Hurricane HOME ARCHIVES FORECASTS IMAGERY ABOUT TPC RECONNAISSANCE
[NCEP Logo]

Preliminary Report
Tropical Storm Erick
1-8 August 1995

Richard J. Pasch
National Hurricane Center
1 February 1996


PRELIMINARY REPORTS
Tropical Depression One-E
Hurricane Adolph
Hurricane Barbara
Hurricane Cosme
Tropical Storm Dalila
Tropical Storm Erick
Hurricane Flossie
Tropical Storm Gil
Hurricane Henriette
Hurricane Ismael
Hurricane Juliette


[1995 East Pacific Hurricane Season]

Erick was an uneventful tropical cyclone over the eastern north Pacific Ocean.



a. Synoptic History

A tropical wave that crossed from the west coast of Africa to the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean on 17 July was the precursor to Erick. This system showed some semblance of organization on satellite images over the eastern Atlantic on 18-19 July, but convection diminished during the ensuing three days, making the system difficult to track on satellite pictures. Rawinsonde data at 700 mb indicated that the wave entered the extreme eastern Caribbean Sea on 23 July, and the associated shower activity increased slightly that day over the Windward Islands. The system continued westward over the Caribbean, and thunderstorms increased over the western Caribbean on the 26th. Surface observations showed a wind shift in the Caribbean in the vicinity of 81°W, presumably related to this wave.

On the 27th, the wave crossed Central America. Over the next two days, a disorganized area of deep convection, associated with the wave, moved westward over the Pacific waters just to the south of Mexico. The cloudiness and thunderstorms became more consolidated a couple hundred miles south of Manzanillo on 30 July, and Dvorak classifications on the system were initiated at 0900 UTC 31 July. By 1800 UTC on 1 August, visible satellite pictures showed distinct evidence of low-level rotation, and it is estimated that a tropical depression (Six-E) formed at that time, about 450 n mi south of the southern tip of Baja California (Table 1). Figure 1 (32K GIF) shows the overall track of this system.

After formation, the tropical cyclone moved generally southwestward for about 24 hours and then turned to a northwestward heading. Easterly shearing was occurring over the area, and strengthening proceeded at a slow pace. It was not until 0600 UTC 4 August that satellite analysis indicated that the cyclone had reached tropical storm strength. After becoming a storm, Erick moved west-northwestward with gradual intensification; the cyclone continued to be influenced by modest easterly shear. The intensity plateaued near 55 knots by 0000 UTC on the 5th and a weakening trend was underway by 1200 UTC that day. The mid-tropospheric ridge to the north of the storm began to break down, and Erick gradually turned northward, toward cooler water, while steadily weakening. By 1200 UTC on the 6th, the system had weakened to a depression. After drifting east-northeastward, Erick dissipated around 0600 UTC 8 August.


b. Meteorological Statistics

The post-analysis best track intensities for Erick are listed in Table 1 and displayed in Figs. 2 (25K GIF) and 3 (27K GIF), which show the estimated minimum central pressure and maximum one-minute wind speed, respectively, versus time. These intensity estimates were derived mainly from analyses of satellite images, using the Dvorak technique, performed by meteorologists at the Synoptic Analysis Branch (SAB), the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB; formerly the Tropical Satellite Analysis and Forecast unit, TSAF, as in the figures), and the Air Force Global Weather Central (AFGWC).


c. Casualty and Damage Statistics

No reports of casualties or damage have been received at the NHC.


d. Forecast and Warning Critique

Erick was a tropical storm for only 48 hours, so there were only a few forecasts to verify. In general, Erick moved to the right of the official track forecasts and did not strengthen as much as was predicted by the official forecasts.

Erick remained well out at sea and warnings were not required.


 
Table 1. Post-analysis best track, Tropical Storm Erick, 1-8 August, 1995
Date/Time
(UTC)
Position Pressure
(mb)
Wind Speed
(kt)
Stage
Lat. (°N)Lon. (°W)
01/180015.4110.8100825 Tropical Depression
02/000014.9112.0100825" "
060014.5112.6100825" "
120014.1112.9100725" "
180013.8113.2100625" "
03/000013.8113.7100630" "
060014.1114.1100530" "
120014.6114.5100530" "
180015.3115.1100530" "
04/000015.9115.9100530" "
060016.2116.8100435 Tropical Storm
120016.5117.7100045" "
180016.8118.599750" "
05/000017.2119.299455" "
060017.6119.999455" "
120018.1120.399750" "
180018.6120.7100045" "
06/000018.9121.0100240" "
060019.2121.3100435" "
120019.4121.3100430 Tropical Depression
180019.6121.2100430" "
07/000019.9121.2100430" "
060020.3121.1100430" "
120020.5121.0100425" "
180020.6120.8100525" "
08/000020.7120.6100625" "
0600     Dissipated
 
05/000017.2119.299455 Minimum Pressure



Brian Maher
Jack Beven

Last updated January 2, 1999