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Preliminary Report
Hurricane Erin
31 July - 6 August 1995

Edward N. Rappaport
National Hurricane Center
26 November 1995

Hurricane Allison
Tropical Storm Barry
Tropical Storm Chantal
Tropical Storm Dean
Hurricane Erin
Tropical Depression Six
Hurricane Felix
Tropical Storm Gabrielle
Hurricane Humberto
Hurricane Iris
Tropical Storm Jerry
Tropical Storm Karen
Hurricane Luis
Tropical Depression Fourteen
Hurricane Marilyn
Hurricane Noel
Hurricane Opal
Tropical Storm Pablo
Hurricane Roxanne
Tropical Storm Sebastien
Hurricane Tanya


[1995 Atlantic Hurricane Season]

a. Synoptic History

Erin formed from a tropical wave that crossed from the coast of Africa to the tropical eastern Atlantic Ocean on 22 July 1995. A large area of disturbed weather and two distinct low-level circulation centers accompanied the wave. The circulation centers were oriented from northwest to southeast and moved in tandem toward the west-northwest over the following five days.

By the 27th, both circulations were generating deep convection a few hundred miles to the northeast of the Leeward Islands. A day later, meteorologists at the NHC Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB, formerly TSAF as in figures) and the NESDIS Synoptic Analysis Branch (SAB) assigned Dvorak technique T-numbers of 1.5 to the trailing cloud cluster. These numbers increased to T-2.5, potentially indicative of a tropical cyclone with 35 knot (tropical storm force) winds by midday on the 30th. In reality, although the cloud pattern was slowly consolidating and surface pressures were falling ahead of the system in the Bahamas, development was retarded by southwesterly vertical wind shear associated with an upper-level low that was moving southwestward at 10-15 knots across Florida. Reconnaissance aircraft data from the U.S. Air Force Reserves (Hurricane Hunters) on the 28th, 29th, and again during midday on the 30th indicated that the system did not have a closed circulation at low levels. Instead it was a very vigorous tropical wave--winds speeds around 40 knots were reported from ships in the northern part of the cloud pattern.

Because of the system's potential for development and its close proximity to the Bahamas and Florida, a special nighttime reconnaissance mission was requested by the NHC and flown by the Hurricane Hunters late on the 30th. The first "vortex message" was transmitted to the NHC shortly after 0100 UTC on the 31st. From that information it is estimated that the system became Tropical Storm Erin at 0000 UTC on the 31st (Fig. 1 [47K GIF], Table 1).

The upper-level low near Florida affected Erin's movement and development. Associated steering currents accelerated Erin from 5 to 15 knots and diverted the cyclone around the northeast side of the low. The temporary and fairly subtle change of heading from west-northwest to northwest might have been insignificant if Erin had not been so close to land. Instead, the track of the center was deflected to a course that was over or near much of the Bahama Island chain and then toward a landfall over east-central (rather than southeast) Florida. As this occurred, enough shearing persisted to permit only slow strengthening. On the evening of the 31st, Erin became a hurricane while centered near Rum Cay in the Bahamas. A ragged-looking eye appeared on satellite pictures on August 1st. Erin made landfall around 0600 UTC on the 2nd near Vero Beach, Florida as a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale, with estimated maximum one-minute wind speeds of 75 knots.

Erin's track bent back to west-northwest while the cyclone crossed the Florida peninsula during the morning and early afternoon of the 2nd. The cyclone weakened to a tropical storm with 50-knot winds during that period, but remained well-organized. Upon emerging into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, Erin reintensified on a track that gradually swung back to northwestward at about 10 knots. Final landfall occurred near Pensacola, Florida during the late morning of the 3rd. An eye had redeveloped but upper-level outflow was not particularly impressive on satellite images. Erin had around 85 knot winds (Category 2) in a small area of its northeastern eyewall when that part of the hurricane came ashore near Fort Walton Beach in the western Florida panhandle.

Erin weakened to a tropical storm in southeastern Mississippi overnight on the 3rd/4th. It was a tropical depression when its track shifted to the north on the 5th and the east on the 6th. The depression merged with a frontal system over West Virginia on the 6th.

b. Meteorological Statistics

Erin's intensity was estimated from the data presented in Figs. 2 and 3 (84K GIF) and Table 2. Those figures show the curves of Erin's central pressure and maximum one-minute wind speed, respectively, versus time, along with the observations on which they were based. The figures contain relevant surface observations and intensity estimates derived from analyses of satellite images performed by the TAFB, SAB and the Air Force Global Weather Central (AFGWC). The aircraft data came from reconnaissance flights by the U.S. Air Force Reserve unit based at Keesler Air Force Base, Mississippi.

Table 2 lists a selection of surface observations. The highest wind at the surface was a gust to 128 knots reported in association with a tornado at Providenciales in the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Several reports of hurricane force winds (WMO-standard 10- minute average) were received from the Bahamas, including 68 and 70 knots during the passage of the northeast part of the eyewall over Cat Island at 0200 UTC and 0400 UTC, respectively, on August 1st. These 10-min winds are about 80 percent of the 86 knot maximum 10-second 850 mb flight-level winds encountered by the reconnaissance aircraft. Several amateur radio reports included gusts to around 90 knots in the Bahamas. The ship Tampa was in the northeastern eyewall at 1200 UTC on the 1st when it reported 70 knot winds.

The basis for the 75-knot wind speed estimate along the Florida east coast was a one-minute wind speed of 74.6 knots recorded by a Florida Institute of Technology anemometer which made one observation per hour at Sebastian Inlet. This wind appears to coincide with the passage of one of Erin's strongest convective cells at that time (0500 UTC), which was located in the northwestern eyewall. While somewhat higher winds could have been expected to occur offshore in the (normally stronger) northeastern eyewall, Doppler radar data for that area suggests that the peak winds (inbound toward Melbourne) at the lowest tilt angle were only slightly stronger, around 85 knots. The maximum 850 mb flight-level wind speed then was around 85 knots.

A wind speed of 85 knots is estimated at 1330 UTC on 3 August near Fort Walton Beach. This took place in a small area within Erin's strongest sector, the northeastern eyewall, as it swept across the shoreline. That estimate is based largely on NWS Mobile office Doppler wind data which showed inbound wind speeds exceeding 100 knots in a few volume samples centered at about 9,800 feet above the coast from 1320 to 1400 UTC. The peak 850 mb flight-level wind speed leading up to this time was 92 knots in the northeastern eyewall near 1200 UTC, but subsequent excursions into that part of the hurricane were precluded by the hurricane's close proximity to land.

Doppler velocities decreased by about 15 knots over the following two hours and 75 knots is the estimated maximum surface wind speed when the center of the eye came ashore around 1600 UTC. Hence, the coastal region immediately west of Fort Walton Beach, including Pensacola, experienced Category 1 conditions, though gusts to near 100 knots likely occurred. The FAA system of six anemometers at Pensacola Regional Airport (PNS) registered a maximum 30-second wind speed of about 60 knots. The highest wind speed measured at an official reporting station in the Florida panhandle was an 88-knot gust at the Pensacola Naval Air Station (NPA). Amateur radio operators relayed unofficial observations of gusts near 95 knots to the NHC.

The hurricane's lowest pressure of 973 mb was reported by the Hurricane Hunters near 1330 UTC and again near 1600 UTC on the 3rd. The latter measurement placed the center of Erin near the coast and in the southern part of the eye as seen on surface radar.

The Melbourne National Weather Service Office estimated that Erin generated a 2 to 4 foot storm tide during the Florida east coast landfall. Storm tides averaged 1 to 2 feet along the west- central Florida peninsula. According to the Melbourne office, up to about 12 inches of rain fell southwest through northwest of their site. Several small, brief tornadoes occurred over east- central Florida well after Erin made landfall. One tornado caused minor damage in Titusville. Another occurred near Lake Lizzie, killing two horses. A couple of weak tornadoes were also reported over northeast Florida and in the panhandle near Hurlburt Air Force Base.

Storm tides were estimated at 6 to 7 feet just west of Navarre Beach and 3 to 4 feet along Pensacola Beach. Up to about 5 inches of rain was reported from the panhandle.

c. Casualty and Damage Statistics

There were no deaths reported in the Bahamas or in Florida. A total of six deaths occurred in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico waters off Florida. All drowned. The 234-foot gambling and cruise ship Club Royale sank in the Atlantic 90 miles east of Cape Canaveral and three crew members are presumed dead. A 15-year old surfer drowned in a rip current off Palm Beach County. A man and daughter in an inflatable boat were swept from the Cape San Blas area into the Gulf of Mexico where they presumably drowned.

All Bahamas islands from Mayaguana to Grand Bahama suffered damage characterized by the Bahamas Department of Meteorology as mostly minor. Some structural damage, sunken boats, crop loss and flooding was reported. Losses known to date for Abaco, Grand Bahama, Mayaguana, and Exuma total $400,000.

The American Insurance Services Group estimated $375 million as the loss to insured property in the United States caused by Erin ($350 million in Florida, $20 million in Alabama, and $5 million in Mississippi). Because the total loss is usually estimated by the NHC to be up to about double the insured loss, the total U.S. loss is tentatively estimated at $700 million.

Wind damage occurred over east-central and northeast Florida. Thousands of homes and businesses suffered damage in Brevard county. Less significant damage occurred in other counties in the region. Freshwater flooding from rainfall occurred in the Melbourne and Palm Bay areas and westward in some spots to the Florida gulf coast. Beach erosion occurred along the central Florida east coast, with damage mainly to boardwalks, beach accessways and the dune system. Light to moderate beach erosion was also reported northward to the Georgia border. Minor erosion occurred along the west-central Florida coast.

The most significant structural damage for the final landfall occurred on Pensacola Beach, Navarre Beach, around Mary Esther and in northeast Pensacola. More than 2,000 homes were damaged there and crop losses were reported. Some beach erosion was reported west of Navarre Beach. Farther inland, about 100 homes were damaged in Alabama. Widespread tree, power line and crop damage extended inland.

d. Forecast and Warning Critique

Prior to Erin becoming a tropical cyclone and the NHC initiating advisories, forecasts and warnings for the precursor tropical wave/gale system were issued in High Seas Forecasts of the NWS Tropical Prediction Center. During that period, NHC Tropical Weather Outlooks indicated that the wave could soon become a tropical depression or tropical storm. Nevertheless, no lead time (in the traditional sense of tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings) was available to the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas. For the future, it might be worth considering whether and how to issue such watches/warnings (and, perhaps, track forecasts) for systems near land that could rapidly become a threatening tropical cyclone.

Compared to the most recent 10-year averages, the NHC track forecast errors for Erin were of about normal magnitude at 12 and 24 hours and much smaller than normal at 48 and 72 hours (Table 3). The first few NHC forecasts and the corresponding numerical guidance did not accurately incorporate the effects of the upper- level low near Florida on the path of Erin, and generally showed the cyclone making landfall over southeast Florida. Intensity forecasts were generally quite good, although in the first two forecasts not enough strengthening was shown because the deleterious effects of strong vertical wind shear were incorrectly forecast to persist.

Some people in the Pensacola area indicated that they did not have sufficient notice of Erin's approach (see Table 4). Table 5 shows lead times for that area of about 37, 25, and 21 hours for the tropical storm watch, tropical storm warning, and hurricane warning, respectively. Although there was no hurricane watch, the other lead times are close to normal and, based on past experience, should have been sufficient to accomplish the necessary tasks to protect life and property. In fact, there were no lives lost in that area.

Rather than lack of lead time, it appears that the hurricane warning was not taken seriously. Comments suggest one reason was that the NHC forecasts did not show the cyclone center moving directly over Pensacola. This is a critical misuse of NHC's forecasts. The users of NHC advisory information are encouraged to be familiar with potential track errors (Table 3) and to understand that warning areas are designated with those uncertainties in mind. In addition, cyclones which move along a course roughly parallel to the coast pose an additional problem because even a slight sideways jog of the hurricane or nonuniformity of the coastline can result in landfall. In the limiting case, the center of the eye can remain just offshore, but the entire coast could experience the eyewall and its destructive hurricane conditions. In the future, to ameliorate this kind of situation, the NHC will further their efforts to deemphasize the precise forecast track in favor of the threat implied by a watch or warning.

Apparently, a second problem was that Erin was "only" a tropical storm when the hurricane warning was issued on the afternoon of August 2. Residents were "surprised" to find out that Erin had become a hurricane (as was forecast) when they awoke on the morning of the 3rd. Hence, the public did not give enough attention to the intensity forecast--but paid too close attention to details of the track forecast. In both instances, the hurricane warning should have been the overriding consideration driving public response.


Some information in this report was provided by the Forecast Office of the Bahamas Department of Meteorology and by NWS offices in the watch and warning areas.

Table 1. Track of Hurricane Erin, 31 July - 6 August, 1995
Position Pressure
Wind Speed
Lat. (°N)Lon. (°W)
31/000022.373.2100445 Tropical Storm
060022.673.6100350" "
120022.873.999955" "
180023.274.399760" "
060024.375.798875" "
120025.576.398575" "
180026.377.798075" "
02/000026.979.098275" "
060027.780.498575" "
120028.281.999050Tropical Storm
180028.683.498860" "
060029.385.797970" "
120029.886.697480" "
180030.687.598565" "
04/000031.488.599745 Tropical Storm
060032.389.1100135" "
120033.289.7100320 Tropical Depression
180034.190.2100320" "
05/000034.890.2100320" "
060035.490.1100320" "
120036.389.8100320" "
180037.588.8100320" "
06/000038.486.8100320" "
060038.784.9100520" "
120038.882.0100820 Merged with front
03/133030.086.897385 Mx. Speed/Mn. Press.
03/160030.387.297375 Minimum Pressure
Landfall information:
Many islands in the Bahamas chain either had a landfall or received a "direct hit", defined as coming within one Radius of Maximum Wind (RMW) to the left of the cyclone center or two RMW to the right of center.
near Vero Beach, Florida
near Fort Walton Beach, Florida (landfall of eyewall)
03/1330   85 Hurricane
Pensacola Beach, Florida

Table 2. Hurricane Erin selected surface observations, July-August 1995.
(kt) a
Peak gust
(kt) b
(ft) c
Cat Island989.201/060070 01/0400   
Grand Bahama987.801/22506889 01/2146  
Church Grove, Crooked I.       12.18
San Salvador1000.001/010052  01/0100  
Exuma1003.301/060045 01/0100   
Long Island995.931/210040 31/1800   
Sebastian Inlet985.102/060075  02/0500  
Melbourne (MLB)985.802/0700 66 02/0803 8.81
Vero Beach (VRB)986.102/0554 61 02/0449 2.46
Orlando Int. (ORL)994.802/0907 54 02/1003  
Daytona Beach (DAB)1004.702/0856 39 02/0816 0.59
Port St. Lucie City Hall  45 5202/0530-
Cape Canaveral (USAF)    71 d02/0710  
Melbourne NWSO   72 E 02/0555 10.14
Melbourne 5N       8.29
Vero Beach 4W       3.14
Sebastian 2S       2.05
Melbourne 10S980.802/0714      
Ft. Pierce Intercoastal989.802/04153048 02/0415  
Orlando (MCO)       2.96
Jacksonville (JAX)1010.802/11502237 02/1922 2.07
Jacksonville NAS1008.102/1055 42 02/1042 1.26
Mayport Navy Base1008.002/1155 45 02/1255  
Mayport Montys Marina   50 02/1300  
Fernandina Harbor   62 02/1300  
Jacksonville Bch Pier   60 02/1415  
Gainesville (GNV)1006.802/1445 2802/1145  1.80
Ocala unofficial1002.002/1330 41   2.38
Crystal River   44 02/1630  
Brooksville ASOS   40 02/1113  
New Port Richey ASOS993.302/14372439 02/1755  
St. Petersburg ASOS  3141 02/1250  
Tampa Int. Arpt. ASOS  2938 02/1312  
Port Tampa  303602/1159   
Ruskin NWSO TBW   37 02/1820  
Sunshine Skyway Bridge  2843 02/1842  
Lake Wales   6102/1815   
Lakeland (LAL)993.602/1200203802/1100   
Winter Haven ASOS987.502/11073142 02/0994  
Sarasota (SRQ)1002.402/1347203502/1952   
St. Augustine       0.75
Jacksonville Beach      1-2 E1.35
Flagler Beach      3-5 E 
St. Augustine Beach      2-3 E 
Marineland      2-3 E 
Fernandina Beach      1-2 E 
Near Defuniak Springs       20.00
Defuniak Springs FL Forestry tower       11.00
Homestead (HST)       3.87
West Palm Beach (PBI)1000.902/0239222802/0405  3.80
Miami (MIA)1005.201/2350     2.56
Fort Lauderdale1004.202/0048     6.75
Hollywood       6.25
West Kendall (TMB)       4.19
Miami Beach (MIBF1)  2337 03/0000 2.56
Tallahassee (TLH)1007.002/21302734 02/2117 0.80
Apalachicola NWS1001.602/2151 50 02/2159  
St. George Island   64    
Panama City Airport  3045 03/1449  
Panama City Beach       5.40
Eglin AFB (VPS)99203/13554358 03/1355 2.78
Destin (ASOS)  3644 03/1151  
Pensacola NAS (NPA)976 e03/160055 8803/1600 2.19
Whiting Field NAS (NSE)  44 5103/1625 3.76
Hurlburt Field (HRT)98803/140970 E 85 E03/1409 4.06
Pensacola Regional Airport
FAA--6 anemometers
   60 03/----  
Navarre Beach      6-7 E 
Pensacola Beach      3-4 E 
Mobile (MOB) (ASOS)99703/20292544 03/1950 2.56
Fairhope (ASOS)  324303/1834  3.92
Ship Reports:
C6CM7 (23.4°N 72.9°W)1005.031/000046  31/0000  
LAEB2 (20.1°N 71.0°W)1010.301/000035  01/0000  
Tampa (25.7°N 76.1°W)995.701/120070  01/1200  
ELKI6 (26.7°N 76.0°W)1007.001/120050  01/1200  
OYSN2 (26.2°N 74.5°W)1007.501/180058  01/1800  
ELKI6 (26.9°N 74.9°W)1011.001/180060  01/1800  
UUZU? (27.0°N 79.5°W)995.902/000054  02/0000  
9VUM (27.6°N 75.9°W)1009.502/000035  02/0000  
C6HH4 (30.3°N 81.1°W)1014.002/000035  02/0000  
C6HH4 (29.7°N 80.3°W)1009.002/060038  02/0600  
     (26.2°N 74.5°W)1014.102/0600 34 02/0000  
NGTB (31.0°N 79.5°W)1013.502/060035  02/0600  
DQFT (31.0°N 80.0°W)1014.502/060039  02/0600  
DNGV (28.0°N 76.9°W)1015.502/120035  02/1200  
DQFT (30.2°N 79.3°W)1011.502/120041  02/1200  
     (30.5°N 78.9°W)1012.702/1200 37 02/1200  
WGMA (31.0°N 80.0°W)1012.102/120038  02/1200  
WRYX (31.2°N 78.5°W)1014.002/120045  02/1200  
     (31.6°N 78.6°W)1015.702/1200 38 02/1200  
DNGV (27.5°N 78.0°W)1017.202/180034  02/1800  
KRJP (28.5°N 79.3°W)1014.002/180035  02/1800  
VRUQ2 (28.7°N 79.3°W)1012.802/180048  02/1800  
C6HH4 (29.2°N 79.8°W)1011.002/180034  02/1800  
     (30.5°N 79.3°W)1014.102/1800 34 02/1800  
     (30.7°N 78.4°W)1016.902/1800 37 02/1800  
GOYE (28.4°N 78.7°W)1014.803/000035  03/0000  
C6HH4 (28.8°N 79.5°W)1014.003/000040  03/0000  
WPPO (29.2°N 80.1°W)1017.003/000035  03/0000  
NDBC Buoys and C-MAN stations:
Buoy 41009999.902/0600,
4153 02/0500  
Buoy 410101007.002/02003546 02/0300  
Buoy 42036991.903/00003445 03/0100  
Buoy 42007  2938 03/1930  
SPGF1  3555 02/0020  
LKWF11001.802/03003240 01/2200  
SAUF11007.902/11003742 02/0150  
CDRF11001.702/16004050 02/1700  
CSBF1  3854 03/1300  
DPIA1  3644 03/1800  

a NWS standard is one-minute period, except for ASOS which is two minutes. WMO standard is 10 minutes. Ship reports are often Beaufort estimates with remainder of unknown averaging period and from anemometers at unknown height. NOAA buoys report hourly 8-min average wind and 10-min wind otherwise. C-MAN station reports are 2-min average winds at the top of the hour and 10-min averages at other times. FAA anemometers at PNS had 30-second averages. Contact National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) for additional details. In many cases, a more extreme value could have occurred.

b Time of sustained wind unless only gust is given.

c Storm tide is water height relative to National Geodetic Vertical Datum (NGVD) which is defined as mean sea level in 1929.

d Non-standard elevation.

e Trace shows 979 mb minimum

E Estimated

Table 3
Hurricane Erin track forecast verification: Heterogeneous sample.

(Errors in nautical miles for tropical storm and hurricane stages with number of forecasts in parenthesis)
Forecast TechniquePeriod (hours)
GFDI44 (15)73 (13)90 (11)95 (9)224 (5)
GFDL *45 (8)76 (7)95 (6)99 (5) 183 (3)
VBAR *50 (15)96 (13)131 (11)147 (9) 152 (6)
BAMD47 (16)78 (14)95 (12)89 (10)97 (6)
BAMM45 (16)74 (14)89 (12)101 (10)193 (6)
BAMS49 (16)84 (14)118 (12)160 (10)305 (6)
A90E56 (16)100 (14)119 (12)118 (10)120 (6)
AVNI53 (14)107 (13)147 (11)199 (9)406 (5)
CLIP56 (16)121 (14)193 (12)277 (10)381 (6)
NHC Official53 (16)96 (14)103 (12)89 (10) 138 (6)
NHC Official [1]5098 194296

[1] 1985-94 10-yr average

* Not available until after forecast was issued

Table 4
Hurricane Erin watch and warning summary
31/0330 Tropical Storm Warning issued Central and Southeast Bahamas
Tropical Storm Watch issuedNorthwest Bahamas
Tropical Storm Watch issued Florida east coast Sebastian Inlet southward through Florida Keys including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay and Florida west coast Venice southward
31/0900Tropical Storm Warning issued Northwest Bahamas
31/1500Hurricane Warning issued Sebastian Inlet southward through Florida Keys including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay and all of the Bahamas
Hurricane Watch issued Florida west coast from Venice southward to Everglades City and for Lake Okeechobee
01/0200Hurricane Warning discontinued Southeastern Bahamas
01/0300 Tropical Storm Warning issued North of Sebastian Inlet to New Smyrna Beach
Hurricane Watch issued Florida west coast Bayport southward and for Lake Okeechobee
01/0900Hurricane Warning issued Lake Okeechobee
01/1500Hurricane Warning issued Sebastian Inlet to New Symrna Beach
Tropical Storm Warning issued New Smyrna Beach to St Augustine
Hurricane Warning discontinuedCentral Bahamas
Hurricane Watch issuedNorth of Bayport to Cedar Key
01/1800Hurricane Warning discontinued Florida Keys from Key Largo southward
01/2100 Tropical Storm Warning issued Florida west coast from Fort Myers to Suwanee River
Tropical Storm Watch issued Suwanee River to Apalachicola
Hurricane Watch discontinuedFort Myers southward
02/0000Hurricane Warning discontinued Florida east coast south of Hallandale
02/0100Hurricane Warning discontinued New Providence and Andros Islands
02/0300 Tropical Storm Warning issued Suwanee River to Apalachicola
Tropical Storm Watch issuedApalachicola to Pensacola
02/0700Hurricane Warning discontinued Florida east coast southward from Deerfield Beach
02/0900 Hurricane Warning discontinued Remaining areas
Tropical Storm Warning issued Florida east coast from Fernandina Beach southward to Jupiter Inlet including Lake Okeechobee
Tropical Storm Warning issued Florida Gulf Coast Longboat Key to Apalachicola
02/1000Hurricane Warning discontinued Remainder of Bahamas
02/1100Tropical Storm Warning discontinued Lake Okeechobee
02/1500 Tropical Storm Warning issued Apalachicola to Pensacola
Tropical Storm Watch issued Pensacola to mouth of Pearl River
02/1900 Hurricane Warning issued Suwannee River to mouth of Pearl River
Hurricane Watch issued South of mouth of Pearl River to mouth of Mississippi River including city of New Orleans
02/2300Hurricane Warning issued Mouth of Pearl River to mouth of Mississippi River including city of New Orleans
03/0100Tropical Storm Warning discontinued Long Boat Key to mouth of Suwannee River
03/0300 Hurricane Warning issued Mouth of Mississippi River to Grand Isle Louisiana
Hurricane Watch issued Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana
03/0500Hurricane Warning issued Grand Isle to Morgan City
03/0900Hurricane Warning discontinued East of Apalachicola
03/1900Hurricane Warning discontinued West of mouth of Pearl River and for New Orleans
03/2100Hurricane Warning discontinued Remaining areas

Table 5
Watch and warning lead times for U.S. sites during Hurricane Erin.
Lead time refers to time lapsed from issuance to landfall of circulation center.
LocationTypeLead Time (hours)
Florida east coast
(Vero Beach)
Tropical Storm Watch51
Hurricane Warning39
Florida panhandle
Tropical Storm Watch37
Tropical Storm Warning25
Hurricane Warning21

Brian Maher
Jack Beven

Last updated January 2, 1999