a. Synoptic History
Kay developed about 600 n mi southwest of the southern tip of Baja
California from a tropical disturbance associated with the Intertropical
Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Initially, there was a small low-level circulation which
moved northward away from the ITCZ, but the convection was weak and disorganized.
The shower activity gradually became concentrated and Dvorak classifications
suggested that a tropical depression formed about 0000 UTC 13 October.
Thereafter, there was a steady intensification and an eye feature developed. It
is estimated that Kay reached hurricane status by 1800 UTC on the same day.
However, the pinhole eye disappeared and a gradual weakening began. Several bursts
of deep convection occurred before Kay dissipated.
Kay remained within a non-descript flow pattern. Consequently, it
moved very little during its lifetime and, in fact, it made a partial cyclonic
loop of 300 n mi in diameter and became associated with the ITCZ.
Kay's track is shown in Fig. 1 (16K GIF)
Table 1 is a listing, at six-hourly intervals, of the
best-track position, estimated minimum central pressure
and maximum 1-minute surface wind speed.
b. Meteorological Statistics
The best track pressure and wind curves as a function of time are
shown in Figs. 2 (22K GIF) and 3
(21K GIF) and are based on satellite intensity estimates from the
Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB), the
Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB)
and the Air Force Weather Agency, (AFGWC in figures). Kay was upgraded to
hurricane status based on an intermittent eye feature and Dvorak estimates
c. Casualty and Damage Statistics
There were no reports of casualties or damage associated with Kay.
d. Forecast and Warning Critique
Kay was a hurricane for about 12 hours and tropical storm
for about two days. Therefore, an evaluation of the average forecast errors would not be
meaningful. However, track guidance was divergent through the entire life cycle of
the tropical cyclone.