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Tropical Cyclone Report
Hurricane Lane
5 - 14 September 2000

Jack Beven
National Hurricane Center
24 November 2000

Lane was a large hurricane whose track included a loop, which is quite rare in the eastern Pacific. It passed directly over Socorro Island and dissipated unusually far to the north at 32°N.

a. Synoptic history

A tropical wave moved westward off the African coast on 20 August. This system caused little in the way of significant weather while crossing the Atlantic and Caribbean, finally moving across Central America and into the Pacific on 29 August. The first signs of an organized circulation appeared south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec on 1 September when the initial Dvorak satellite intensity estimate was made. Further increases in organization were slow, with steady development beginning on 4 September. The system became a tropical depression about 140 n mi south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico near 0000 UTC 5 September (Figure 1 and Table 1). The depression moved westward and became Tropical Storm Lane later that day.

Up to this time, Lane had evolved as an average-sized tropical cyclone. However, over the next three days Lane either evolved into a much large cyclone (as indicated in the best track) or merged with a developing monsoon-type circulation. There were three notable results in either case: 1) The cyclonic envelope became quite large; 2) The center made a loop that lasted from 6-8 September; and 3) After reaching a 50 kt intensity on the 6th, the storm temporarily weakened. Once the loop was finished, Lane strengthened to a hurricane and moved generally northwestward, passing over Socorro Island on the 9th. A 50-60 n mi wide eye was seen and a peak intensity of 85 kt was estimated on the 10th. This coincided with a turn to the west-northwest, with that motion continuing into the 11th. This took the cyclone over cooler water, and Lane weakened to a tropical storm late on the 11th.

A large deep layer trough located off the U. S. west coast allowed the storm to turn northwestward on 12 September and northward the next day. Lane moved over 20°C water on the 13th, which caused it to weaken to a depression. The cyclone dissipated about 250 n mi west of San Diego, California on the 14th.

b. Meteorological statistics

Table 1 shows the best track positions and intensities for Lane, with the track plotted in Figure 1. Figure 2 and Figure 3 depict the curves of minimum central sea-level pressure and maximum sustained one-minute average "surface" (10 m above ground level) winds, respectively, as a function of time. These figures also contain the data on which the curves are based: satellite-based Dvorak technique intensity estimates from the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB), the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) of the National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service (NESDIS), and the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA), and surface observations from Socorro Island.

The eye of Lane passed directly over Socorro Island. While the maximum observed winds are not available, the island reported a minimum pressure of 973.7 mb at 1500 UTC 9 September. Although Lane otherwise remained well offshore, rainbands and gusty winds affected portions of the Mexican mainland and Baja California. San Jose del Cabo, Mexico, reported sustained winds of 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt at 1850 UTC 9 September, and Manzanillo reported 28 kt sustained winds at 2145 UTC 8 September.

Several ships encountered the northeastern semicircle of Lane. Table 2 shows selected ship reports of tropical storm-force winds.

c. Damage and casualty statistics

Although Lane's large circulation affected the Mexican mainland and Baja California, no reports of damage or casualties have been received at the National Hurricane Center.

d. Forecast and warning critique

Table 3 shows the average track forecast errors during Lane, including the official forecast error, the 10-year average forecast error, and the track guidance errors. The official forecast errors were significantly worse than the 10-year average at all times, but were better than the Climatology-Persistence (CLIPER) forecasts and, thus, had skill. Several of the numerical forecast models outperformed the official forecasts, with the best forecasts coming from the global AVN and UKMET models, and the GFDL model. All three of these had average 72 h forecast errors of less than 150 n mi. The largest errors, with four consecutive forecast errors of 400 n mi or more, occurred on the first four forecasts where the loop was not anticipated. The AVN, UKM, and GFDL all showed either a loop or an erratic motion that was more accurate than the officially-forecast westward track. It is notable that later official forecasts were better, with two 72-h forecasts having errors as low as 18 and 24 n mi.

The average official intensity forecast errors were 6, 11, 14, 14, and 14 kt at 12, 24, 36, 48 and 72 h respectively. These errors are below the 10-year averages of 7, 12, 16, 19, and 21 kt. These errors are also mostly below that of the SHIPS model, which had errors of 7.9, 11.7, 15.0, 15.4, and 12.0 kt at 12, 24, 36, 48, and 72 h respectively. Some early official forecast intensities were too high, as Lane weakened during its loop instead of a forecast strengthening. Some later forecasts underestimated the amount of intensification as Lane became a hurricane.

Watches and warnings were not issued for Lane.



 
Table 1. Best track, Hurricane Lane, 5-14 September 2000.
Date/Time
(UTC)
Position Pressure
(mb)
Wind Speed
(kt)
Stage
Lat. (°N)Lon. (°W)
05/ 000015.4102.2100725tropical depression
05 / 060015.7103.61007 30"
05 / 120015.9105.11004 35tropical storm
05 / 180016.0106.31002 40"
06 / 000015.8107.11000 45"
06 / 060015.4107.91000 45"
06 / 120014.8108.3 997 50"
06 / 180014.3108.5 998 50"
07 / 000013.8108.31000 45"
07 / 060013.5108.01000 40"
07 / 120013.9107.81000 40"
07 / 180014.5107.7 999 45"
08 / 000015.1108.0 998 45"
08 / 060015.5108.3 994 50"
08 / 120015.9108.6 991 55"
08 / 180016.4108.9 987 60"
09 / 000017.1109.4 983 65hurricane
09 / 060017.9110.0 978 70"
09 / 120018.6110.6 974 75"
09 / 180019.5111.4 970 80"
10 / 000020.2112.5 968 85"
10 / 060020.5113.5 967 85"
10 / 120020.9114.4 968 85"
10 / 180021.3115.1 969 85"
11 / 000021.7115.8 971 80"
11 / 060022.2116.9 975 75"
11 / 120022.6117.9 983 65"
11 / 180023.0119.0 987 60tropical storm
12 / 000023.5120.0 991 55"
12 / 060024.2120.9 994 50"
12 / 120025.0121.7 996 45"
12 / 180025.8122.4 998 45"
13 / 000026.7123.01000 40"
13 / 060027.8123.11002 35"
13 / 120029.1122.91004 30tropical depression
13 / 180030.7122.81005 25"
14 / 000032.2122.21006 25"
14 / 0600dissipated
 
10 / 060020.5113.5 967 85minimum pressure



Table 2. Selected ship observations of tropical storm or greater winds associated with Hurricane Lane, 5-14 September 2000.
Ship
(Name or ID)
Date/Time
(UTC)
Lat. (°N) Lon. (°W) Wind
dir/speed
(deg/kt)
Pressure
(mb)
ELXZ706/150013.8109.4310/341005.5
1st Lt Baldomero Lopez08/180020.1107.1130/381006.0
St. Lucia09/060020.0107.2130/421006.0
Sealand Voyager09/150021.0108.1130/381003.9
Choyang Zenith09/150022.6110.5080/431005.5
Ursula Rickmers10/090023.2112.0100/371003.5



Table 3. Table 3. Preliminary track forecast evaluation for Hurricane Lane - heterogeneous sample. Errors in nautical miles for tropical storm and hurricane stages with number of forecasts in parentheses. Numbers in bold represent forecast which were better than the official forecast.
Forecast Technique Period (hours)
1224364872
CLIP44 (30)101 (28)159 (26)211 (24)307 (20)
GFDI43 (30)74 (28)99 (26)117 (24)160 (20)
GFDL*48 (30)73 (28)89 (26)104 (24)145 (30)
AVNI29 (27)45 (25)67 (23)94 (21)145 (17)
AVNO*49 (28)46 (26)61 (24)84 (22)140 (18)
BAMD44 (30)93 (28)142 (26)188 (24)287 (20)
BAMM43 (30)80 (28)120 (26)160 (24)234 (20)
BAMS46 (30)89 (28)134 (26)176 (24)255 (20)
UKMI40 (25)74 (23)104 (21)130 (19)150 (15)
UKM*38 (13)64 (12)96 (11)120 (10)133 (8)
P91E42 (30)88 (28)137 (26)183 (24)305 (20)
P9UK42 (14)96 (13)144 (12)187 (11)294 (9)
LBAR40 (30)92 (28)149 (26)204 (24)303 (20)
 
NHC Official42 (30)84 (28)128 (26)177 (24)277 (20)
NHC Official 10-Year Average (1990-1999)37 (2494)69 (2245)101 (1993)132 (1760)189 (1353)

* Output from these models was unavailable at time of forecast issuance.

Figure 1. Best track of Hurricane Lane, 5-14 September 2000.

Figure 2. Best track minimum central pressure curve for Hurricane Lane, 5-14 September 2000.

Figure 3. Best track maximum sustained 1-min. wind speed curve for Hurricane Lane, 5-14 September 2000.



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Last updated January 29, 2001