Lane was a large hurricane whose track included a loop, which is quite rare in the eastern Pacific. It passed directly over Socorro Island and dissipated unusually far to the north at 32°N.
a. Synoptic history
A tropical wave moved westward off the African coast on 20 August. This system caused little in the way of significant weather while crossing the Atlantic and Caribbean, finally moving across Central America and into the Pacific on 29 August. The first signs of an organized circulation appeared south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec on 1 September when the initial Dvorak satellite intensity estimate was made. Further increases in organization were slow, with steady development beginning on 4 September. The system became a tropical depression about 140 n mi south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico near 0000 UTC 5 September (Figure 1 and Table 1). The depression moved westward and became Tropical Storm Lane later that day.
Up to this time, Lane had evolved as an average-sized tropical cyclone. However, over the next three days Lane either evolved into a much large cyclone (as indicated in the best track) or merged with a developing monsoon-type circulation. There were three notable results in either case: 1) The cyclonic envelope became quite large; 2) The center made a loop that lasted from 6-8 September; and 3) After reaching a 50 kt intensity on the 6th, the storm temporarily weakened. Once the loop was finished, Lane strengthened to a hurricane and moved generally northwestward, passing over Socorro Island on the 9th. A 50-60 n mi wide eye was seen and a peak intensity of 85 kt was estimated on the 10th. This coincided with a turn to the west-northwest, with that motion continuing into the 11th. This took the cyclone over cooler water, and Lane weakened to a tropical storm late on the 11th.
A large deep layer trough located off the U. S. west coast allowed the storm to turn northwestward on 12 September and northward the next day. Lane moved over 20°C water on the 13th, which caused it to weaken to a depression. The cyclone dissipated about 250 n mi west of San Diego, California on the 14th.
b. Meteorological statistics
Table 1 shows the best track positions and intensities for Lane, with the track plotted in Figure 1. Figure 2 and Figure 3 depict the curves of minimum central sea-level pressure and maximum sustained one-minute average "surface" (10 m above ground level) winds, respectively, as a function of time. These figures also contain the data on which the curves are based: satellite-based Dvorak technique intensity estimates from the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB), the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) of the National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service (NESDIS), and the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA), and surface observations from Socorro Island.
The eye of Lane passed directly over Socorro Island. While the maximum observed winds are not available, the island reported a minimum pressure of 973.7 mb at 1500 UTC 9 September. Although Lane otherwise remained well offshore, rainbands and gusty winds affected portions of the Mexican mainland and Baja California. San Jose del Cabo, Mexico, reported sustained winds of 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt at 1850 UTC 9 September, and Manzanillo reported 28 kt sustained winds at 2145 UTC 8 September.
Several ships encountered the northeastern semicircle of Lane. Table 2 shows selected ship reports of tropical storm-force winds.
c. Damage and casualty statistics
Although Lane's large circulation affected the Mexican mainland and Baja California, no reports of damage or casualties have been received at the National Hurricane Center.
d. Forecast and warning critique
Table 3 shows the average track forecast errors during Lane, including the official forecast error, the 10-year average forecast error, and the track guidance errors. The official forecast errors were significantly worse than the 10-year average at all times, but were better than the Climatology-Persistence (CLIPER) forecasts and, thus, had skill. Several of the numerical forecast models outperformed the official forecasts, with the best forecasts coming from the global AVN and UKMET models, and the GFDL model. All three of these had average 72 h forecast errors of less than 150 n mi. The largest errors, with four consecutive forecast errors of 400 n mi or more, occurred on the first four forecasts where the loop was not anticipated. The AVN, UKM, and GFDL all showed either a loop or an erratic motion that was more accurate than the officially-forecast westward track. It is notable that later official forecasts were better, with two 72-h forecasts having errors as low as 18 and 24 n mi.
The average official intensity forecast errors were 6, 11, 14, 14, and 14 kt at 12, 24, 36, 48 and 72 h respectively. These errors are below the 10-year averages of 7, 12, 16, 19, and 21 kt. These errors are also mostly below that of the SHIPS model, which had errors of 7.9, 11.7, 15.0, 15.4, and 12.0 kt at 12, 24, 36, 48, and 72 h respectively. Some early official forecast intensities were too high, as Lane weakened during its loop instead of a forecast strengthening. Some later forecasts underestimated the amount of intensification as Lane became a hurricane.
Watches and warnings were not issued for Lane.
Table 1. Best track, Hurricane Lane, 5-14 September 2000. Date/Time
(UTC)Position Pressure
(mb)Wind Speed
(kt)Stage Lat. (°N) Lon. (°W) 05/ 0000 15.4 102.2 1007 25 tropical depression 05 / 0600 15.7 103.6 1007 30 " 05 / 1200 15.9 105.1 1004 35 tropical storm 05 / 1800 16.0 106.3 1002 40 " 06 / 0000 15.8 107.1 1000 45 " 06 / 0600 15.4 107.9 1000 45 " 06 / 1200 14.8 108.3 997 50 " 06 / 1800 14.3 108.5 998 50 " 07 / 0000 13.8 108.3 1000 45 " 07 / 0600 13.5 108.0 1000 40 " 07 / 1200 13.9 107.8 1000 40 " 07 / 1800 14.5 107.7 999 45 " 08 / 0000 15.1 108.0 998 45 " 08 / 0600 15.5 108.3 994 50 " 08 / 1200 15.9 108.6 991 55 " 08 / 1800 16.4 108.9 987 60 " 09 / 0000 17.1 109.4 983 65 hurricane 09 / 0600 17.9 110.0 978 70 " 09 / 1200 18.6 110.6 974 75 " 09 / 1800 19.5 111.4 970 80 " 10 / 0000 20.2 112.5 968 85 " 10 / 0600 20.5 113.5 967 85 " 10 / 1200 20.9 114.4 968 85 " 10 / 1800 21.3 115.1 969 85 " 11 / 0000 21.7 115.8 971 80 " 11 / 0600 22.2 116.9 975 75 " 11 / 1200 22.6 117.9 983 65 " 11 / 1800 23.0 119.0 987 60 tropical storm 12 / 0000 23.5 120.0 991 55 " 12 / 0600 24.2 120.9 994 50 " 12 / 1200 25.0 121.7 996 45 " 12 / 1800 25.8 122.4 998 45 " 13 / 0000 26.7 123.0 1000 40 " 13 / 0600 27.8 123.1 1002 35 " 13 / 1200 29.1 122.9 1004 30 tropical depression 13 / 1800 30.7 122.8 1005 25 " 14 / 0000 32.2 122.2 1006 25 " 14 / 0600 dissipated 10 / 0600 20.5 113.5 967 85 minimum pressure
Table 2. Selected ship observations of tropical storm or greater winds associated with Hurricane Lane, 5-14 September 2000. Ship
(Name or ID)Date/Time
(UTC)Lat. (°N) Lon. (°W) Wind
dir/speed
(deg/kt)Pressure
(mb)ELXZ7 06/1500 13.8 109.4 310/34 1005.5 1st Lt Baldomero Lopez 08/1800 20.1 107.1 130/38 1006.0 St. Lucia 09/0600 20.0 107.2 130/42 1006.0 Sealand Voyager 09/1500 21.0 108.1 130/38 1003.9 Choyang Zenith 09/1500 22.6 110.5 080/43 1005.5 Ursula Rickmers 10/0900 23.2 112.0 100/37 1003.5
Table 3. Table 3. Preliminary track forecast evaluation for Hurricane Lane - heterogeneous sample. Errors in nautical miles for tropical storm and hurricane stages with number of forecasts in parentheses. Numbers in bold represent forecast which were better than the official forecast. Forecast Technique Period (hours) 12 24 36 48 72 CLIP 44 (30) 101 (28) 159 (26) 211 (24) 307 (20) GFDI 43 (30) 74 (28) 99 (26) 117 (24) 160 (20) GFDL* 48 (30) 73 (28) 89 (26) 104 (24) 145 (30) AVNI 29 (27) 45 (25) 67 (23) 94 (21) 145 (17) AVNO* 49 (28) 46 (26) 61 (24) 84 (22) 140 (18) BAMD 44 (30) 93 (28) 142 (26) 188 (24) 287 (20) BAMM 43 (30) 80 (28) 120 (26) 160 (24) 234 (20) BAMS 46 (30) 89 (28) 134 (26) 176 (24) 255 (20) UKMI 40 (25) 74 (23) 104 (21) 130 (19) 150 (15) UKM* 38 (13) 64 (12) 96 (11) 120 (10) 133 (8) P91E 42 (30) 88 (28) 137 (26) 183 (24) 305 (20) P9UK 42 (14) 96 (13) 144 (12) 187 (11) 294 (9) LBAR 40 (30) 92 (28) 149 (26) 204 (24) 303 (20) NHC Official 42 (30) 84 (28) 128 (26) 177 (24) 277 (20) NHC Official 10-Year Average (1990-1999) 37 (2494) 69 (2245) 101 (1993) 132 (1760) 189 (1353) * Output from these models was unavailable at time of forecast issuance.
Figure 1. Best track of Hurricane Lane, 5-14 September 2000.
Figure 2. Best track minimum central pressure curve for Hurricane Lane, 5-14 September 2000.
Figure 3. Best track maximum sustained 1-min. wind speed curve for Hurricane Lane, 5-14 September 2000.
