Erick was an uneventful tropical cyclone
over the eastern north Pacific Ocean.
a. Synoptic History
A tropical wave
that crossed from the west coast of Africa to
the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean on 17 July was the precursor to
Erick. This system showed some semblance of organization on
satellite images over the eastern Atlantic on 18-19 July, but
convection diminished during the ensuing three days, making the
system difficult to track on satellite pictures. Rawinsonde data
at 700 mb indicated that the wave entered the extreme eastern
Caribbean Sea on 23 July, and the associated shower activity
increased slightly that day over the Windward Islands. The system
continued westward over the Caribbean, and thunderstorms increased
over the western Caribbean on the 26th. Surface observations
showed a wind shift in the Caribbean in the vicinity of 81°W,
presumably related to this wave.
On the 27th, the wave crossed Central America. Over the next
two days, a disorganized area of deep convection, associated with
the wave, moved westward over the Pacific waters just to the south
of Mexico. The cloudiness and thunderstorms became more consolidated
a couple hundred miles south of Manzanillo on 30 July, and
Dvorak classifications
on the system were initiated at 0900 UTC 31 July. By 1800 UTC on 1 August,
visible satellite pictures showed distinct evidence of low-level rotation,
and it is estimated that a tropical depression
(Six-E) formed at that time, about 450 n mi south of the southern tip of Baja
California (Table 1).
Figure 1 (32K GIF) shows the overall track of
this system.
After formation, the tropical cyclone moved generally
southwestward for about 24 hours and then turned to a northwestward
heading. Easterly shearing was occurring over the area, and
strengthening proceeded at a slow pace. It was not until 0600 UTC
4 August that satellite analysis indicated that the
cyclone had reached
tropical storm
strength. After becoming a storm, Erick
moved west-northwestward with gradual intensification; the cyclone
continued to be influenced by modest easterly shear. The intensity
plateaued near 55 knots by 0000 UTC on the 5th and
a weakening trend was underway by 1200 UTC that day. The mid-tropospheric
ridge to the north of the storm began to break down, and Erick
gradually turned northward, toward cooler water, while steadily
weakening. By 1200 UTC on the 6th, the system had weakened to a
depression. After drifting east-northeastward, Erick dissipated
around 0600 UTC 8 August.
b. Meteorological Statistics
The post-analysis best track
intensities for Erick are listed in Table 1
and displayed in Figs. 2 (25K GIF)
and 3 (27K GIF), which show
the estimated minimum central pressure and maximum one-minute wind speed,
respectively, versus time. These intensity estimates were derived
mainly from analyses of satellite images, using the Dvorak
technique, performed by meteorologists at the
Synoptic Analysis Branch (SAB),
the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB;
formerly the Tropical Satellite Analysis and Forecast unit, TSAF, as in the figures), and the
Air Force Global Weather Central
(AFGWC).
c. Casualty and Damage Statistics
No reports of casualties or damage have been received at the
NHC.
d. Forecast and Warning Critique
Erick was a tropical storm for only 48 hours, so there were
only a few forecasts to verify. In general, Erick moved to the
right of the official track forecasts and did not strengthen as
much as was predicted by the official forecasts.
Erick remained well out at sea and warnings were not required.
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