Tropical Cyclone Report
Tropical Storm Josephine
17 - 19 September 2002
Richard J. Pasch
National Hurricane Center
14 January 2003
Josephine was a short-lived, high latitude tropical storm well
out at sea.
a. Synoptic History
Josephine was of non-tropical origin. Surface data indicated
that a weak low pressure system formed along a dissipating, nearly
stationary frontal zone about 750 n mi east of Bermuda on 16
September. Over the next day, as the low moved slowly westward, a
small area of deep convection formed near the low-level circulation
center and the system's cloud pattern changed from one that
resembled a non-tropical cyclone to that of a tropical cyclone. It
is estimated that the system became a tropical depression around
1200 UTC 17 September, while centered about 620 n mi east of
Bermuda. The tropical cyclone moved slowly north-northwestward to
northward for about a day. Deep convection associated with the
system was intermittent and at times the low-level center became
exposed. However, the cyclone strengthened slightly and is
estimated to have become a tropical storm by 0600 UTC 18 September.
Soon thereafter, Josephine accelerated northeastward in the flow
ahead of a deep-layer mid-latitude trough. The system lost its
tropical characteristics around 1200 UTC 19 September, at which
time a ship report indicated that the cyclone had strengthened into
an storm with winds near 50 kt well removed from the center. Soon
thereafter, the storm merged with a larger extratropical low and
frontal system. The "best track" chart of Josephine's path is
displayed in Figure 1, with the wind and pressure histories shown in
Figure 2 and Figure 3,
respectively. The best track positions and
intensities are listed in Table 1.
b. Meteorological Statistics
Observations in Josephine (Figure 2 and Figure 3)
include satellite-based Dvorak technique intensity estimates from the
Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB), the Satellite
Analysis Branch (SAB) and the U. S. Air Force Weather Agency
(AFWA). Additionally, there was a report of 37 kt winds from a ship
(see Table 2) as well as QuikSCAT and SSM/I winds near 35 kt around
0600 UTC 18 September. When Josephine became extratropical at 1200
UTC 19 September, a ship with call sign C6LV3 reported 50 kt winds
about 76 n mi southeast of the center.
c. Casualty and Damage Statistics
There were no reports of damages or casualties associated with
d. Forecast and Warning Critique
Josephine was a tropical storm for only about a day, so there
are no meaningful forecast statistics. In general, the official
forecasts correctly anticipated that the cyclone would accelerate
northeastward, and that it would not strengthen significantly as a
tropical cyclone. Watches or warnings were not required for
Table 1: Best track for Tropical Storm Josephine, 17-19
|17 / 1200||32.7||52.4||1016||30||tropical depression
|17 / 1800||33.2||52.7||1015||30||"
|18 / 0000||33.7||52.7||1014||30||"
|18 / 0600||34.7||52.7||1009||35||tropical storm
|18 / 1200||35.5||52.0||1009||35||"
|18 / 1800||36.6||50.5||1009||35||"
|19 / 0000||38.0||48.8||1009||35||"
|19 / 0600||39.5||46.7||1009||35||"
|19 / 1200||41.5||43.3||1004||50||extratropical
|19 / 1800||merged with larger extratropical cyclone
|19 / 0600||39.5||46.7||1009||35||minimum pressure
Table 2: Selected ship reports with winds of at least 34 kt for
Tropical Storm Josephine, September 2002.
|Ship Name or Call Sign||Date/Time (UTC)||Lat.|
|Wind dir/speed (deg/kt)||Pressure (mb)
|PDKK||18 / 0300||34.1||52.0||190 / 37 ||1010.8
Best track positions for Tropical Storm Josephine, 17-19
September 2002. Minimum pressure (mb) at arrowhead.
Best track maximum sustained surface wind speed curve and
satellite-derived intensity estimates for Tropical Storm Josephine, 17-19
Best track minimum central pressure curve and
satellite-derived pressure estimates for Tropical Storm Josephine, 17-19