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Tropical Cyclone Report

Tropical Storm Enrique

10 - 13 July 2003

Stacy R. Stewart
National Hurricane Center
29 October 2003

Tropical Storm Enrique was a short-lived, west-northwestward-moving tropical cyclone that remained over the open northeast Pacific Ocean.

a. Synoptic History

Enrique formed from a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on 25 June. The wave moved quickly westward across the tropical Atlantic and remained devoid of any significant shower activity until it reached northern South America on 4 July. The wave continued moving westward and emerged over the northeastern Pacific Ocean on 6 July. By that time, the disturbance was accompanied by a surface low pressure system. Thunderstorm activity became organized enough for satellite classifications to be initiated on 9 July. The disturbance continued to develop and satellite intensity estimates indicated that Tropical Depression Five-E had formed at 1200 UTC 10 July about 565 n mi south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California. The depression gradually became better organized and it is estimated that it became Tropical Storm Enrique at 1200 UTC 11 July. Enrique moved west-northwestward for the next 2 days and it is estimated that it reached its peak intensity of 55 kt early on 12 July about 470 n mi south-southwest of Baja California.

Since Enrique had developed at an unusually high latitude, the cyclone was close to the cooler sea-surface temperatures that typically lie just offshore the west coast of the Baja Peninsula. Late on 12 July, Enrique encountered those cooler waters and began to weaken despite the otherwise favorable low vertical wind shear that existed across the tropical storm. Rapid weakening began early on 13 July and Enrique became a tropical depression again at 1200 UTC. The cyclone then turned westward and quickly degenerated into a non-convective low pressure system by 0000 UTC 14 July. The low pressure system remained devoid of any thunderstorms and continued moving westward over colder water until it dissipated early on 16 July about 1200 miles west-southwest of Baja California.

The "best track" chart of the tropical cyclone's path is given in Figure 1, with the wind and pressure histories shown in Figure 2 and Figure 3, respectively. The best track positions and intensities are listed in Table 1.

b. Meteorological Statistics

Observations in Enrique (Figure 2 and Figure 3) include satellite-based Dvorak technique intensity estimates from the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB), the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) and the U. S. Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA).

There were two ship reports of winds of tropical storm force associated with Enrique. Ship 9VIG reported 37-kt winds are 1800 UTC 10 July and 0000 UTC 11 July 2003. However, quality control analyses performed by the Ocean Prediction Center, Washington, D.C. indicated that these winds speeds were probably at least 7 kt too high.

c. Casualty and Damage Statistics

There were no reports of damages or casualties associated with Enrique.

d. Forecast and Warning Critique

Enrique was a tropical cyclone for only 78 h, resulting in a relatively small number of forecasts to verify. Average official track errors (with the number of cases in parentheses) for Enrique were 47 (12), 88 (10), 114 (8),120 (6), 144 (2) n mi for the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72 h forecasts, respectively1. These errors are comparable to the average official track errors for the 10-yr period 1993-2002 [39, 72, 103, 131, 186, n mi, respectively, (Table 2)].

Average official intensity errors were 1, 4, 7, 10, and 10 kt for the 12, 24, 36, 48, and 72 h forecasts, respectively. For comparison, the average official intensity errors over the 10-yr period 1993-2002 are 6, 11, 15, 17, and 20 kt, respectively.

No watches or warnings were associated with Enrique.

1 All forecast verifications in this report include the depression stage of the cyclone. National Hurricane Center verifications presented in these reports prior to 2003 did not include the depression stage.



Table 1: Best track data for Tropical Storm Enrique, 10-13 July 2003.
Date/Time
(UTC)
PositionPressure
(mb)
Wind Speed
(kt)
Stage
Lat.
(°N)
Lon.
(°W)
 10 / 1200 14.1 106.3 1005 25 tropical depression
 10 / 1800 14.6 107.5 1005 30 "
 11 / 0000 14.6 108.7 1005 30 "
 11 / 0600 14.6 109.5 1005 30 "
 11 / 1200 14.7 110.4 1000 40 tropical storm
 11 / 1800 14.9 111.2 999 45 "
 12 / 0000 15.3 112.1 994 55 "
 12 / 0600 16.2 113.3 993 55 "
 12 / 1200 17.2 114.3 994 55 "
 12 / 1800 18.0 115.6 994 55 "
 13 / 0000 18.9 117.1 997 50 "
 13 / 0600 19.3 118.7 999 45 "
 13 / 1200 19.7 119.7 1002 35 "
 13 / 1800 20.0 121.2 1005 30 tropical depression
 14 / 0000 20.0 122.5 1006 25 remnant low
 14 / 0600 19.9 123.9 1006 25 "
 14 / 1200 19.7 125.1 1007 25 "
 14 / 1800 19.2 126.2 1008 20 "
 15 / 0000 18.9 126.9 1008 20 "
 15 / 0600 18.7 127.8 1009 20 "
 15 / 1200 18.6 128.8 1009 20 "
 15 / 1800 18.6 129.8 1009 20 "
 16 / 0000 18.6 130.6 1009 20 "
 16 / 0600     dissipated
 12 / 0600 16.2 113.3 993 55 minimum pressure


Table 2: Preliminary forecast evaluation (heterogeneous sample) for Tropical Storm Enrique, 10-13 July 2003. Forecast errors (n mi) are followed by the number of forecasts in parentheses. Errors smaller than the NHC official forecast are shown in bold-face type. Verification includes the depression stage, but does not include the extratropical stage, if any.
Forecast TechniquePeriod (hours)
122436487296120
CLP549 (11) 105 ( 9) 138 ( 8) 126 ( 6) 105 ( 2)   
GFNI50 ( 7) 90 ( 5) 106 ( 3) 32 ( 1)    
GFDI33 (10) 68 ( 8) 88 ( 8) 115 ( 6)    
GFDL34 ( 9) 70 ( 7) 104 ( 6) 105 ( 5) 101 ( 1)   
LBAR44 ( 9) 96 ( 7) 134 ( 7) 169 ( 6) 274 ( 2)   
AVNI50 ( 8) 108 ( 6) 128 ( 6) 163 ( 4)    
AVNO49 (10) 88 ( 8) 142 ( 6) 165 ( 5) 284 ( 1)   
AEMI46 ( 4) 101 ( 3) 98 ( 3) 99 ( 2)    
BAMD46 ( 9) 77 ( 7) 88 ( 7) 69 ( 6) 86 ( 2)   
BAMM50 ( 9) 97 ( 7) 121 ( 7) 138 ( 6) 140 ( 2)   
BAMS54 ( 9) 115 ( 7) 151 ( 7) 202 ( 6) 249 ( 2)   
NGPI52 (11) 98 ( 9) 148 ( 7) 157 ( 5) 270 ( 2)   
NGPS44 (10) 72 ( 8) 88 ( 6) 111 ( 4)    
UKMI58 ( 9) 93 ( 7) 98 ( 5) 94 ( 3)    
UKM72 (6) 125 (4) 135 (3) 97 (2)    
GUNS33 (7) 72 (5) 89 (5) 68 (3)    
GUNA34 (7) 75 (5) 91 (5) 84 (3)    
OFCL47(12) 88 (10) 114 ( 8) 120 ( 6) 144 ( 2)   
NHC Official (1993-2002 mean)39(2864) 72(2595) 103 (2314) 131 (2050) 186 (1603) 197(210) 223(143) 

Figure 1: Best track positions for Tropical Storm Enrique, 10-13 July 2003. Track positions during the remnant low stage are based on analyses from the Tropical Prediction Center's Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch.

Figure 2: Selected wind observations and best track maximum sustained surface wind speed curve for Tropical Storm Enrique, 10-13 July 2003.Estimates during the remnant low stage are based on analyses from the Tropical Prediction Center's Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch.The "X" after 0000 UTC 13 July 2003 represents uncontaminated QuikSCAT scatterometer wind data.

Figure 3: Selected pressure observations and best track minimum central pressure curve for Tropical Storm Enrique, 10-13 July 2003.Estimates during the remnant low stage are based on analyses from the Tropical Prediction Center's Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch.


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