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Tropical Cyclone Report
Hurricane Daniel
23 July - 05 August 2000

Miles B. Lawrence
National Hurricane Center
11 September 2000

Daniel was a 110-knot hurricane in the eastern Pacific Ocean basin and then it threatened Hawaii while weakening. Daniel passed just north of Hawaii and produced rough surf conditions there.

a. Synoptic history

Daniel's origin is associated with a tropical wave that moved from Africa to the Atlantic on 8 July. This wave moved westward across the tropical Atlantic, the Caribbean, and Central America without distinction. It was not until 23 July that the wave's weather became well organized. It is estimated from satellite imagery that a tropical depression formed on the 23rd, south of Mexico. The best track listing of center positions, maximum one-minute wind speeds, and minimum central pressures begins at this time and is given in Table 1. Figure 1 is a plot of the best track. Figure 2 and Figure 3 show plots of best-track wind speed and pressure curves as a function of time, along with the data on which they are based. Best track data west of 140° west longitude in the above table and figures were provided by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center at Honolulu.

The track begins 575 n mi south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico on 23 July and extends west-northwestward across the eastern and central Pacific basins to just north of Hawaii by 1 August. Daniel was a hurricane from the 24th to the 29th and maximum winds reached 110 knots on the 25th and 26th while still in the eastern Pacific basin. Winds fluctuated from 90 knots on the 27th to 105 knots on the 28 and then weakened to tropical storm levels on the 30th. On the 31st, Daniel turned from west-northwest to northwestward and its center passed parallel to and about 120 n mi north of the Hawaiian island chain over the next two days. Its strongest winds did not affect Hawaii. Daniel weakened to a tropical storm on the 30th, to a depression on the 3rd, and finally dissipated on the 5th about 1000 n mi northwest of Hawaii.

A subtropical ridge anchored to the north was Daniel's controlling steering feature until the track gradually turned from west-northwest to northwestward on the 30th and 31st, into a weakness in the ridge near Hawaii. Daniel's forward speed was generally from 15 to 20 knots, except when it slowed to less than 10 knots while making the turn toward the northwest.

b. Meteorological statistics

Center positions are taken from satellite images and intensity estimates are based on the Dvorak satellite method, except for about 60 hours of Air Force reconnaissance data from the 30th to the 1st. The highest flight level wind speed during this period was 86 knots at 850 millibars. This value was an outlier as all other reconnaissance flight level wind speeds were below 60 knots and is not shown in Fig. 2. QuikSCAT and SSM/I microwave satellite wind fields were used during Daniel's formative stage to help determine the existence of, and to locate, the low level circulation center.

c. Casualty and damage statistics

There were no reports of death or damage. There were reports of rough surf conditions on the big island of Hawaii and on Maui's east-facing coast.

d. Forecast and warning critique

The official average track forecast errors for forecasts issued in the eastern Pacific basin ranged from 50 nautical miles at 24 hours to 79 nautical at 48 hours to 190 nautical miles at 72 hours (21 cases). These errors are 30 to 40 percent smaller than the 1990-99 mean official errors. CLIPER errors for Daniel are also considerably smaller than their 1990-99 mean values. These small errors may be related to the small variation of track heading. The track heading varied from only 275 to 295 degrees during the five days of verification. The bias of the official intensity errors was small...+3.6 knots at 72 hours, compared to the ten-year average of -6.2 knots.

Figure 1. Best track positions for Hurricane Daniel, 23 July - 5 August 2000.



 
Table 1. Best track for Hurricane Daniel, 23 July - 05 August, 2000. Data west of 140° west longitude provided by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center at Honolulu.
Date/Time
(UTC)
Position Pressure
(mb)
Wind Speed
(kt)
Stage
Lat. (°N)Lon. (°W)
23/000010.1102.3100925tropical depression
23/060010.3104.1100930"
23/120010.6105.9100730"
23/180010.9107.6100435tropical storm
24/000011.3109.1100145"
24/060011.8110.799755"
24/120012.3112.399165hurricane
24/180012.9114.198075"
25/000013.4116.097095"
25/060013.8117.8964100"
25/120014.0119.4955105"
25/180014.3121.1954110"
26/000014.5122.5954110"
26/060014.9123.9956105"
26/120015.3125.3959105"
26/180015.5127.0961105"
27/000015.6128.5963100"
27/060015.7130.196495"
27/120015.9131.696590"
27/180016.0133.296495"
28/000016.4134.896295"
28/060016.8136.4961105"
28/120017.2138.2963100"
28/180017.5139.696890"
29/000018.0141.398080"
29/060018.4142.999065"
29/120018.7144.699065"
29/180018.9146.399065"
30/000019.3147.799560tropical storm
30/060019.8148.999755"
30/120020.1150.099755"
30/180020.5151.099550"
31/000020.7151.899355"
31/060020.8152.599550"
31/120021.0153.199845"
31/180021.3153.899360"
01/000021.8154.599860"
01/060022.3155.2100150"
01/120022.9156.1100445"
01/180023.6157.2100645"
02/000024.2158.4100840"
02/060025.0159.6100645"
02/120025.8160.9100745"
02/180026.9162.3100845"
03/000027.9163.7101040"
03/060028.8165.2100835"
03/120029.8166.5100930tropical depression
03/180030.5167.6101030"
04/000031.4168.6101230"
04/060032.2169.3101230"
04/120033.0169.9101325"
04/180033.9170.3101525"
05/000035.0170.5101725"
05/060036.1170.7101725"
 
26/000014.5122.4954110minimum pressure

Figure 2. Best track one-min. wind speed curve for Hurricane Daniel, 23 July - 5 August 2000.

Figure 3. Best track minimum central pressure curve for Hurricane Daniel, 23 Jul - 5 August 2000.



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Last updated January 23, 2001