TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS
Tropical Storm Barbara
Tropical Storm Cosme
Tropical Storm Erick
Tropical Depression Six-E
Tropical Storm Henriette
Tropical Storm Ivo
Tropical Storm Lorena
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E
Tropical Storm Manuel
Tropical Cyclone Report
20 - 25 October 2001
National Hurricane Center
13 November 2001
a. Synoptic History
Narda developed from a westward moving tropical wave that
crossed Dakar, Senegal around the 3rd of October. The
wave became convectively active after it crossed Central America
when it produced a large burst of convection in the Bay of Campeche
on the 15th. The southern portion of the wave continued
westward over the Pacific waters south of Mexico and under
favorable upper-level winds, it began to acquire banding features
and but with several centers of circulation. The system finally
consolidated and developed one center at 1200 UTC 20 October. It
became a tropical depression about 1150 n mi southwest of Cabo San
Lucas, Mexico. Moving on a west-northwest track, it intensified and
reached tropical storm status later that day. The cloud pattern
continued to become better organized and visible satellite imagery
showed an intermittent eye feature, and it is estimated that Narda
became a hurricane at 1800 UTC 21 October. Narda peak's intensity
of 75 knots occurred at 0000 UTC 22 October. Thereafter, a gradual
weakening began and strong shear took a toll on Narda. The tropical
cyclone became a tight swirl of low clouds with intermittent
convection on the 24th, as it moved westward steered by
the low-level flow and crossing 140 W over the Central Pacific area
of responsibility. It then continued westward as a tropical
depression until dissipation. The "best track" chart of the
tropical cyclone's path is given in Figure 1, with the wind and
pressure histories shown in Figure 2 and Figure 3,
respectively. The best
track positions and intensities are listed in Table 1. The best
track west of 140 W was provided by the Central Pacific Hurricane
b. Meteorological Statistics
Observations in Narda (Figure 2 and Figure 3)
Dvorak technique intensity estimates from the Tropical Analysis and
Forecast Branch (TAFB), the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) and the
U.S. Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA). Narda was upgraded to
hurricane status based on 4.0 Dvorak T-numbers and the formation of
a ragged eye. Its peak intensity of 75 knots was based on a 3-hour
average objective T-numbers.
c. Casualty and Damage Statistics
There were no reports of damage or casualties associated with
d. Forecast and Warning Critique
Average official track errors for Narda were 30 (11), 54(9), 86(
7), 86 (5), and 76(1) n mi for the 12, 24, 36, 48, and 72 h
forecasts, respectively. The number in parenthesis corresponds to
the number of forecasts. These errors are lower than the average
official track errors for the 10-yr period 1991-2000 of 37, 68, 99,
128, and 185 n mi, respectively.
Average official intensity errors were 7, 13, 13, 11, and 10 kt
for the 12, 24, 36, 48, and 72 h forecasts, respectively. For
comparison, the average official intensity errors over the 10-yr
period 1991-2000 are: 7, 12, 16, 19, and 21 kt, respectively.
Watches and warnings for Narda were not required.
Table 1: Best track for Hurricane Narda, 20 - 25 October 2001.
|Lat. (°N)||Lon. (°W)
|20 / 1200||11.0||125.0||1006||30||tropical depression
|20 / 1800||11.6||126.4||1004||35||tropical storm
|21 / 0000||12.1||127.5||1002||40||"
|21 / 0600||12.6||128.5||1000||45||"
|21 / 1200||13.3||129.6||994||55||"
|21 / 1800||13.9||130.6||987||65||hurricane
|22 / 0000||14.5||131.4||980||75||"
|22 / 0600||15.1||132.2||983||70||"
|22 / 1200||15.5||133.3||983||70||"
|22 / 1800||15.9||134.2||987||65||"
|23 / 0000||16.1||135.2||990||60||tropical storm
|23 / 0600||16.2||136.4||994||55||"
|23 / 1200||16.3||138.1||1002||40||"
|23 / 1800||16.3||139.6||1002||35||"
|24 / 0000||16.4||141.2||1004||30||tropical depression
|24 / 0600||16.5||142.4||1004||30||"
|24 / 1200||16.7||143.5||1004||30||"
|24 / 1800||16.9||144.4||1004||30||"
|25 / 0000||16.9||145.5||1004||30||"
|25 / 0600||16.9||146.5||1005||25||"
|25 / 1200||dissipated
|22 / 0000||14.5||131.4||980||75||minimum pressure
Best track positions for Hurricane Narda. 20-25 October 2001.
Best track maximum sustained surface wind speed curve for
Hurricane Narda 20-25 October 2001.
Best track minimum central pressure curve
for Hurricane Narda . 20 -25 October 2001.