Tropical Cyclone Report
Tropical Storm Julio
25 - 26 September 2002
National Hurricane Center
11 December 20002
Tropical Storm Julio made landfall on the Pacific coast of
Mexico just west-northwest of Lazaro Cardenas.
a. Synoptic History
Julio formed from a persistent area of monsoon-like disturbed
weather near the west coast of Mexico. An area of convection and
westerly surface winds first developed on 21 September from
10°N-17°N between 90°W-107°W, possibly in
response to Atlantic Hurricane Isidore approaching the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico. Convective activity generally increased over
the next two days, and a poorly-defined low-level circulation
developed late on 23 September. The system gradually became better
organized, and it is estimated that it became a tropical depression
by 0000 UTC 25 September about 175 n mi southwest of Acapulco,
Mexico. The "best track" chart of the tropical cyclone's path is
given in Figure 1, with the wind and pressure histories shown in
Figure 2 and Figure 3,
respectively. The best track positions and
intensities are listed in Table 1.
The depression moved northward and strengthened. It
became Tropical Storm Julio near 1200 UTC that day, then reached a
maximum intensity of 40 kt prior to landfall on the coast of Mexico
just west-northwest of Lazaro Cardenas around 0000 UTC 26
September. A subsequent northwestward motion took the center over
the mountains of southwestern Mexico, where the system dissipated
north of Manzanillo later that day.
b. Meteorological Statistics
Observations in Julio (Figure 2 and Figure 3)
include satellite-based Dvorak technique intensity estimates from the
Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB), the Satellite
Analysis Branch (SAB) and the U. S. Air Force Weather Agency
(AFWA), and reports from one surface station. Zihuatanejo, Mexico
reported 35 kt sustained winds with a gust to 45 kt at 2042 UTC 25
September, along with a minimum pressure of 1002.3 mb from
c. Casualty and Damage Statistics
There were no reports of casualties from Julio. Press
reports indicate that 100 homes in Acapulco and Zihuatanejo were
either damaged or destroyed by flash flooding.
d. Forecast and Warning Critique
Julio was a tropical storm for only 18 h, so no
significant forecast error verification is possible.
A tropical storm warning was issued for the coast of
Mexico from Zihuatanejo to Punta San Telmo at 1500 UTC 25
September, while a tropical storm watch was issued west of Punta
San Telmo to Manzanillo. These warnings and watches were
discontinued at 0900 UTC 26 September when Julio weakened over
Table 1: Best track for Tropical Storm Julio, 25-26
|25 / 0000||14.6||101.8||1005||25||tropical depression
|25 / 0600||15.4||101.6||1005||30||"
|25 / 1200||16.1||101.6||1003||35||tropical storm
|25 / 1800||17.0||101.9||1001||40||"
|26 / 0000||18.0||102.4||1000||40||"
|26 / 0600||18.7||103.3||1003||35||"
|26 / 1200||19.4||104.3||1005||25||tropical depression
|26 / 1800||dissipated
|26 / 0000||18.0||102.4||1000||40||minimum pressure and landfall just
west-northwest of Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico
Best track positions for Tropical Storm Julio, 25 - 26 September
Selected wind observations and best track
maximum sustained surface wind speed curve for Tropical Storm
Julio, 25 - 26 September 2002.
Selected pressure observations and best
track minimum central pressure curve for Tropical Storm Julio, 25 -
26 September 2002.