amongst the guidance were from the Florida State University Superensemble (FSSE), which on average outperformed the official forecast at all times.

Some of the low track forecast errors can be attributed to Frances' long track south of the subtropical ridge and the occasionally slow motion, both of which favor low track forecast errors. However, the forecast errors stayed relatively low through the time where Frances slowed near the Bahamas and turned northwestward across Florida - which were tougher forecast scenarios.

The average intensity forecast errors were also smaller than normal. Average official intensity errors were 2, 7, 10, 13, 15, 14, 14, and 16 kt for the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h forecasts, respectively. For comparison, the average official intensity errors over the 10-yr period 1994-2003 are 6, 10, 12, 15, 19, 20, and 21 kt, respectively. While the average errors were low, there were two periods of rather large forecast errors. The first was early in Frances' life when the amount of intensification was underforecast. The second was as Frances approached the Bahamas when the impact of the vertical shear was underestimated, resulting in a series of forecast intensities that were too strong.

Table 6 shows the watches and warnings issued for Frances. A hurricane watch was issued for the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands at 0900 UTC 31 August, with a hurricane warning issued 6 h later. These were 33 and 27 h respectively before the closest approach of the center to the Turks and Caicos. A hurricane watch was issued for the central Bahamas at 1500 UTC 31 August, while a hurricane warning was issued at 1500 UTC 1 September. These were 52 and 28 h respectively before the arrival of the center at San Salvador Island. A hurricane watch was issued for the northwestern Bahamas at 1500 UTC 1 September, with a hurricane warning issued at 0000 UTC 2 September. These were 43 and 34 h respectively before the arrival of the center at Eleuthera Island.

In the United States, a hurricane watch was issued for the east coast of Florida at 0300 UTC 2 September, with a hurricane warning following at 1500 UTC that day. These were 73 and 61 h respectively before the center reached Hutchinson Island. Along the Gulf coast, a tropical storm watch was issued for the eventual landfall area at 1500 UTC 4 September, with a tropical storm warning following 6 h later. These were 51 and 45 h respectively before the center reached the Aucilla River.

A series of watches and warnings were issued for the islands of the northeastern Caribbean in anticipation that Frances would come close enough to produce tropical storm conditions. Also, a hurricane warning was issued for portions of the Florida Gulf coast in anticipation that Frances would maintain hurricane strength all the way across the Florida Peninsula, or re-intensify over the Gulf of Mexico. These watches and warnings did not verify.

Acknowledgements

Much of the data for this report was supplied by the National Weather Service WFOs in Key West, Miami, Tampa, Melbourne, Jacksonville, and Tallahassee FL, as well as by the South Florida Water Management District, the St. John's River Water Management District, and the Florida Automated Weather Network (FAWN). NOAA buoy and C-MAN data were provided by the National Data Buoy Center. NOS data were provided by the NOAA National Ocean Service. Remote Automated Weather Stations (RAWS) data were provided by the National Interagency Fire Center. United States Geological Survey (USGS) data were provided by the NWISWeb web site. The rainfall map and much of the supplementary rainfall data was provided by David Roth of the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. Much of the tornado data was provided by the Storm Prediction Center. Several of the unofficial observations were obtained from the Weather Underground web site.


[1]Errors given for the 96 and 120 h periods are averages over the three-year period 2001-3.

Table 1: Best track for Hurricane Frances, 25 August - 8 September 2004.
Date/Time
(UTC)
PositionPressure
(mb)
Wind Speed
(kt)
Stage
Lat.
(°N)
Lon.
(°W)
 25 / 0000 11.1 35.2 1009 25 tropical depression
 25 / 0600 11.2 36.8 1008 30 "
 25 / 1200 11.3 38.3 1007 30 "
 25 / 1800 11.5 39.8 1005 35 tropical storm
 26 / 0000 11.9 41.5 1003 40 "
 26 / 0600 12.3 42.9 1000 45 "
 26 / 1200 12.8 44.5 994 55 "
 26 / 1800 13.3 45.8 987 65 hurricane
 27 / 0000 13.7 46.8 984 70 "
 27 / 0600 14.2 47.8 980 75 "
 27 / 1200 14.7 48.5 970 90 "
 27 / 1800 15.4 49.3 962 100 "
 28 / 0000 15.9 50.0 962 100 "
 28 / 0600 16.6 50.9 962 100 "
 28 / 1200 17.2 51.6 958 105 "
 28 / 1800 17.7 52.3 948 115 "
 29 / 0000 18.1 52.9 948 115 "
 29 / 0600 18.4 53.6 948 115 "
 29 / 1200 18.6 54.4 948 115 "
 29 / 1800 18.8 55.0 948 110 "
 30 / 0000 18.9 55.8 954 105 "
 30 / 0600 19.0 56.8 958 100 "
 30 / 1200 19.2 58.1 956 100 "
 30 / 1800 19.4 59.3 948 110 "
 31 / 0000 19.6 60.7 946 110 "
 31 / 0600 19.8 62.1 950 115 "
 31 / 1200 20.0 63.5 949 120 "
 31 / 1800 20.3 65.0 942 125 "
 01 / 0000 20.6 66.4 941 120 "
 01 / 0600 21.0 67.9 939 120 "
 01 / 1200 21.4 69.1 937 120 "
 01 / 1800 21.8 70.4 941 120 "
 02 / 0000 22.2 71.4 939 120 "
 02 / 0600 22.7 72.5 937 125 "
 02 / 1200 23.2 73.5 939 120 "
 02 / 1800 23.8 74.3 948 115 "
 03 / 0000 24.2 75.0 948 105 "
 03 / 0600 24.7 75.7 954 100 "
 03 / 1200 25.3 76.3 958 95 "
 03 / 1800 25.7 77.1 960 90 "
 04 / 0000 26.0 77.5 960 85 "
 04 / 0600 26.4 77.9 960 85 "
 04 / 1200 26.8 78.5 962 90 "
 04 / 1800 26.8 79.1 962 90 "
 05 / 0000 27.0 79.4 958 95 "
 05 / 0600 27.2 80.2 960 90 "
 05 / 1200 27.4 80.7 969 80 "
 05 / 1800 27.8 81.7 975 60 tropical storm
 06 / 0000 28.1 82.3 978 55 "
 06 / 0600 28.6 83.3 981 55 "
 06 / 1200 29.2 83.7 982 55 "
 06 / 1800 30.1 84.0 982 50 "
 07 / 0000 31.0 84.6 984 35 "
 07 / 0600 31.5 85.0 988 30 tropical depression
 07 / 1200 32.0 85.2 992 25 "
 07 / 1800 32.5 85.1 996 25 "
 08 / 0000 33.4 84.7 998 25 "
 08 / 0600 34.3 84.3 1000 25 "
 08 / 1200 36.1 83.2 1001 25 "
 08 / 1800 37.8 82.1 1002 25 "
 09 / 0000 38.7 81.3 1001 25 extratropical
 09 / 0600 40.5 80.0 1001 30 "
 09 / 1200 42.8 77.7 1001 35 "
 09 / 1800 44.3 75.7 1002 30 "
 10 / 0000 45.3 73.3 1003 25 "
 10 / 0600 46.2 70.5 1004 20 "
 10 / 1200 46.6 67.3 1005 20 "
 10 / 1800 47.2 64.2 1005 20 "
 11 / 0000     dissipated
 01 / 0700 21.1 68.1 935 120 minimum pressure
 31 / 1800 20.3 65.0 942 125 maximum wind
 02 / 0730 22.8 72.8 936 125 "
 02 / 1930 24.0 74.5 948 110 landfall on San Salvador Island,Bahamas
 03 / 0530 24.6 75.6 954 100 landfall on northern end of Cat Island,Bahamas
 03 / 1000 25.1 76.1 956 95 landfall on Eleuthera Island,Bahamas
 04 / 1000 26.6 78.2 961 90 landfall on Grand Bahama Island,Bahamas
 05 / 0430 27.2 80.2 960 90 landfall at southern end of Hutchinson Island, FL
 06 / 1800 30.1 84.0 982 50 landfall at mouth of Aucilla River, FL


Table 2: Selected ship and drifting buoy reports with winds of at least 34 kt for Hurricane Frances, 25 August -8 September 2004
Ship Name or Call SignDate/Time (UTC)Lat.
(°N)
Lon.
(°W)
Wind dir/speed (deg/kt)Pressure (mb)
Buoy 4154401 / 070023.066.7090 / 37 1010.4 
Buoy 4154401 / 160023.166.7090 / 41 1015.2 
Buoy 4192701 / 160123.670.1080 / 93 1010.9 
Buoy 4154302 / 000024.070.7100 / 39 1008.1 
Buoy 4153902 / 000024.469.1090 / 35 1012.9 
Buoy 4154502 / 000024.470.4090 / 39 1011.0 
Buoy 4192202 / 030722.271.9N/A / 35 955.2 
Buoy 4154302 / 040024.170.7120 / 49 1009.7 
Anke-Angela02 / 060026.972.1090 / 36 1016.0 
Buoy 4154502 / 070024.470.4110 / 37 1010.8 
Buoy 4192502 / 072722.971.7130 / 70 989.3 
Buoy 4193402 / 090624.672.0N/A / 78 N/A 
Buoy 4193902 / 091022.271.2N/A / 52 N/A 
Buoy 4154202 / 180027.669.6N/A / 58 1016.0 
Buoy 4192702 / 184123.670.1N/A / 41 N/A 
Buoy 4192603 / 024323.169.1140 / 35 1014.6 
Buoy 4154103 / 070024.676.6320 / 49 986.7 
Buoy 4154203 / 070027.669.6130 / 51 1015.2 
Buoy 4154103 / 180024.576.4200 / 58 999.0 
Buoy 4154003 / 200027.978.6N/A / 78 1009.0 
Buoy 4192304 / 022724.171.4N/A / 49 1013.8 
Buoy 4154004 / 190028.379.2N/A / 49 998.3 
Zim California05 / 000029.077.6100 / 35 1012.0 
Saudi Abha05 / 060026.876.4140 / 37 1005.4 
C6FV905 / 120024.281.5260 / 43 1004.0 
Galveston Bay05 / 120027.373.8350 / 40 1013.0 
SHIP05 / 180025.083.4270 / 39 1004.7 
Maersk New Orleans06 / 000029.178.4120 / 35 1009.0 
KS00406 / 090025.880.1170 / 37 1006.9 
Chevron Arizona06 / 090027.586.1350 / 37 999.5 
Heidelberg Express06 / 150028.579.6130 / 39 1011.8 
Sea-Land Freedom06 / 180030.179.7160 / 36 1010.0 
Nordon06 / 180031.879.3120 / 35 1013.0 
Nordon07 / 000031.480.4120 / 37 1009.3 
Nanticoke09 / 030042.181.4050 / 38 1014.0 
Canadian Progress09 / 120042.780.1000 / 35 N/A 
3FFL810 / 060043.165.1180 / 35 1018.0 


Table 3: Selected surface observations for Hurricane Frances, 25 August - 8 September 2004.
Minimum
Sea-level
Pressure
Maximum Surface Wind Speed
(kt)
LocationDate/
Time
(UTC)
Press.
(mb)
Date/
Timea
(UTC)
Sust.
Windb
(kts)
Peak
Gust (kts)
Storm
Surgec
(ft)
Storm
Tided
(ft)
Rain
(storm total)
(in)
Bahamas
N. Eleuthera03/1400 958.6 03/1000 87     
N. Norman Reef (NOAA CREWS)03/0400 992.0 03/0100 37 53    
San Salvador02/2000 948.1 02/1900 59 104   5.47 
Alabama
Dothan (KDHN)07/0359 992.8 06/1937 32 45   1.00 
Florida
Alachual       4.71 
Altamonte Springs 7E USGS  05/1334  50    
Anclote  04/ N/A  61    
Apalachicola (KAAF)06/1823 991.5 06/0232 31 39   1.12 
Apalachicolai06/1906 991.8 05/2200  41  2.48  
Astor Bombing Range (KNAE)f05/1556 995.5 05/0535 28 39    
Avalonl       5.98 
Big Carlos Passf06/0000 996.0 05/2012 40 51    
Big Cypressg05/0745 990.3 05/0802  40    
Bings Landingi05/2300 999.5     4.17  
Boca Raton (KBCT)  03/2030  50    
Brooksville (KBKV)06/0147 981.4 05/1755 33 47    
Buffalo Bluffi      3.49  
Bunnel (KX47)f  07/0544 30 39    
Cachej  05/1716  39    
Canal C-38/S65CWg05/1315 972.1 05/1315 35 58    
Canal C-38/S65DWXg05/1230 972.4 05/1115 35 65    
Cape Canaveral(KCCA)f  05/1119 31 48    
Cape Canaveralj  05/1715  52    
CCUTi05/2133 980.1 06/0615 44 55    
Cent. Miami-Dadeg05/0630 995.4 05/0456  59    
Chekikaj    47    
Citral       6.56 
Clearwater Beachi06/0000 984.1 05/1854 54 64  4.35  
Clewiston/CFSWg05/0815 981.7 05/0745 32 56    
Crescent Beachi      6.62  
Daytona Beach (KDAB)05/2000 994.9 05/1000 49 65   9.96 
E. Lake Okeechobee/L006g05/0730 975.3 05/0600 54 79   5.87 
E. Lake Okeechobee/LZ40g05/0730 972.6 05/0720  80    
Fernandina Beach (K55J)f  06/0855  38    
Fernandina Beachi06/0800 1002.7 06/0500  43 1.55 7.73  
Ft. Lauderdale Exe. (KFXE)  04/1848  48    
Ft. Lauderdale Int. (KFLL)05/0630 990.0 03/1916 36 48   4.26 
Ft. Myers (KFMY)05/1922 992.2 05/1859 32 42   2.89 
Ft. Myers (KRSW)05/1926 992.6 06/1010 31 40   4.44 
Ft. Myersi05/1836 991.9 05/0700  37  4.01  
Ft. Pierce (FCMP tower)  05/0402 70 94    
Ft. Piercel  05/0300 50    3.44 
Fred Howard  04/ N/A  61    
Gainesville (KGNV)06/0044 991.0 05/2200 41 56   10.81 
Hastingsl  05/0815 36    8.35 
Indian Harbor Beach (FCMP tower)05/1259 981.9 05/1455 46 68    
Jacksonville Cecil Field (KVQQ)  06/0034 27 39   9.17 
Jacksonville Craig Exe. (KCRG)f06/0753 998.6 05/2053 29 52   7.10 
Jacksonville I-295i      3.68  
Jacksonville Int. (KJAX)06/0922 998.2 06/0017 38 54   9.13 
Jacksonville Main St.i      4.50  
Jacksonville NAS (KNIP)06/0655 997.6 05/2246 42 54   6.37 
Kenansvillel       6.44 
Key West Intl. (KEYW)05/0953 1002.9 05/1640 31 38   1.58 
Key West NAS (KNQX)05/0955 1002.9 05/1033  43   1.65 
Key Westi05/1000 1003.6 04/2000  43 0.3 2.22  
Lake Apopkak  05/1330  43    
Lake City (KLCQ)06/1439 994.5 06/1909 29 41    
Lake Tohopekaligag05/1545 976.0 05/1345 48 71    
Lake Wales Ridgej  05/1246  43    
Lake Winderk  05/1245  52    
Leesburg (KLEE)f05/1859 988.5 05/1949  52   6.46 
Live Oakl       8.10 
Loxahatchee/LXWSg05/0530 979.1 05/0600 49 76    
Marathon (KMTH)05/0853 1001.7 05/1928  37   1.57 
Mariana (KMAI)06/2323 990.8 06/1424 32 43   1.01 
Matanzas Riveri      6.88  
Mayport (KNRB)06/0955 997.6 06/0144 45 55   5.15 
Mayporti      6.35  
Mayport (Bar Pilots Dock)i06/0724 1001.7 06/0518 36 49  5.96  
Mayport (Degaussing Structure)i06/0800 1001.4 06/0900 35 51    
McKay Bayi  06/1318 38 55    
Melbourne (KMLB)f05/1858 995.9 04/2358  63   7.95 
Merrit Island AirportN/A 984.0 05/0935 64 78    
Miami Int. (KMIA)05/0807 995.0 05/1932 37 51   3.49 
Miami WFO  04/1940  44   3.09 
Naples (KAPF)  05/2007 33 47   1.06 
Naplesi05/0900 996.3 05/1200 36 47  4.30  
NASA Tower 19h  05/1040 59 82    
NASA Tower 22h  05/1150 55 72    
NASA Tower 110h  05/1210 49 78    
N. Lake Okeechobee/L001g05/1000 969.5 05/0715 62 83   5.84 
NW Browardg05/0745 986.9 04/2040  53    
NW Collierg05/0900 994.6 05/1810  47    
Oasisj  04/2134  41    
Ocala (KOCF)05/2255 987.8 05/1955  43   10.81 
Ochopeej  05/0636  39    
Ocklawahal       8.94 
Okahumpkal       7.35 
Opa Locka (KOPF)05/0548 993.0 05/1730 37 47   3.43 
Orlando Int. (KMCO)f05/1052 989.4 05/0848 47 60   6.50 
Panama City (KPFN)06/1835 993.9 05/2241 36 53   0.49 
Panama City Beachi06/2200 995.4 07/0700  39    
Pembroke Pines (KHWO)05/0542 992.0 05/0035 35 47   5.04 
Perry (K40J)06/1615 987.1 06/1701 32 41   3.54 
Piersonl       9.05 
Ponce Inletk  05/2215  36    
Port Manateei      4.63  
Port Mayaca (USACE)05/0645 964.7 05/0500 74     
Port St. Lucie (Texas Tech tower)  05/0329 67 83    
Port Salerno (FCMP tower)05/0550 962.8 05/0240 49 71    
Punta Gorda (KPGD)05/1905 989.2 06/0538 40 50    
Putnam Halll       11.64 
Racy Pojnti  05/2100  55    
Red Bay Pointi      3.28  
St. Augustine (KSGJ)05/2205 999.0 05/2015 41 53    
St. Lucie Lock (USACE)05/0600 962.1 05/0330 37  5.89   
St. Petersburg (KPIE)05/2216 982.4 06/0619 38 49   5.41 
St. Petersburg (KSPG)05/2147 981.4 06/0101 38 50   6.27 
St. Petersburgi05/2054 981.7 06/0612 36 47  5.02  
Sanford (KSFB)f05/1457 989.8 04/2313 44 61   4.40 
Sarasota (KSRQ)05/2132 984.4 06/0850 36 46   4.69 
Seminole Cnty. Stn. 2205/1214 988.8 05/1451  51   5.98 
Seminole Cnty. Stn. 3505/1514 989.5 05/1257  50   5.77 
Skyway Bridge  05/1418  55    
SW Palm Beachg05/0630 986.9 05/0456  59    
Space Coast Regional Arpt. (Texas Tech tower)  05/1529 60 78    
Summerland Key Marine Lab  05/1710 31 37   2.07 
Tallahassee (KTLH)06/1910 984.4 05/1938 41 52   2.48 
Tamiami Exe. (KTMB)05/0827 996.0 05/2141 41 49   2.33 
Tampa (KTPA)05/2225 980.0 05/1905 39 47   5.74 
Tavaresl       7.37 
Tenrawj  05/0723  44    
Trident Pieri05/1300 989.1 05/1224 41 57  7.08  
Umatillal       8.86 
Vaca Keyi05/0900 1001.7 05/0300  36 1.0 2.22  
Vero Beach (FCMP tower)  05/0435 49 71    
Vero Beach (Texas Tech tower)  05/0907 59 73    
Vilano Beachi05/2300 999.5 05/2300 33 53    
Virginia Keyi05/0600 994.5 05/0836 38 49  3.01  
Virginia Key AOML05/0551 992.0 04/2031  53   2.84 
W. Cent. Collierg05/1100 996.6 05/0601  41    
W. Lake Okeechobee/L005g05/0915 980.1 05/0845 52 78   3.53 
West Palm Beach (KPBI)05/0508 972.0 05/0656 56 71   13.56 
Winter Haven (KGIF)f06/1602 977.3 06/1559 40 50    
WRWXg05/1630 976.1 05/1510  59    
Georgia
Albany (KABY)07/0042 991.8 06/1942 38 59   4.53 
Alma (KAMG)07/0002 996.9 07/0237 35 39   6.46 
Atlanta Hartsfield Int. (KATL)07/2151 998.3 07/0800  45   3.02 
Bainbridge (KBGE)  06/1620  37    
Brasstownj  07/1206  39    
Byromvillej  07/0005  37    
Brunswick (KBQK)06/2319 1002.3 06/0221 27 38    
Columbus (KCSG)07/0751 994.4 07/0251  39   3.53 
Cookj  06/1804  34    
Douglas (KDQH)06/2259 995.2 06/2259  35    
Ft. Benning (KLSF)07/0655 994.1 07/0155  39   3.90 
Ft. Pulaskii  06/1148 32 39  7.97  
Gainesville (KGVL)08/0553 1000.1 07/1008  34   4.56 
Gannett Lake (USFL)  06/0400  36    
Helen 7Nj       11.06 
Macon (KMCN)07/0753 998.5 07/0337  44   5.66 
Newnanj  07/0702  36    
Plainsj  06/2003  35   6.87 
St. Simon's Island (KSSI)06/2300 1001.9 06/1807 37 47   3.45 
St. Simons Islandi     2.06 8.35  
Savannah (KSAV)07/2253 1004.8 06/2219  35   2.37 
Savannah Hunter USAAF (KSVN)07/2255 1005.1 06/2155  38   4.51 
Valdosta (KVLD)06/2105 993.2 06/0127 31 45   6.43 
Waycross (KAYS)06/2320 997.3 07/0140  39    
Waycrossj  06/2304  40   6.64 
Waycross 9SE (USFL)  05/0204  45    
NOAA Buoy/C-MAN
Buoy 4100807/2250 1004.8 06/0650 33 45    
Buoy 41009f05/1320 990.8 05/1450 52 66    
Buoy 4101004/2320 1003.6 04/1350 39 52    
Buoy 4101206/0050 1002.7 06/0100 41e 54    
Buoy 4203606/0850 989.6 06/0220 42e 55    
Buoy 4203906/1950 998.1 06/0450 33 41    
Buoy 4501209/1500 1002.0 09/1000 35 43    
Cedar Key, FL (CDRF1)06/1000 987.6 06/1120 43e 59    
Duck, NC (DUCN7)08/2300 1011.9 08/1940 25e 34    
Dunkirk, NY (DBLN6)09/1000 1002.2 09/1100 36 47    
Folly Beach, SC (FBIS1)08/0700 1008.4 06/1400 33 39    
Fowey Rocks, FL (FWYF1)05/0600 996.1 04/2000 53e 66    
Keaton Beach, FL (KTNF1)06/1600 985.6 06/1740 35e 45    
Lake Worth, FL (LKWF1)05/0500 972.5 05/0700 54 73    
Long Key, FL (LONF1)05/0800 1000.7 05/0200 34 45 0.5 1.67  
Molasses Reef, FL (MLRF1)05/0800 998.4 05/0940 42e 59    
St. Augustine, FL (SAUF1)05/2200 999.0 05/2200 56 71    
Sand Key, FL (SANF1)05/1000 1002.7 05/1840 37e 55    
Settlement Point, GBI (SPGF1)04/1600 963.2 04/2320 73e 96    
Sombrero Key, FL (SMKF1)05/0800 1002.6 05/1740 46e 81  2.23  
Tyndall Tower, Fl (SGOF1)06/1600 992.2 06/0450 48e 58    
USF COMPS Stations
Buoy NA205/2210 989.5 05/1810 39 47    
Aripeka (APK)06/0212 979.2     4.64  
Egmont Key (EGK)  05/1936 45 54  4.02  
Homosassa (HOM)06/0318 983.5 06/1724 47 57  4.51  
New Port Richey (PAS)06/0136 979.6 05/1712 31 44  4.90  
North Florida Bay (NFB)05/0624 999.6 05/0048 33 42 0.5 4.96  
Shell Point (SHP)06/1706 992.7     4.92f  
Tarpon Springs (TAS)06/0036 980.7 05/2030  42  4.04  
Skidaway Institute Stations
Tower R207/2328 1005.7 06/1028 39 47    
Tower R607/2100 1007.6 07/1300 35 47    
Tower R807/2132 1006.3 06/0632 33 39    
Unofficial Observations
Florida
Alligator Pointm06/1719 984.6 05/1920  48    
Arlingtonm06/0730 1000.6 06/0625  36    
Boca Raton  03/2030  50    
Boca Raton Wtr Treatment  03/2054  61    
Boynton BeachN/A 977.3 04/1420  61    
Boynton Beach  04/1723  66    
Boynton Beach       9.56 
Clearwaterm  06/1445 34 56    
Clermontm05/1835 984.0 05/1600  56    
Delray  04/1835  52    
Deerfield Beach       8.00 
Dunedinm05/2315 982.3 05/1515  42    
Flagler Beach FD05/2300 994.9 04/1730  63    
Golden Beach  04/1743  50    
Holderm06/0030 987.7 06/0700  39    
Jacksonvillem06/0700 1000.2 06/0512  40    
Juno Beachm05/0345 963.7 05/0830  55    
Jupiter PD  04/1655 70 78    
Jupiter Inlet  04/1300  79    
Kendall  04/1900  57    
Kendall  04/1940  64    
Largom05/2100 981.9 05/1700  36    
Lawtey       13.50 
MacClenny06/0840 998.0 06/0010  41   10.25 
Martin County  05/1145  92    
Melbourne       7.04 
Miamim05/0617 995.1 05/0729  50    
New Port Richeym06/0045 980.2 05/1630  43    
Odessam06/0000 979.6 05/1830  37    
Orlando Azalea Parkm05/1537 988.0 05/1305  50    
Orlando Pine Hillsm05/1815 987.7   46    
Ormond Beach PD  05/1620  50    
Oviedo       9.00 
Port Orange       15.08 
Riviera Beach  04/0510  66    
St. James Citym05/1847 993.5 05/1350  37    
St. Petersburg Beachm05/2115 981.6 06/1110  50    
Sebastienm05/1228 974.5 05/1128  71    
Sewall's Point05/0345 962.0 05/0226 63 85    
S. Hutchinson Island05/0525 959.0       
S. Lakeland05/2100 972.3 05/1800  63   12.01 
Starkem06/0600 996.8 06/1600  35    
Tampa Bay Crestm  06/1230  50    
Tampa University Villagem05/2242 977.2 05/1527 37 57    
Taylor       10.00 
The Villagesm06/0000 987.7 05/1600  37    
Valricom05/2030 974.5 05/1210  49    
West Pasco06/0400 990.6       
Georgia
Harris  07/0245  41    
aDate/time is for sustained wind when both sustained and gust are listed.
bExcept as noted, sustained wind averaging periods for C-MAN and land-based ASOS reports are 2 min; buoy averaging periods are 8 min.
cStorm surge is water height above normal astronomical tide level.
dStorm tide is water height above National Geodetic Vertical Datum (1929 mean sea level).
e 10-min average wind.
fIncomplete record.
g South Florida Water Management station - 15-min average sustained wind.
hNASA towers are at the Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station; elevation 54 ft; all tower records are incomplete.
iNational Ocean Service station - sustained wind averaging periods are 6 min.
jRAWS station.
kSt. John's River Water Management District station.
lFAWN station.
mData from Weather Underground web site.


Table 4: Supplemental storm-total rainfall observations for Hurricane Frances, 25 August - 8 September 2004.
StationStorm-total Rainfall (in)
Florida
Alapaha Tower (ALAF1)4.79
Andytown 2N4.13
Antioch (BKRF1)7.34
Apollo Beach 1SE (APBF1)6.34
Archbold (ACHF1)3.21
Archbold 3S (HCAF1)4.15
Avon Park 2E (APKF1)6.37
Avon Park 2W (AVPF1)6.57
Balm (BLMF1)7.01
Bartow (BARF1)5.98
Bartow 3N (LKAF1)5.83
Baxter (BAXF1)7.00
Bell 4WNW (BLLF1)7.96
Benton8.85
Big Pine Key3.28
Bowling Green 1S (PAYF1)6.21
Bradenton 1S (WCRF1)4.10
Bradenton 3SW (PSDF1)3.89
Bradenton 11ENE (RYEF1)4.87
Brandon 2E (BRDF1)5.99
Brooksville (HLKF1)10.82
Buckingham (OLGF1)3.77
Bushnell (BSWF1)7.70
Carrollwood 1N (BALF1)7.32
Carrollwood 1SW (WITF1)6.43
Chassahowitzka 1E (CHSF1)15.81
Chiefland 5SE (CHIF1)7.29
Clearwater (ALLF1)4.75
Cooper City4.22
Coral Springs (CSSF1)11.67
Coral Springs 11W4.03
Crescent City (CREF1)4.43
Cross City (KCTY)4.89
Dade City 2E (DCYF1)7.54
Deland11.26
Devils Garden5.55
Dowling Park (DOWF1)6.23
Dundee 1W (LKHF1)6.58
Dunedin (CCKF1)6.50
Dunedin 1SE (CRCF1)5.31
Dunnellon 3N (RASF1)10.60
Dunnellon 5 ESE (DLLF1)11.30
Durant 1E (LKMF1)7.71
Edgeville (EDGF1)4.71
Ellenton 2NE (GHMF1)4.88
Ellenton 3SE (CYSF1)6.16
Ellenton 9E (GCRF1)5.69
Federal Point (HASF1)8.73
Melbourne WFO8.11
Miami Beach3.74
Middleburg (MDDF1)8.70
Myakka City (MKAF1)4.80
Myakka Head 4NE (HORF1)6.10
Myakka Head 8W (MKHF1)3.95
Nocatee 5W (HCKF1)3.39
North Miami Beach3.71
North Port 2N (NPOF1)3.34
North Port 11NE (MRDF1)3.37
Ocala (OCAF1)11.05
Odessa 3SSW (ISFF1)6.85
Odessa 4S (CLKF1)6.21
Oldsmar 2W (TBFF1)5.63
Oldsmar 3NE (OLDF1)3.97
Ona (ONAF1)5.53
Oneco (ONEF1)4.22
Oneco 2SE (PDRF1)4.34
Orlando East7.91
Orange Springs 2SSW (OSPF1)13.63
Osprey 1E (OPRF1)3.05
Palatka (PTKF1)11.42
Palm Bay7.27
Palm Harbor 3NE (TRSF1)7.57
Palmetto 4NE (RUBF1)4.90
Penny Farms (PNYF1)8.73
Pinellas Park (SJOF1)4.88
Pinellas Park (PNBF1)4.31
Pinellas Park2SE (SAWF1)4.43
Plant City (PLCF1)4.00
Plant City 2S (PCTF1)7.21
Plymouth7.95
Polk City (PLKF1)6.57
Port Salerno8.68
Ridge Manor 2SE (WTRF1)8.11
Ruskin WFO (KTBW)5.53
Safety Harbor (SHBF1)4.80
St. Augustine Lighthouse (STAF1)5.20
St. Leo (STLF1)3.22
San Antonio 3S (SNTF1)8.14
Sanford7.54
Sarasota 5E (SRAF1)3.62
Seffner 2E (BKCF1)8.15
Starke (SRKF1)9.97
Suwannee 6NE (SWNF1)15.44
Tampa 2E (TBEF1)8.44
Tampa 4NE (HRIF1)8.07
Tampa By. Can. S-155 (TBCF1)7.92
Tampa By. Can. S-159 (TBAF1)7.17
Tampa By. Can. S-160 (TBBF1)6.39
Homerville (GAEMN)6.19
Homerville 5N (HMVG1)7.40
Jesup 8S (JSUG1)9.80
Lakeland (LAKG1)5.79
Leary 5ENE (LERG1)6.93
Lumber City (LBRG1)8.68
Madray Springs 2WNW (MRYG1)10.78
McIntyre 6SW (MCIG1)7.65
Metter 1SE (MTFG1)11.91
Moody AFB (KVAD)8.30
Mountain City 2N (MTCG1)8.10
Mountain City 2SW (MCTG1)9.34
Nahunta (GAEMN)9.22
Nahunta 6NE (NAHG1)10.64
Naseville (NSHG1)6.55
Offerman (OFFG1)9.34
Okefenokee 9SW (SWCG1)7.71
Patterson (PATG1)11.94
Peachtree City (KFFC)3.77
Pridgen (PRDG1)5.58
Redisville (REDG1)9.80
Statenville (STNG1)6.68
Sterling 3SW (STRG1)7.25
TallulaFalls (TLUG1)11.28
Tallulah Falls 1NE (TFLG1)10.03
Tugalo Dam (TUGG1)11.08
Warner Robbins AFB (KWRB)6.45
Waycross 4NE (AYSG1)6.86
Willacoochee 5ENE (WILG1)6.80
Woodbine (WBNG1)7.83
Yonah Dam (YNHG1)9.93
Alabama
Bleecker (BLEA1)3.20
South Carolina
Anderson (KAND)6.20
Caesars Head (CAES1)12.14
Calhoun Falls (CALS1)7.78
Calhoun Falls 5S (RBRS1)6.99
Chesnee 7 WSW (CNES1)6.58
Clemson (KCEU)6.34
Clemson University (CLES1)7.00
Columbia (KCAE)3.69
Columbia Downtown (KCUB)3.46
Gaffney 6E (GAFS1)6.61
Greenville-Spartanburg Arpt (KGSP)5.42
Greenwood (KGRD)4.61
Hartsville (HVLS1)6.33
Jackson 1S (RAWS)7.50
Jocassee (JCSS1)8.08
Lake Toxaway (LTYN7)10.87
Linville Falls (JSRN7)18.07
Mackall USAAF (KHFF)4.23
Maxton (KMEB)5.44
Monroe (KEQY)5.49
Morganton (MRGN7)7.35
Morganton (MGTN7)11.32
Mt.Pisgah (MTPN7)11.40
Nebo 7NE (NCVN7)11.04
New Bern (KEWN)5.10
Old Fort (OLFN7)9.62
Pisgah Forest (PISN7)7.51
Pleasant Gardens (PLGN7)8.67
Plumtree (PLMN7)8.52
Rich Mtn. (RCMN7)12.50
Roaring Creek (RCAN7)9.68
Rosman (RMNN7)9.62
Rosman 6E (CFFN7)12.98
Rutherfordton 3N (RUTN7)7.36
Sunburst (SNBN7)9.86
Triplett (TPHN7)8.07
Triplett (TPTN7)8.68
Tyron (TRYN7)10.29
Walker Top (WKTN7)13.64
Wilbar (WLBN7)7.16
Wilmington (KILM)3.12
Winston-Salem (KINT)3.82
Wisemans View (WISN7)10.78
Yancy (YNCN7)7.41
Tennessee
Leconte (MTLT1)3.46
Kentucky
Harlan (LYLK2)4.49
Jackson (KJKL)4.26
Virginia
Apple Orchard Mtn. (APEV2)10.24
Big Meadows (BGMV2)11.50
Buena Vista (BUVV2)5.61
Charlottesville (KCHO)3.03
Copper Hill (COHV2)8.12
Free Union (FRUV2)10.00
Galax Water Plant (GAAV2)5.83
Glasgow 1SE (GLAV2)7.13
Goshen (GOHV2)10.13
Hot Springs (HSPV2)5.32
Lexington (NOHV2)6.14
Mason Cove (MASV2)7.05
Mathews Arm (MATV2)10.00


Table 5: Preliminary forecast evaluation (heterogeneous sample) for Hurricane Frances, 25 August - 8 September 2004. Forecast errors (n mi) are followed by the number of forecasts in parentheses. Errors smaller than the NHC official forecast (OFCL) are shown in bold-face type. Verification includes the depression stage, but does not include the extratropical stage, if any.
Forecast TechniquePeriod (hours)
122436487296120
CLP527 (53) 58 (53) 96 (53) 144 (52) 266 (48) 402 (44) 535 (40) 
GFDI19 (53)34 (53)50 (53)68 (52) 108 (48) 156 (44) 222 (40) 
GFDL*22 (51) 33 (51)44 (51)61 (51)101 (48) 145 (44) 200 (40) 
GFNI27 (51) 49 (51) 74 (51) 94 (50) 140 (46) 204 (42) 290 (38) 
GFDN*33 (51) 52 (50) 74 (50) 97 (49) 129 (45) 186 (41) 263 (37) 
AF1I28 (48) 51 (48) 75 (48) 102 (47) 165 (43)   
AFW1*43 (25) 72 (25) 89 (25) 106 (24) 153 (22)   
COAI30 (32) 64 (32) 102 (32) 141 (30) 222 (27)   
COAL*30 (17) 53 (17) 92 (17) 119 (15) 193 (14)   
COEI34 (26) 74 (26) 119 (26) 165 (25)    
COCE*30 (14) 62 (14) 101 (13) 145 (13)    
LBAR19 (53)34 (53)45 (53)58 (52)88 (48) 114 (44) 134 (40) 
A98E28 (53) 49 (53) 76 (53) 123 (52) 261 (48) 382 (44) 475 (40) 
A9UK28 (26) 50 (26) 80 (26) 108 (25) 233 (23)   
BAMD21 (53) 35 (53)49 (53)61 (52)81 (48) 113 (44) 161 (40) 
BAMM24 (53) 43 (53) 64 (53) 81 (52) 104 (48) 126 (44) 159 (40) 
BAMS29 (52) 52 (52) 72 (52) 94 (52) 119 (48) 139 (44) 152 (40) 
NGPI29 (52) 52 (51) 74 (51) 94 (50) 132 (46) 191 (42) 272 (37) 
NGPS*29 (53) 52 (53) 76 (53) 92 (50) 122 (47) 169 (41) 253 (38) 
UKMI28 (52) 53 (52) 77 (52) 92 (51) 120 (47) 160 (43) 221 (39) 
UKM*33 (27) 49 (27) 77 (27) 97 (26) 128 (24) 161 (22) 211 (20) 
GFSI21 (52) 34 (52)48 (52)62 (51)91 (47) 118 (43) 155 (39) 
GFSO*22 (54) 34 (54)49 (54)62 (52)89 (48) 117 (44) 146 (40) 
AEMI24 (52) 38 (52) 49 (52)62 (51)87 (47) 114 (43) 149 (39) 
AEMN*30 (52) 42 (52) 55 (52) 66 (50) 87 (46) 110 (42) 132 (38) 
GUNS20 (51) 37 (51) 54 (51) 69 (50) 90 (46) 125 (42) 184 (37) 
GUNA18 (51)33 (51)45 (51)56 (50)72 (46)101 (42) 150 (37) 
CONU20 (53) 35 (52)50 (52)63 (51)85 (47) 120 (43) 172 (39) 
FSSE*17 (49)30 (49)40 (49)53 (49)64 (45)75 (38)127 (35)
OFCI22 (53) 40 (53) 53 (53) 64 (52)80 (48) 103 (44) 144 (40) 
OFCL20 (53) 36 (53) 52 (53) 66 (52) 80 (48) 100 (44) 128 (40) 
NHC Official (1994-2003 mean)44 (3172) 78 (2894) 112 (2636) 146 (2368) 217 (1929) 248 (421) 319 (341) 

* Output from these models was unavailable at forecast time.


Table 6: Watch and warning summary for Hurricane Frances, 25 August - 8 September 2004.
Date/TimeActionLocation
29 / 2100Tropical Storm Watch issuedAnguilla, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Maarten 
30 / 0300Tropical Storm Warning issuedAnguilla, Antigua, Barbuda, Nevis, Saba, St. Kitts, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten 
30 / 0300Hurricane Watch issuedBritish Virgin Islands, northern U. S. Virgin Islands, Culebra, Vieques 
30 / 1500Tropical Storm Watch issuedPuerto Rico, St. Barthelemy, St. Martin 
30 / 1500Hurricane Watch changed to Tropical Storm WatchVieques 
30 / 2100Tropical Storm Warning issuedPuerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, British Virgin Islands, northern U. S. Virgin Islands 
30 / 2100Tropical Storm Watch issuedSt Croix 
30 / 2100Hurricane Watch discontinuedAll 
31 / 0300Tropical Storm Watch issuedNorthern coast of the Dominican Republic from Manzanillo Bayto Cabo Engano 
31 / 0300Tropical Storm Warning issuedGuadeloupe 
31 / 0900Tropical Storm Warning discontinuedAntigua, Barbuda, Nevis, St. Kitts 
31 / 0900Hurricane Watch issuedSoutheastern Bahamas,Turks and Caicos Islands 
31 / 1500Hurricane Warning issuedSoutheastern Bahamas, Turks and Caicos Islands 
31 / 1500Tropical Storm Warning issuedNorthern coast of the Dominican Republic Punta Gorda to Manzanillo Bay 
31 / 1500Hurricane Watch issuedCentral Bahamas 
31 / 1500Tropical Storm Warning discontinuedAnguilla, Antigua, Barbuda, Guadeloupe, Nevis, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten 
31 / 1500Tropical Storm Watch discontinuedSt. Barthelemy, St. Croix, St. Martin, and Dominican Republic coast south of Punta Gorda 
31 / 2100Tropical Storm Warning discontinuedPuerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, U. S. and British Virgin islands 
1 / 1500Hurricane Warning issuedCentral Bahamas 
1 / 1500Hurricane Watch issuedNorthwestern Bahamas 
1 / 2100Tropical Storm Warning discontinuedDominican Republic 
2 / 0000Hurricane Warning issuedNorthwestern Bahamas 
2 / 0300Hurricane Watch issuedFlorida east coast from Florida City to Flagler Beach including Lake Okeechobee 
2 / 0300Tropical Storm Watch issuedFlorida Keys from Florida City to Seven Mile Bridge including Florida Bay 
2 / 0900Hurricane Watch extended southwardFlorida Keys from Florida City to Craig Key 
2 / 1500Hurricane Warning issuedFlorida east coast from Florida City to Flagler Beach including Lake Okeechobee 
2 / 1500Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning issuedFlorida Keys from Florida City to Seven Mile Bridge including Florida Bay 
2 / 1500Hurricane Warning discontinuedTurks and Caicos Islands 
3 / 0300Hurricane Warning discontinuedSoutheastern Bahamas 
3 / 1500Hurricane Watch extended northwardFloridacoast from Flagler Beach to Fernandina Beach 
3 / 2100Tropical Storm Warning issuedFloridacoast from Flagler Beach to Fernandina Beach 
3 / 2100Hurricane Warning discontinuedCentral Bahamas 
4 / 0300Tropical Storm Warning issuedFlorida southwest coast from Bonita Beach to Florida City 
4 / 0300Tropical Storm Watch issuedFlorida west coast from Bonita Beach to Suwannee River 
4 / 0900Tropical Storm Warning extended northwardFlorida west coast from Bonita Beach to Englewood 
4 / 1500Tropical Storm Warning extended northwardFlorida and Georgia coasts from Fernandina Beach to Altamaha Sound 
4 / 1500Tropical Storm Warning extended northwardFlorida west coast from Englewood to Anna Maria Island 
4 / 1500Tropical Storm Watch extended northwardFlorida west coast from Suwannee River to St Marks 
4 / 2100Tropical Storm Warning extended northwardFlorida west coast from Anna Maria Island to St. Marks 
4 / 2100Tropical Storm Watch extended westwardFlorida Gulf coast from St. Marks to Panama City 
4 / 2100Hurricane Warning discontinuedNorthwestern Bahamas except Grand Bahama, Abaco, Bimini, and the Berry Islands 
5 / 0900Hurricane Warning changed to Tropical Storm WarningFlorida southeast coast from Deerfield Beach to Florida City 
5 / 0900Tropical Storm Warning issuedFlorida Keys south of Seven Mile Bridge including the Dry Tortugas 
5 / 1500Hurricane Warning issuedFlorida Gulf coast from Suwannee River to Destin 
5 / 1500Hurricane Watch discontinuedFlorida east coast from Flagler Beach to Fernandina Beach 
5 / 1500All warnings discontinuedNorthwestern Bahamas 
5 / 2100Hurricane Warning extended southwardFlorida west coast from Suwannee River to Anna Maria Island 
5 / 2100Hurricane warning changed to tropical storm warningFlorida east coast from Jupiter Inlet to Flagler Beach including Lake Okeechobee 
5 / 2100All warnings discontinuedFlorida east coast from Florida City to Jupiter Inlet 
6 / 0600Tropical Storm Warning discontinuedFlorida west coast from Bonita Beach to Florida City including the Florida Keys, the Dry Tortugas, and Lake Okeechobee 
6 / 0900All warnings discontinuedFlorida west coast south of Englewood and Florida east coast south of CocoaBeach 
6 / 1500Hurricane Warning changed to Tropical Storm WarningFlorida Gulf coast from Indian Pass to Destin and Florida west coast from Anna Maria Island to SuwanneeRiver 
6 / 1500All warnings discontinuedGeorgia coast, Florida east coast, and Florida west coast south of Anna Maria Island 
6 / 2100Hurricane Warning changed to Tropical Storm WarningFlorida Gulf coast from Suwannee River to St Marks 
6 / 2100All warnings discontinuedFlorida coast west of St. Marks and south of Suwannee River 
7 / 0300All warnings discontinuedFlorida coast 

Best track positions for Hurricane Frances

Figure 1: Best track positions for Hurricane Frances, 25 August - 8 September 2004.

Selected wind observations and best track maximum sustained surface wind speed curve for Hurricane Frances

Figure 2: Selected wind observations and best track maximum sustained surface wind speed curve for Hurricane Frances, 25 August - 8 September 2004. Aircraft observations have been adjusted for elevation using 90% and 80% reduction factors for observations from 700 mb and 850 mb respectively. Dropwindsonde observations include actual 10 m winds (sfc), as well as surface estimates derived from the mean wind over the lowest 150 m of the wind sounding (LLM), and from the sounding boundary layer mean (MBL). Objective Dvorak estimates represent linear averages over a three-hour period centered on the nominal observation time. Vertical black lines indicate times of landfalls.

Selected pressure observations and best track minimum central pressure curve for Hurricane Frances

Figure 3: Selected pressure observations and best track minimum central pressure curve for Hurricane Frances, 25 August - 8 September 2004. Objective Dvorak estimates represent linear averages over a three-hour period centered on the nominal observation time. Vertical black lines indicate times of landfalls.

Storm-total rainfalls for Hurricane Frances

Figure 4: Storm-total rainfalls for Hurricane Frances, 25 August - 8 September 2004. Figure courtesy of David Roth of the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.



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Page last modified: Saturday, 11-Jun-2005 18:18:24 UTC