Best track positions for Tropical Storm Chris, 17-19 August 2000.
b. Meteorological statistics
Figure 3 depicts the best track curves and data plots of
the maximum sustained 1-min surface winds and minimum central pressure,
respectively, as a function of time. These plots include data gathered by
aircraft reconnaissance and Dvorak satellite classification estimates.
Chris was upgraded to a 35-knot tropical storm based on Dvorak T-numbers of
2.5 from the Tropical Prediction Center, the Satellite Analysis Branch and
the Air Force Weather Agency. At that time, visible satellite images
(Figure 4) depicted the typical curved cloud band
signature of a minimal tropical storm. This was the only data which implied
that Chris may have reached tropical storm status and it is possible that
the Dvorak technique overestimated the intensity. The satellite presentation
deteriorated almost immediately and data from a reconnaissance plane about
five hours later showed only a very poorly defined circulation and winds no
higher than 25 knots.
Best track maximum sustained wind speed and minimum central pressure curves
for Tropical Storm Chris.
c. Casualties and damages
No casualties or damages were associated with Chris.
d. Forecast and warning critique
There were too few forecasts associated with Chris to conduct a meaningful
quantitative forecast evaluation. Despite the prevailing wind-shear
environment , all intensity guidance as well as the official forecast
incorrectly suggested strengthening.
GOES 8 Visible satellite image taken at 1015 UTC 18 August near the time
Chris was classified as a tropical storm.