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Preliminary Report
Tropical Storm Pablo
4 - 8 October 1995

Miles B. Lawrence
National Hurricane Center
4 December 1995

Hurricane Allison
Tropical Storm Barry
Tropical Storm Chantal
Tropical Storm Dean
Hurricane Erin
Tropical Depression Six
Hurricane Felix
Tropical Storm Gabrielle
Hurricane Humberto
Hurricane Iris
Tropical Storm Jerry
Tropical Storm Karen
Hurricane Luis
Tropical Depression Fourteen
Hurricane Marilyn
Hurricane Noel
Hurricane Opal
Tropical Storm Pablo
Hurricane Roxanne
Tropical Storm Sebastien
Hurricane Tanya

[1995 Atlantic Hurricane Season]

a. Synoptic History

Pablo was a Cape Verde-type tropical storm that did not affect land.

Pablo originated from a tropical wave which moved from Africa to the Atlantic Ocean on October 3rd. The wave acquired a low- level circulation and became a tropical depression at 1800 UTC on the 4th, while it moved westward at 15 to 20 knots and was centered about 600 n mi southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. The official track of Pablo, listed in Table 1 and plotted in Fig. 1 (41K GIF), begins at this time.

Pablo became a tropical storm on the 5th. Its movement was rather fast toward the west-northwest and then west across the tropical Atlantic for the next three days under the influence of deep easterlies. It is estimated that the storm's sustained winds reached their maximum value of 50 knots on the 6th and then stayed near 45 knots until the 8th, when the storm encountered very strong vertical shear and quickly dissipated while centered about 135 n mi east-southeast of Barbados.

b. Meteorological Statistics

Only one reconnaissance mission investigated Pablo on the morning of the 8th, and was unable to locate a well-defined low- level wind center. The minimum sea-level pressure and flight-level wind speed observations from this aircraft are plotted in Figs. 2 and 3 (45K GIF), respectively. Wind speed estimates from satellite data are plotted in Fig. 3 and the corresponding pressure from the Dvorak pressure-wind relation is plotted in Fig. 2.

One ship reported tropical-storm-force winds from Pablo and its observations are listed in Table 2.

c. Casualty and Damage Statistics

There are no deaths or damages attributed to Pablo.

d. Forecast and Warning Critique

The official track forecast errors for Pablo averaged 127 n mi at 24 hours based on nine cases, 198 n mi at 48 hours from five cases, and 314 n mi at 72 hours from only one case. These errors are slightly above the previous ten-year averages. In the early stages, Pablo was over-forecast to become a 65-knot hurricane and this resulted in a positive bias to the official wind speed forecast errors.

A tropical storm watch was issued for Martinique, Dominica and Guadeloupe at 2100 UTC on the 7th, when Pablo was centered about 370 n mi east of Barbados. This watch was extended to include St. Maarten, Saba and St. Eustatius six hours later, and to include Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines at 0900 UTC on the 8th. The watch was extended again at 1500 UTC to include Grenada and was, at the same time, discontinued for St. Maarten, Saba and St. Eustatius. Finally, all watches for the Lesser Antilles were discontinued at 1800 UTC on the 8th, as Pablo was dissipating.

Table 1. Track of Tropical Storm Pablo, October 1995
Position Pressure
Wind Speed
Lat. (°N)Lon. (°W)
18008.3 31.4100930 Trop. Depression
120010.237.5100635Trop. Storm
120012.157.5100930 Trop. Depression
1800     dissipated
06/060012.044.099450 minimum pressure

Table 2. Ship reports of 34 knots or higher wind speed, associated with Tropical Storm Pablo, October 1995.
ship namelat.(°W)lon.(°W) wind dir
& speed(kt)

Brian Maher
Jack Beven

Last updated January 8, 1999