a. Synoptic history
A tropical wave that moved off the west coast of Africa on 18-19 July moved into the Pacific on 26-27 July. Little development occurred in the west-northwestward moving wave until 1 August, when the first signs of a low-level circulation and convective organization were seen to the south of Manzanillo, Mexico. The system continued to become better organized, and a tropical depression formed from it about 540 n mi west-southwest of Manzanillo near 1200 UTC 3 August ( Table 1 and Figure 1).
The depression initially moved west-northwestward about 13 kt. It then slowed and turned westward on 4 August while becoming a tropical storm. Despite the presence of easterly vertical shear, Fabio reached a peak intensity of 45 kt later that day. The storm turned toward the west-southwest while weakening on the 5th, and this motion continued for the rest of the cyclone's life. Fabio weakened to a depression on 6 August and dissipated as a tropical cyclone about 1170 n mi west-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, on 8 August. The remnant swirl of low clouds persisted for several more days, eventually undergoing a Fujiwhara interaction with the remains of Hurricane Gilma.
b. Meteorological statistics
Table 1 shows the best track positions and intensities for Fabio, with the track plotted in Figure 1. Figure 2 and Figure 3 depict the curves of minimum central sea-level pressure and maximum sustained one-minute average "surface" (10 m above ground level) winds, respectively, as a function of time. These figures also contain the data on which the curves are based: satellite-based Dvorak technique intensity estimates from the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB), the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) of the National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service (NESDIS), and the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA).
There were no surface observations of tropical storm-force winds in Fabio. Scatterometers on the ERS-2 and QuikSCAT satellites provided useful information on the center position and tropical storm-force wind radii.
c. Damage and casualty statistics
The National Hurricane Center has received no reports of damage or casualties associated with Fabio.
d. Forecast and warning critique
Fabio was a tropical storm for only 42 hr, so no meaningful evaluation of forecast errors is possible. The 12, 24, and 36 hr official forecast errors were 22, 33, and 58 n mi with 6, 4, and 2 cases respectively. These errors are smaller than the 10-year average errors of 37, 69, and 101 n mi for those times.
The 12, 24, and 36 hr official intensity errors for Fabio were 6, 10, and 15 kt. This is somewhat below the 10-year average of 7, 12 and 16 kt.
Watches and warnings were not issued nor needed for Fabio.
Table 1. Best track, Tropical Storm Fabio, 3 - 8 August 2000. Date/Time
(UTC)Position Pressure
(mb)Wind Speed
(kt)Stage Lat. (°N) Lon. (°W) 03/ 1200 16.4 113.6 1008 30 tropical depression 03 / 1800 16.6 114.9 1006 30 " 04 / 0000 16.7 115.8 1005 35 tropical storm 04 / 0600 16.8 116.6 1004 35 " 04 / 1200 16.8 117.5 1000 45 " 04 / 1800 16.8 118.5 1000 45 " 05 / 0000 16.7 119.5 1000 40 " 05 / 0600 16.7 120.4 1001 40 " 05 / 1200 16.5 121.4 1002 35 " 05 / 1800 16.3 122.4 1004 35 " 06 / 0000 16.2 123.2 1006 30 tropical depression 06 / 0600 15.9 124.0 1007 30 " 06 / 1200 15.5 124.8 1008 30 " 06 / 1800 15.1 125.4 1008 25 " 07 / 0000 14.9 125.9 1009 25 " 07 / 0600 14.7 126.5 1009 25 " 07 / 1200 14.5 127.1 1010 25 " 07 / 1800 14.3 127.7 1010 25 " 08 / 0000 14.2 128.3 1011 25 " 08 / 0600 dissipated 04 / 1200 16.8 117.5 1000 45 minimum pressure 04 / 1800 16.8 118.5 1000 45 " 05 / 0000 16.7 119.5 1000 40 "
Figure 1. Best track positions for Tropical Storm Fabio, 3 - 8 August 2000.
Figure 2. Best track minimum central pressure curve for Tropical Storm Fabio, 3 - 8 August 2000.
Figure 3. Best track maximum sustained 1-minute 10 meter wind speed curve for Tropical Storm Fabio, 3 - 8 August 2000.
