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Preliminary Report
Hurricane Andrew
16 - 28 August, 1992

Ed Rappaport
National Hurricane Center
(updated 10 December 1993)
(addendum 7 February 2005 - category 5 upgrade)


The last radar image taken from NHC before the WSR-57 radar was blown off the roof, 0835 UTC August 24, 1992. (120K JPEG)

Infrared image of Andrew over Dade county at 0900 UTC August 24, 1992. (566K GIF)
The landfall pressure has since been revised to 922 mb.

NWS Melbourne WSR-88D image of Andrew over South Florida, 1011 UTC August 24, 1992. (99K GIF)

Map of selected observations in Dade county. (24K GIF)

Visible image of Andrew approaching south Louisiana at 2000 UTC August 25, 1992. (349K GIF)

NWS Houston WSR-88D image of Andrew making landfall over Louisiana, 0746 UTC August 26, 1992. (99K GIF)


The roof sign says it all! (555K GIF)

Lakes by the Bay (751K GIF)

Naranja Lakes (524K GIF)

Naranja Lakes (563K GIF)

Naranja Lakes (520K GIF)

Homestead Fl. (530K GIF)

Homestead Fl. (434K GIF)

Homestead Fl. (324K GIF)

Additional damage images courtesy of Roger Edwards of the Storm Prediction Center.

Andrew was a small and ferocious Cape Verde hurricane that wrought unprecedented economic devastation along a path through the northwestern Bahamas, the southern Florida peninsula, and south-central Louisiana. Damage in the United States is estimated to be near 25 billion, making Andrew the most expensive natural disaster in U.S. history1. The tropical cyclone struck southern Dade County, Florida, especially hard, with violent winds and storm surges characteristic of a category 4 hurricane (see addendum on upgrade to category 5) on the Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale, and with a central pressure (922 mb) that is the third lowest this century for a hurricane at landfall in the United States. In Dade County alone, the forces of Andrew resulted in 15 deaths and up to one-quarter million people left temporarily homeless. An additional 25 lives were lost in Dade County from the indirect effects of Andrew2. The direct loss of life seems remarkably low considering the destruction caused by this hurricane.

a. Synoptic History

Satellite pictures and upper-air data indicate that Hurricane Andrew formed from a tropical wave that crossed from the west coast of Africa to the tropical North Atlantic Ocean on 14 August 1992. The wave moved westward at about 20 kt, steered by a swift and deep easterly current on the south side of an area of high pressure. The wave passed to the south of the Cape Verde Islands on the following day. At that point, meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Satellite Analysis and Forecast (TSAF) unit and the Synoptic Analysis Branch (SAB) of the National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service (NESDIS) found the wave sufficiently well-organized to begin classifying the intensity of the system using the Dvorak (1984) analysis technique.

Convection subsequently became more focused in a region of cyclonic cloud rotation. Narrow spiral-shaped bands of clouds developed around the center of rotation on 16 August. At 1800 UTC on the 16th (UTC precedes EDT by four hours), both the TSAF unit and SAB calculated a Dvorak T-number of 2.0 and the "best track" (Table 1 and Fig. 1 [85K GIF]) shows that the transition from tropical wave to tropical depression took place at that time.

The depression was initially embedded in an environment of easterly vertical wind shear. By midday on the 17th, however, the shear diminished. The depression grew stronger and, at 1200 UTC 17 August, it became Andrew, the first Atlantic tropical storm of the 1992 hurricane season. The tropical cyclone continued moving rapidly on a heading which turned from west to west-northwest. This course was in the general direction of the Lesser Antilles.

Between the 17th and 20th of August, the tropical storm passed south of the center of the high pressure area over the eastern Atlantic. Steering currents carried Andrew closer to a strong upper-level low pressure system centered about 500 n mi to the east-southeast of Bermuda and to a trough that extended southward from the low for a few hundred miles. These currents gradually changed and Andrew decelerated on a course which became northwesterly. This change in heading spared the Lesser Antilles from an encounter with Andrew. The change in track also brought the tropical storm into an environment of strong southwesterly vertical wind shear and quite high surface pressures to its north. Although the estimated maximum wind speed of Andrew varied little then, a rather remarkable evolution occurred.

Satellite images suggest that Andrew produced deep convection only sporadically for several days, mainly in several bursts of about 12 hours duration. Also, the deep convection did not persist. Instead, it was stripped away from the low-level circulation by the strong southwesterly flow at upper levels. Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft investigated Andrew and, on the 20th, found that the cyclone had degenerated to the extent that only a diffuse low-level circulation center remained. Andrew's central pressure rose considerably (Fig. 2 [87K GIF]). Nevertheless, the flight-level data indicated that Andrew retained a vigorous circulation aloft. Wind speeds near 70 kt were measured at an altitude of 1500 ft near a convective band lying to the northeast of the low-level center. Hence, Andrew is estimated on 20 August to have been a tropical storm with 40 kt surface winds and an astonishingly high central pressure of 1015 mb (Figs. 2 and 3 [87K GIF]).

Significant changes in the large-scale environment near and downstream from Andrew began by 21 August. Satellite imagery in the water vapor channel indicated that the low aloft to the east-southeast of Bermuda weakened and split. The bulk of the low opened into a trough which retreated northward. That evolution decreased the vertical wind shear over Andrew. The remainder of the low dropped southward to a position just southwest of Andrew where its circulation enhanced the upper-level outflow over the tropical storm. At the same time, a strong and deep high pressure cell formed near the U.S. southeast coast. A ridge built eastward from the high into the southwestern Atlantic with its axis lying just north of Andrew. The associated steering flow over the tropical storm became easterly. Andrew turned toward the west, accelerated to near 16 kt, and quickly intensified.

Andrew reached hurricane strength on the morning of 22 August, thereby becoming the first Atlantic hurricane to form from a tropical wave in nearly two years. An eye formed that morning and the rate of strengthening increased. Just 36 hours later, Andrew reached the borderline between a category 4 and 5 hurricane (see addendum on upgrade to category 5) and was at its peak intensity (Table 1). From 0000 UTC on the 21st (when Andrew had a barely perceptible low-level center) to 1800 UTC on the 23rd the central pressure had fallen by 92 mb, down to 922 mb. A fall of 72 mb occurred during the last 36 hours of that period and qualifies as rapid deepening (Holliday and Thompson, 1979).

The region of high pressure held steady and drove Andrew nearly due west for two and a half days beginning on the 22nd. Andrew was a category 4 hurricane when its eye passed over northern Eleuthera Island in the Bahamas late on the 23rd and then over the southern Berry Islands in the Bahamas early on the 24th. After leaving the Bahamas, Andrew continued moving westward toward southeast Florida.

Andrew weakened when it passed over the western portion of the Great Bahama Bank and the pressure rose to 941 mb. However, the hurricane rapidly reintensified during the last few hours preceding landfall when it moved over the Straits of Florida. During that period, radar, aircraft and satellite data showed a decreasing eye diameter and strengthening "eyewall" convection. Aircraft and inland surface data Fig. 4 [121K GIF]) suggest that the deepening trend continued up to and slightly inland of the coast. For example, the eye temperature measured by the reconnaissance aircraft was at least 1-2C warmer at 1010 UTC (an hour after the eye made landfall) than it was in the last "fix" about 15 n mi offshore at 0804 UTC. These measurements suggest that the convection in the eyewall, and the associated vertical circulation in the eye and eyewall, became more vigorous as the storm moved onshore. The radar data indicated that the convection in the northern eyewall became enhanced with some strong convective elements rotating around the eyewall in a counter-clockwise fashion as the storm made landfall. Numerical models suggest that some enhancement of convection can occur at landfall due to increased boundary-layer convergence in the eyewall region. That situation appeared to have occurred in Andrew. The enhanced convection in the north eyewall probably resulted in strong subsidence in the eye on the inside edge of the north eyewall. This likely contributed to a displacement of the lowest surface pressure to the north of the geometric center of the "radar eye" (cf., Fig. 4 and 6 [107K JPEG]). It is estimated that the central pressure was 922 mb at landfall near Homestead AFB, Florida at 0905 UTC (5:05 A.M. EDT) 24 August (Fig. 4).

The maximum sustained surface wind speed (1-min average at 10 meters [about 33 ft] elevation) during landfall over Florida is estimated at 125 kt (about 145 mph), with gusts at that elevation to at least 150 kt (about 175 mph). The sustained wind speed corresponds to a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale (see addendum on upgrade to category 5). It should be noted that these wind speeds are what is estimated to have occurred within the (primarily northern) eyewall in an open environment such as at an airport, at the standard 10-meter height. The wind experienced at other inland sites was subject to complex interactions of the airflow with trees, buildings, and other obstacles in its path. These obstructions create a turbulent, frictional drag that generally reduces the wind speed. However, they can also produce brief, local accelerations of the wind immediately adjacent to the structures. Hence, the wind speed experienced at a given location, such as at a house in the core region of the hurricane, can vary significantly around the structure, and cannot be specified with certainty. The landfall intensity is discussed further in Section b.

Andrew moved nearly due westward when over land and crossed the extreme southern portion of the Florida peninsula in about four hours. Although the hurricane weakened about one category on the Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale during the transit over land, and the pressure rose to about 950 mb, Andrew was still a major hurricane when its eyewall passed over the extreme southwestern Florida coast.

The first of two cycles of modest intensification commenced when the eye reached the Gulf of Mexico. Also, the hurricane continued to move at a relatively fast pace while its track gradually turned toward the west-northwest.

When Andrew reached the north-central Gulf of Mexico, the high pressure system to its northeast weakened and a strong mid-latitude trough approached the area from the northwest. Steering currents began to change. Andrew turned toward the northwest and its forward speed decreased to about 8 kt. The hurricane struck a sparsely populated section of the south-central Louisiana coast with category 3 intensity at about 0830 UTC on the 26th. The landfall location is about 20 n mi west-southwest of Morgan City.

Andrew weakened rapidly after landfall, to tropical storm strength in about 10 hours and to depression status 12 hours later. During this weakening phase, the cyclone moved northward and then accelerated northeastward. Andrew and its remnants continued to produce heavy rain that locally exceeded 10 inches near its track (Table 2b). By midday on the 28th, Andrew had begun to merge with a frontal system over the mid-Atlantic states.

b. Meteorological Statistics

The best track intensities were obtained from the data presented in Figs. 2, 3, 4, and 5 (95K GIF). The first two of those figures show the curves of Andrew's central pressure and maximum sustained one-minute wind speed, respectively, versus time, along with the observations on which they were based. The figures contain relevant surface observations and intensity estimates derived from analyses of satellite images performed by the TSAF unit, SAB and the Air Force Global Weather Central (USAF in figures). The aircraft data came from reconnaissance flights by the U.S. Air Force Reserve 815th Weather Reconnaissance Squadron based at Keesler AFB, Mississippi. Additional data were collected aboard a NOAA aircraft.

Table 2 lists a selection of surface observations. The anemometer at Harbour Island, near the northern end of Eleuthera Island in the Bahamas, measured a wind speed of 120 kt for an unknown period shortly after 2100 UTC on the 23rd. That wind speed was the maximum that could be registered by the instrument.

Neither of the two conventional measures of hurricane intensity, central barometric pressure and maximum sustained wind speed, were observed at official surface weather stations in close proximity to Andrew at landfall in Florida. Homestead Air Force Base and Tamiami Airport discontinued routine meteorological observations prior to receiving direct hits from the hurricane. Miami International Airport was the next closest station, but it was outside of the eyewall by about 5 nautical miles when Andrew's center passed to the south of that airport.

To supplement the official information, requests for data were made to the public through the local media. Remarkably, more than 100 quantitative observations were received (see Figs. 4 and 5). Many of the reports came from observers who vigilantly took readings through frightening conditions including, in several instances, the moment when their instruments and even their homes were destroyed.

Some of the unofficial observations were dismissed as unrealistic. Others were rendered suspect or eliminated during follow-up inquiries or analyses. The remainder, however, revealed a physically consistent and reasonable pattern.

1. Minimum pressure over Florida

The final offshore "fix" by the reconnaissance aircraft came at 0804 UTC and placed the center of the hurricane only about 15 nautical miles, or roughly one hour of travel time, from the mainland. A dropsonde indicated a pressure of 932 mb at that time. The pressure had been falling at the rate of about 2 mb per hour, but the increasing interaction with land was expected to at least partially offset, if not reverse, that trend. Hence, a landfall pressure within a few millibars of 932 mb seemed reasonable.

Shortly after Andrew's passage, however, reports of minimum pressures below 930 mb were received from the vicinity of Homestead, Florida (Fig. 4). Several of the barometers displaying the lowest pressures were subsequently tested in a pressure chamber and calibrated by the Aircraft Operations Center (AOC) of NOAA. Two key observations came from a Mrs. Hall and Mr. Martens, sister and brother. They rode out the storm in residences about one-quarter mile apart. Mrs. Hall's home was built by her father and grandfather in 1945 to be hurricane-proof. Although some of the windows broke, the 22-inch thick concrete and coral rock walls held steady, allowing her to observe her barometer in relative safety. The AOC tests indicate that the minimum pressure at her home was near 921 mb. The barometer at her brother's home was judged a little more reliable and the reading there was adjusted to 923 mb. Based on the observations and an eastward extrapolation of the pressure pattern to the coastline, Andrew's minimum pressure at landfall is estimated to be 922 mb. This suggests that the trajectory of the dropsonde deployed from the aircraft did not intersect the lowest pressure within the eye.

In the United States, this century, only the Labor Day (Keys') Storm in 1935 [103K GIF] (892 mb) and Hurricane Camille in 1969 [122K GIF] (909 mb) had lower landfall central pressures than Andrew (Hebert et al. 1992).

2. Maximum wind speed over Florida (see addendum on upgrade to category 5)

The strongest winds associated with Andrew on 24 August likely occurred in the hurricane's northern eyewall. The relatively limited number of observations in that area greatly complicates the task of establishing Andrew's maximum sustained wind speed and peak gust at landfall in Florida. While a universally accepted value for Andrew's wind speed at landfall may prove elusive, there is considerable evidence supporting an estimate of about 125 kt for the maximum sustained wind speed, with gusts to at least 150 kt (Fig. 5). (Please see addendum on upgrade to category 5.)

The strongest reported sustained wind near the surface occurred at the Fowey Rocks weather station at 0800 UTC (Fig. 5). The station sits about 11 n mi east of the shoreline and, at that time, was within the northwest part of Andrew's eyewall. The 0800 UTC data included a two-minute wind of 123 kt with a gust to 147 kt at a platform height of about 130 ft. The U.S. National Data Buoy Center used a boundary-layer model to convert the sustained wind to a two-minute wind of 108 kt at 33 ft elevation. The peak one-minute wind during that two-minute period at Fowey Rocks might have been slightly higher than 108 kt.

It is unlikely that this point observation was so fortuitously situated that it represents a sampling of the absolute strongest wind. The Fowey Rocks log (not shown) indicates that the wind speed increased through 0800 UTC. Unfortunately, Fowey Rocks then ceased transmitting data, presumably because even stronger winds disabled the instrumentation. (A subsequent visual inspection indicated that the mast supporting the anemometer had become bent 90 degrees from vertical.) Radar reflectivity data suggests that the most intense portion of Andrew's eyewall had not reached Fowey Rocks by 0800 UTC and that the wind speed could have continued to increase there for another 15 to 30 minutes. A similar conclusion can be reached from the pressure analysis in Fig. 4 which indicates that the pressure at Fowey Rocks probably fell by about another 20 mb from the 0800 UTC mark of 968 mb.

Reconnaissance aircraft provided wind data at a flight level of about 10,000 ft. The maximum wind speed along 10 seconds of flight track (often used by the NHC to represent a one-minute wind speed at flight level) on the last pass prior to landfall was 162 kt, with a spot wind speed of 170 kt observed. The 162 kt wind occurred at 0810 UTC in the eyewall region about 10 n mi to the north of the center of the eye. Like the observation from Fowey Rocks, the aircraft provided a series of "point" observations (i.e., no lateral extent). Somewhat higher wind speeds probably occurred elsewhere in the northern eyewall, a little to the left and/or to the right of the flight track. A wind speed at 10,000 ft is usually reduced to obtain a surface wind estimate. Based on past operational procedures, the 162 kt flight-level wind is compatible with maximum sustained surface winds of 125 kt.

One of the most important wind speed reports came from Tamiami Airport, located about 9 n mi west of the shoreline. As mentioned earlier, routine weather observations ended at the airport before the full force of Andrew's (northern) eyewall winds arrived. However, the official weather observer there, Mr. Scott Morrison, remained on-station and continued to watch the wind speed dial. Mr. Morrison notes that around 0845 UTC (0445 EDT) the wind speed indicator "pegged" at a position a little beyond the dial's highest marking of 100 kt, at a point that he estimates corresponds to about 110 kt. (Subsequent tests of the wind speed dials observed at the airport indicate that the needles peg at about 105 kt and 108 kt, respectively). He recounts that the needle was essentially fixed at that spot for three to five minutes, and then fell back to 0 when the anemometer failed. Mr. Morrison's observations have been closely corroborated by two other people. He has also noted that the weather conditions deteriorated even further after that time and were at their worst about 30 minutes later. This information suggests that, in all likelihood, the maximum sustained wind speed at Tamiami Airport significantly exceeded 105 kt.

A number of the wind speeds reported by the public could not be substantiated and are therefore excluded from Fig. 5. The reliability of some of the others suffer from problems that include non-standard averaging periods and instrument exposures, and equipment failures prior to the arrival of the strongest winds.

The only measurement of a sustained wind in the southern eyewall came from an anemometer on the mast of an anchored sailboat (see Fig. 5). For at least 13 minutes the anemometer there showed 99 kt, which was the maximum that the readout could display. A small downward adjustment of the speed should probably be applied because the instrument was sitting 17 m above the surface rather than at the standard height of 10 m. On the other hand, the highest one-minute wind speed during that 13-minute period could have been quite a bit stronger than 99 kt. Again, there may have been stronger winds elsewhere in the southern eyewall. For a westward-moving hurricane the wind speed in the northern eyewall usually exceeds the wind speed in the southern eyewall by about twice the forward speed of the hurricane (Dunn and Miller 1964). In the case of Andrew, that difference is about 32 kt, and suggests a maximum sustained wind stronger than 130 kt.

Several indirect measures of the sustained wind speed are of interest. First, a standard empirical relationship between central pressure and wind speed (Kraft 1961) applied to 922 mb yields around 135 kt. Second, the Dvorak technique classification performed by the NHC Tropical Satellite Analysis and Forecast unit using a 0900 UTC satellite image gives 127 kt. Also, an analysis of the pressure pattern in Fig. 4 gives a maximum gradient wind of around 140 kt.

The strongest gust reported from near the surface occurred in the northern eyewall a little more than a mile from the shoreline at the home of Mr. Randy Fairbank. He observed a gust of 184 kt moments before portions of a windward wall failed, preventing further observation. The hurricane also destroyed the anemometer. To evaluate the accuracy of the instrument, three anemometers of the type used by Mr. Fairbank were tested in a wind tunnel at Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University. Although the turbulent nature of the hurricane winds could not be replicated, the results of the wind tunnel tests suggest that the gust Mr. Fairbank observed was less than 184 kt and probably near 154 kt. Of course, stronger gusts may have occurred there at a later time, or at another site. Damage at that location was significantly less than the damage to similar structures located about 2 miles south of this neighborhood, implying even stronger winds than observed at this location.

Strong winds also occurred outside of the eyewall, especially in association with convective bands (Fig. 6). A peak gust to 139 kt was observed at a home near the northern end of Dade County (Fig. 5) on an anemometer of the brand used by Mr. Fairbank. Applying the reduction suggested by the wind tunnel tests to 139 kt yields an estimate close to the 115 kt peak gust (a five-second average) registered on a National Ocean Survey anemometer located not far to the east, at the coast.

3. Storm surge

During the afternoon of 23 August, Andrew crossed over the north end of the island of Eleuthera in the Bahamas and generated significant storm surge flooding. Two high water marks were recorded and referenced to mean sea level. The first mark of 16 ft was recorded in a house in the town of Little Bogue. The second mark of 23 ft was recorded in a damaged house in the town of The Current several miles west of Lower Bogue. Since this structure was located near the shoreline it suggests that battering waves riding on top of the storm surge helped to create this very high water mark.

During the morning hour of 24 August, Andrew generated storm surge along shorelines of southern Florida (Fig. 7) (103K GIF). On the southeast Florida coast, peak storm surge arrived near the time of high astronomical tide. The height of the storm tide (the sum of the storm surge and astronomical tide, referenced to mean sea level) ranged from 4 to 6 ft in northern Biscayne bay increasing to a maximum value of 16.9 ft at the Burger King International Headquarters, located on the western shoreline in the center of the bay, and decreasing to 4 to 5 ft in southern Biscayne Bay. The observed storm tide values on the Florida southwest coast ranged from 4 to 5 ft near Flamingo to 6 to 7 ft near Goodland.

Storm tides in Louisiana were at least 8 ft (Table 2a) and caused flooding from Lake Borgne westward through Vermillion Bay.

4. Tornadoes

There have been no confirmed reports of tornadoes associated with Andrew over the Bahamas or Florida. Funnel sightings, some unconfirmed, were reported in the Florida counties of Glades, Collier and Highlands, where Andrew crossed in daylight. In Louisiana, one tornado occurred in the city of Laplace several hours prior to Andrew's landfall. That tornado killed 2 people and injured 32 others. Tornadoes in the Ascension, Iberville, Baton Rouge, Pointe Coupee, and Avoyelles parishes of Louisiana reportedly did not result in casualties. Numerous reports of funnel clouds were received by officials in Mississippi and tornadoes were suspected to have caused damage in several Mississippi counties. In Alabama, the occurrence of two damaging tornadoes has been confirmed over the mainland while another tornado may have hit Dauphin Island. As Andrew and its remnants moved northeastward over the eastern states, it continued to produce severe weather. For example, several damaging tornadoes in Georgia late on 27 August were attributed to Andrew.

5. Rainfall

Andrew dropped sufficient rain to cause local floods even though the hurricane was relatively small and generally moved rather fast. Rainfall totals in excess of seven inches were recorded in southeast Florida, Louisiana, and Mississippi (Table 2b). Rainfall amounts near five inches occurred in several neighboring states. Hammond, Louisiana reported the highest total, 11.92 inches.

c. Casualty and Damage Statistics

Table 3 lists a count of casualties and damages associated with Andrew. The number of deaths directly attributed to Andrew is 26. The additional indirect loss of life brought the death toll to 65 (see footnote 2). A combination of good hurricane preparedness and evacuation programs likely helped minimize the loss of life. Nevertheless, the fact that no lives were lost in the United States due to storm surge is viewed as a fortunate aberration.

Table 3a reveals that more than one-half of the fatalities were indirect. Many of the indirect deaths occurred during the "recovery phase" following Andrew's passage.

Damage is estimated at $25 billion. Andrew's impact on southern Dade County, Florida was extreme from the Kendall district southward through Homestead and Florida City, to near Key Largo (Table 3b). Andrew reportedly destroyed 25,524 homes and damaged 101,241 others. The Dade County Grand Jury reported that ninety percent of all mobile homes in south Dade County were totally destroyed. In Homestead, more than 99% (1167 of 1176) of all mobile homes were completely destroyed. The Miami Herald reported $0.5 billion in losses to boats in southeast Florida.

The most devasted areas correspond closely in location to the regions overspread by Andrew's eyewall and its accompanying core of destructive winds and, near the coastline, decimating storm surges. Flight-level data about an hour prior to landfall places the radius of maximum wind at 11 n mi (in the northern eyewall at 10,000 ft altitude). The radius of maximum wind at the surface was likely a little less than 11 n mi. (Figure 6) displays a radar reflectivity pattern (similar to rainfall intensity) about 30 minutes prior to landfall, superimposed on a map of southern Florida, from which it can be seen that the average diameter of the "radar" eye was about 11 n mi at landfall.)

The damage to Louisiana is estimated at $1 billion.

Damage in the Bahamas has been estimated at $0.25 billion.

Andrew whipped up powerful seas which extensively damaged many offshore structures, including the artificial reef system of southeast Florida. For example, the Belzona Barge is a 215 ft, 350-ton barge that, prior to Andrew, was sitting in 68 ft of water on the ocean floor. One thousand tons of concrete from the old Card Sound bridge lay on the deck. The hurricane moved the barge 700 ft to the west (50-100 tons of concrete remain on deck) and removed several large sections of steel plate sidings.

Damage in the Gulf of Mexico is preliminarily estimated at $0.5 billion. Ocean Oil reported the following in the Gulf of Mexico: 13 toppled platforms, five leaning platforms, 21 toppled satellites, 23 leaning satellites, 104 incidents of structural damage, seven incidents of pollution, two fires, and five drilling wells blown off location.

Hurricanes are notoriously capricious. Andrew was a compact system. A little larger system, or one making landfall just a few nautical miles further to the north, would have been catastrophic for heavily populated, highly commercialized and no less vulnerable areas to the north. That area includes downtown Miami, Miami Beach, Key Biscayne and Fort Lauderdale. Andrew also left the highly vulnerable New Orleans region relatively unscathed.

d. Forecast and Warning Critique

Track forecast errors by the NHC and by the suite of track prediction models are given in Table 4. On average, the NHC errors were about 30% smaller than the current 10-year average. The most significant changes in Andrew's track and intensity (see Fig. 1, Table 1) were generally well anticipated (noted in NHC's Tropical Cyclone Discussions) and the forecast tracks generally lie close to the best track. However, the rate of Andrew's westward acceleration over the southwestern Atlantic was greater than initially forecast. In addition, the NHC forecast a rate of strengthening that was less than what occurred during Andrew's period of rapid deepening.

Several of the dynamic track models had stellar performances during this hurricane. The Aviation Model and a tracking routine that follows a simulated hurricane vortex (AVNO) performed especially well. However, this was the first storm for which AVNO output was available to NHC forecasters. Hence, its operational reliability was not established. The GFDL and QLM models also had small errors. It should be pointed out, however, that the NHC works on a six-hourly forecast cycle and that the models mentioned above are run just once per 12 hours. Moreover, the output from these models becomes available to forecasters no earlier than the following six-hour forecast cycle.

Historically, the NHC90 statistical-dynamical model has been the most accurate of NHC's track guidance models. The NHC90 errors were rather large during Andrew. Because the NHC90 uses output from the Aviation Model it is possible that the recent changes in the latter model may be responsible for the NHC90's degraded performance.

Table 5 lists a chronology of watches and warnings issued by the National Hurricane Center and the Government of the Bahamas. The associated lead times (based on landfall of the eye) are given in Table 6.

Massive evacuations were ordered in Florida and Louisiana as the likelihood of Andrew making landfall in those regions increased (Table 7). About 55,000 people left the Florida Keys. Evacuations were ordered for 517,000 people in Dade County, 300,000 in Broward County, 315,000 in Palm Beach County and 15,000 in St. Lucie County. For counties further west in Florida, evacuation totals exceeding one thousand people are Collier (25,000), Glades (4,000) and Lee (2,500).

It is estimated that 1,250,000 people evacuated from parishes in southeastern and south-central Louisiana.

About 250,000 people evacuated from Orange and Jefferson Counties in Texas.

The winds in Hurricane Andrew wreaked tremendous structural damage, particularly in southern Dade County. Notwithstanding, the loss of life in Hurricane Andrew, while very unfortunate, was far less than has previously occurred in hurricanes of comparable strength. Historical data suggests that storm surge is the greatest threat to life. Some lives were likely saved by the evacuation along the coastline of southeast Florida. The relatively small loss of life there serves as testimony to the success and importance of coordinated programs of hurricane preparedness.


Dunn, G. E. and B. I. Miller, 1964: Atlantic Hurricanes.
     Louisiana State University Press, Baton Rouge, LA. 326 pp.

Dvorak,  V.  F., 1984: Tropical  cyclone  intensity  analysis using 
     satellite  data.   NOAA  Technical  Report NESDIS 11, National 
     Oceanic  and  Atmospheric  Administration, U. S. Department of 
     Commerce, Washington, DC, 47 pp.

Hebert, P. J., J. D. Jarrell, and M. Mayfield, 1992: The deadliest, 
     costliest, and most intense  hurricane  of this century (and 
     other frequently requested facts).  NOAA Technical Memorandum 
     NWS NHC-31, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 
     U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, DC, 40 pp.

Holliday,  C.  R.,  and   A.  H.  Thompson,  1979:   Climatological 
     characteristics  of  rapidly  intensifying typhoons. Mon. Wea. 
     Rev., 107, 1022-1034.

Kraft, R. H., 1961:  The hurricane's  central  pressure and highest 
     wind. Mar. Wea. Log., 5, 157.


Much of the data in this summary was provided by NWS WSFO/WSO reports from MIA, EYW, MLB, PBI, TBW, SIL, BTR, LCH, JAN, BHM, MOB, MEM, BPT and ATL. Sam Houston of the AOML Hurricane Research Division collected additional observations. Jerry Kranz of the NOAA Aircraft Operations Center performed the barometer calibrations. Martin Nelson provided a summary on the damages to artificial reefs adjacent to the southeast Florida coast. Joan David, Stan Goldenberg and Mike Black developed several of the figures. Sandra Potter helped prepare the manuscript.

          [1] When indirect and continuing costs are considered,
the total could ultimately rise to $40 billion, according to a
personal  communication  from William E. Bailey, Co-Director,
Hurricane Insurance Information Center. Mr. Bailey indicates that
Floridians filed more than 725,000 insurance claims related to

          [2] Based on data from the Dade County Medical Examiner. 
The Miami Herald reported on 31 January 1993 that it could relate
at least 43 additional (indirect) deaths in Dade County to Hurricane
Table 1. Preliminary best track, Hurricane Andrew, 16-28 August, 1992.
Position Pressure
Wind Speed
Lat. (°N)Lon. (°W)
16/180010.835.5101025 Tropical Depression
17/000011.237.4100930" "
060011.739.6100830" "
120012.342.0100635 Tropical Storm
180013.144.2100335" "
18/000013.646.2100240" "
060014.148.0100145" "
120014.649.9100045" "
180015.451.8100045" "
19/000016.353.5100145" "
060017.255.3100245" "
120018.056.9100545" "
180018.858.3100745" "
20/000019.859.3101140" "
060020.760.0101340" "
120021.760.7101540" "
180022.561.5101440" "
21/000023.262.4101445" "
060023.963.3101045" "
120024.464.2100750" "
180024.864.9100450" "
22/000025.365.9100055" "
060025.667.099460" "
180030.991.699150Tropical Storm
27/000031.591.199535" "
060032.190.599730 Tropical Depression
120032.889.699830" "
180033.688.499925" "
28/000034.486.7100020" "
060035.484.0100020" "
1200     Merging with
frontal system
23/180025.475.8922135 Minimum Pressure
24/090525.580.3922125" "
northern Eleuthera Island, Bahamas
southern Berry Islands, Bahamas
Homestead Air Force Base, Florida
Point Chevreuil, Louisiana (20 n mi west-southwest of Morgan City)


Table 2a. Hurricane Andrew selected surface observations. Nonstandard wind speed averaging periods and anemometer heights are indicated where known.
 Minimum sea-level
Maximum surface wind speed
(storm total)
Harbour Island935.0c23/2100  120c,d23/shortly after 2100    
Nassau999.0c24/000080 10024/0025   
The Current      23  
Lower Bogue
(1 n mi inland)
Florida East Coast and Keys
Tamiami (TMB)988.0c,d 110      
Miami WSFO/NHC982.0c,d24/0900 100c-e142c-e24/0850    
Joe Bay
(25.2°N 80.5°W)
   82j,k  24/0938   
NOAA/AOML984.0   87c,d    
Miami I. Arpt. (MIA)992.624/090075f 10024/0950  2.04
Miami Beach DARDC  65c 92c,d24/0816   
(25.775°N 80.284°W)
   63o,p,c  24/0901   
Haulover NOS NGWLMS1004.0 58c 11524/0900   
Goodyear Blimp Base
(25.797°N 80.291°W)
   56o,p,c 81c24/0822   
(25.828°N 80.294°W)
   53o,p,c  24/0845   
(25.9°N 81.3°W)
   47j,l,c,e 24/1232    
(25.801°N 80.312°W)
   46o,p,c  24/0826,
(26.2°N 80.8°W)
   46m,n  24/1122   
Manatee Bay
(25.2°N 80.4°W)
   45j,k,c,e 24/1038    
(25.795°N 80.248°W)
   40o,p,c  24/0845,
Monroe EOC
(24.8°N 80.9°W)
  31 40c24/1028   
Fort Lauderdale (FLL)    53c,d    
Palm Beach (PBI)1010.824/0259,
43 5124/1033   
Palm Beach ASOS  42  24/1036   
Key West WSO (EYW)1010.124/140025 3724/1614  0.33
Miles City
(26.2°N 81.2°W)
   24j,l,c,e  24/1331   
Patrick AFB (COF)1016.224/095522 3124/0731   
(26.6°N 80.1°W)
  22m,n,c,e  24/0929   
(24.7°N 81.1°W)
  18o,c 2624/1155   
(26.6°N 80.4°W)
  16m,n  24/1242   
Melbourne (MLB)1016.324/095015 2124/1151   
Orlando (MCO)1016.924/0950  3024/1850   
NASA Shuttle (X68)1016.924/085511 2324/1755   
Titusville (TIX)1017.924/10538 1424/1149  0.80c
East Perrine       16.9 (see Fig. 4) 
Florida West Coast
Collier County (EOC)    87e24/   
Captiva Fire Station    63    
Marco Island
(26.0°N 81.7°W)
   34c,d,o 24/1220    
Fort Myers (RSW)1010.224/1347,
30 4524/1446,
Cape Coral         
Glades County (EOC)    4424/between 1100 and 1200    
Clrwtr./St. P. Arpt.   304024/1625   
Goodland      6.0g  
Everglades City      6.0g  
Fort Myers Beach      2.0  
Venice      1.8  
Anna Marie Island      1.5  
Homosassa      1.5  
Gulf Harbors      1.5  
Indian Rocks Beach      1.0  
Morgan City (P42)  80e 94e    
Baton Rouge (BTR)996.526/142742 6126/1452  5.70
New Orleans (MSY)1006.626/080539 5726/0950  5.70
Bayou Bienvenue        6.28
Salt Point AMOS (P92)  40 7226/0728   
Lafayette (LFT)990.526/125046 6226/1057  5.51
Lake Charles (LCH)1008.5 21 3426/2152  0.05
Berwick Fire Stn.  83e 104e    
Jeanerette975.0 71 78c    
Jeanerette  67 7526/0845   
Near Brusly990.226/133769 90c26/1310  5.05
Lafayette Courthouse    90e    
Mooring 17
(29.2°N 92.0°W)
Cocodrie       8.0 
Burns Point
(St. Mary Parish)
Bayou Dupre       6.5 
Bayou Bienvenue       6.3 
NWS HANDAR east N. Orleans       5.6 
Port Fourchon       5.0h 
N end of causeway       4.9 
Industrial canal       4.4 
Marina       4.3 
Rigolets       4.2 
Grand Isle       3.5h 
Huntsville (HSV)1000.327/225022 3627/1742  0.92
Birmingham (BHM)1001.727/221519 3527/1640  1.77
Montgomery (MGM)1008.827/204523 3127/2307  1.55
Mobile (MOB)1010.127/205126 3525/1844  0.64
Mobile State Docks      2.63.5 
Dauphin Island       6.0 
Atlanta (ATL)1005.428/0400  3927/2039   
Jackson (JAN)998.626/075028 4927/0219  4.79
Tupelo (TUP)  24 3627/2000  1.86
Meridian (MEI)1004.4 25 4827/0945  5.29
State Port (Gulfport)    3927/1951   
Bay St. Louis       4.5f 
Port Arthur (BPT)1011.526/100022 3026/1953   
Sabine Pass      1.11.3 
Ship reports
(29.5°N 80.6°W)
  60  25/1200   
(19.4°N 56.6°W)
1013.519/150035  19/1500   
(28.1°N 79.2°W)
1015.524/060035  24/0600   
Gulf of Mexico platformsc,e
SS 198G
(28.2°N 92.0°W)
  78 10026/0330   
EC 83H
(28.2°N 92.0°W)
  46 4926/0330   
EC 42B
(29.5°N 92.8°W)
  38 8826/0430   
SM 136B
(28.2°N 92.0°W)
  38 4425/2230   

a Time of 1-minute wind speed unless only gust is given.

b Storm surge is water height above normal tide level. Storm tide is water height relative to National Geodetic Vertical Datum (NGVD) which is defined as mean sea level in 1929.

c A more extreme value may have occurred.

d Equipment became inoperable after this measurement.

e Non-standard elevation.

f Estimated.

g Above Mean Low Water.

h Above Mean Water Level.

i Subsequent laboratory tests at the NHC indicate the the needles on the two wind dials observed at Tamiami Airport "peg" at about 105 and 108 kt, respectively.

j Department of Interior.

k 15-minute average.

l 10-minute average.

m South Florida Management District.

n 5-minute average.

o Federal Aviation Administration.

p Low-level wind shear system at several MIA locations, 30-second average, continuous data until 24/0945; no data for MIA5.

q Anemometer height of 7.1 meters.

Table 2b. Selected rainfall totals associated with Hurricane Andrew, August 1992. * indicates estimate.
LocationTotal Rain (in)LocationTotal Rain (in)
S-124 (Broward County)7.79 Everglades Park (Collier County)* 4.50
S-21A (Dade County)7.41S-18C (Dade County)4.48
S-20G (Dade County)5.19S-20F (Dade County)4.12
S-37A (Broward County)5.14Marco Island * 3.50
S-39 (Broward/Palm Beach Counties)5.12 S-308 (Lake Okeechobee area)3.47
S-80 (Martin-St. Lucie)4.94Cudjoe Key2.02
Hammond11.92Butte La Rose7.90
Amite10.36Mt. Herman7.50
Morgan City9.31Franklin7.03
Manchac8.75WSFO Slidell5.06
Jeanerette7.96Jena 4WSW4.42
Aliceville4.40WRTA1 Wright2.89
Tuscaloosa3.60CBTA1 Colbert2.75
MRGA1 Morgan 3.46AKDA1 Lexington2.66
MRZA1 Mount Roszell3.21OAKA1 Oakland2.62
CDCA1 Red Bay Creek2.90 
Hurst5.24SCHG1 Suches G. Creek3.32
Mountain City4.60TUSG1 Titus3.13
Nacoochee Pwr3.83BRDG1 Blue Ridge Dam2.65
Helen3.40EPWG1 Epworth H. Store2.64
Pelahatchie (gage)8.20McComb5.93
Yazoo City7.63Ofahoma5.82
Crystal Springs7.24Bay St. Louis5.72
Pelahatchie (co-op)7.07White Oak5.65
Union Church7.04Liberty5.59
Brookhaven7.02Goshen Springs5.52
Mize6.71Port Gibson5.51
Good Hope6.14Philadelphia5.06
North Carolina:
HDSN7 Highlands4.68RMNN7 Rosman2.62
WLGN7 F-Wallace Gap2.73 
ELKT1 Elkton3.80LNVT1 Lynnville2.97
WNBT1 Waynesboro3.64PICT1 Pickwick Dam2.95
GEOT1 Georgetown3.43CLET1 Cleveland2.91
IRCT1 Iron City-S.C.3.33CLBT1 Columbia2.80
BGLT1 Big Lick3.25DYNT1 Dime2.74
CBOT1 Crab Orchard3.07LEWT1 Lewisburg2.58
CLLT1 Collinwood3.07CSV Crossville Arpt.2.57
PSKT1 Pulaski3.03PKVT1 Pikeville2.50


Table 2c. Hurricane Andrew selected NDBC observations, August 1992.
Minimum sea-level
Maximum wind speed a
Fowey Rocks C-MAN FWYF124/080025.6N 80.1W967.5 b,c 24/0800123 b,c147 b,c
Bullwinkle Platform BUSL125/222527.9N 90.9W998.5 25/23005263 b
Molasses Reef C-MAN MLRF124/100025.0N 80.4W998.5 24/09004859
Eastern Gulf Buoy 4200325/025025.9N 85.9W997.4 25/04004563
Grand Isle C-MAN GDIL125/220029.2N 90.0W1005.2 25/23004873
Southwest Pass C-MAN BURL125/210028.9N 89.4W1006.1 25/22005680
Sombrero Key C-MAN SMKF124/113024.6N 81.2W1007.7 24/11003442
Lena Platform C-MAN LNEL1 28.2N 89.1W1007.7 25/1600  
Eleuthera Buoy 4101624/004024.6N 76.5W1007.9 23/20402935 b
Sand Key C-MAN SANF124/160024.5N 81.9W1010.2 24/1100,14003043 b
Central Gulf Buoy 4200125/165025.9N 89.7W1010.8 25/09502429
Settlement Point C-MAN SPGF124/050026.7N 79.0W1012.7 24/06003847
Buoy 4200725/185030.1N 88.8W1013.5 25/22503046
Dauphin Island C-MAN DPIA125/210030.2N 88.1W1016.1 26/00003246

a NOAA buoys report hourly an 8-min average wind. C-MAN station reports are 2-min average winds at the top of the hour and 10-min averages at the other times. Contact NDBC for additional details.

b A more extreme value may have occurred.

c Equipment became inoperable shortly after observation.

Table 3a. Deaths and damages incurred in association with Hurricane Andrew. Based, in part, on reports from the Dade County Medical Examiner and Louisiana Office of Public Health for their respective jurisdictions.
($ Billion)
Dade County152525
Broward County030.1
Monroe County010.131
Collier County000.03
St. John the Baptist Parish20  
Lafayette Parish020.017
Vermillion Parish000.001
Iberville Parish01 
Terrebonne Parish03 
Orleans Parish01 
Plaquemines Parish01 
Iberia Parish01 
Georgia  0.001

Note: The Miami Herald reported on 31 January 1993 that it could relate at least 43 additional (indirect) deaths in Dade County to Hurricane Andrew.


Table 3b. Damages in southeast Florida associated with Hurricane Andrew.
ItemLoss ($ Billion)Notes
1. Common insured private property15.0 From American Insurance Services Group, Inc., property February 1993 based on major insurers. Includes homes, mobile homes, commercial and industrial properties and their contents; boats; autos; farm equipment and structures; "time-element" losses of living expenses and "business interruption."
2. Uninsured homes0.35 From The Miami Herald (MH), 16 February 1993 for cost to rebuild. May not include contents.
3. Government property: 
  a. Federal Government:
i. Homestead AFB0.5From CARCAH
ii. Other? 
  b. State Governments?  
  c. County Governments0.287 Uninsured loss to Metro-Dade reported by Audit and Management Services Department on 25 January 1993.
  d. City Governments?  
  e. Schools0.358 MH, 10 September 1992 for K-12, FIU, Dade County CC and UM. FEMA estimate of $0.06 billion for school repair on 27 February 1993.
4. Agriculture1.0 MH, 10 September 1992. Part of loss covered in #1. Excludes loss of row crops.
5. Environment: 
  a. Clean-up2.0 Amount requested of Federal Government by State of Florida. FEMA estimate of $0.375 billion on 27 February 1993.
  b. Parks, Marinas, Beaches and Reefs 0.124MH, 10 September 1992.
  c. Landscaping?  
6. Aircraft0.02 From survey of aircraft underwriters.
7. Flood Claims0.096 From FEMA Flood Insurance Administration.
8. Uniformed and Overtime Assistance (e.g., military, police, National Guard and their associated expenses)-Not included
9. Deductibles? 
10. Other? 


Table 4. Hurricane Andrew average track forecast errors (nautical miles), non-homogeneous sample.
Forecast period (hours) Forecast period (hours)
Model1224364872 Model1224364872
(no. of cases)
3365106141 243 CLIPER3581148233437
(37)(35)(33)(31)(27) (37)(35)(33)(31)(27)
AVNO60758997132 BAMD4593141182268
(15)(15)(14)(13)(11) (37)(35)(33)(31)(27)
BAMM4081121151229 BAMS3977114135197
(37)(35)(33)(31)(27) (37)(35)(33)(31)(27)
QLM396493130192 NHC903577135197330
(19)(18)(17)(16)(14) (37)(35)(33)(31)(27)
VBAR326093138287 GFDL367193117209
(23)(23)(23)(23)(23) (9)(9)(9)(9)(7)


Table 5.
Watch and warning summary, Hurricane Andrew.
22/1500Hurricane Watch Northwest Bahamas from Andros and Eleuthera Islands northward through Grand Bahama and Great Abaco
22/2100Hurricane Warning Northwest Bahamas from Andros and Eleuthera Islands northward through Grand Bahama and Great Abaco
Hurricane Watch Florida east coast from Titusville southward through the Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas
23/0600Hurricane Warning Central Bahamas including Cat Island, Great Exuma, San Salvador, and Long Island
23/1200Hurricane Warning Florida east coast from Vero Beach southward through the Florida Keys to the Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay
Tropical Storm Warning Florida east coast north of Vero Beach to Titusville
Hurricane Watch Florida west coast south of Bayport including the greater Tampa area to north of Flamingo
23/1800Hurricane Warning Florida west coast south of Venice and Lake Okeechobee
Tropical Storm Warning Florida west coast north of Venice to Bayport
24/0900Hurricane Warning discontinued Bahamas except for Bimini and Grand Bahama
24/1300 Hurricane Warning discontinued Remainder of the Bahamas
Hurricane Warning discontinued Florida except for Lake Okeechobee and the west coast south of Venice to Flamingo
Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch discontinued Florida east coast from Vero Beach to Titusville and Florida west coast from Venice to Bayport
Hurricane Watch Northern Gulf coast from Mobile, Alabama to Sabine Pass, Texas
24/1800Hurricane Warning discontinued Remainder of Florida
24/2100Hurricane Warning Northern Gulf coast from Pascagoula, Mississippi through Vermillion Bay, Louisiana
25/0900Hurricane Warning West of Vermillion Bay, Louisiana to Port Arthur, Texas
Hurricane Watch West of Port Arthur through High Island, Texas
25/1500Hurricane Warning West of Port Arthur through the Bolivar Peninsula Texas
Hurricane Watch West of the Bolivar Peninsula to Freeport, Texas
26/0700 Hurricane Warning discontinued East of Grand Isle, Louisiana
Hurricane Watch discontinued West of the Bolivar Peninsula
26/1100Hurricane Warning discontinued West of Port Arthur, Texas
26/1300Hurricane Warning discontinued West of Cameron, Louisiana
26/1700Hurricane Warning discontinued Remainder of Gulf coast


Table 6. Watch and warning lead times for landfall sites during Hurricane Andrew. Lead time refers to time lapsed from advisory to landfall.
LocationTypeLead Time (Hours)
Northwest BahamasHurricane Watch 30
Hurricane Warning24
Southeast FloridaHurricane Watch 36
Hurricane Warning21
South-central LouisianaHurricane Watch 43
Hurricane Warning24

Table 7. Chances of the center of Hurricane Andrew passing within 65 miles of listed locations by date and time (EDT) indicated; probabilities in percent with X for less than 2 percent.
  ADVISORY ISSUE TIME:     16/11PM    17/5AM     17/11AM    17/5PM      17/11PM
  PROBABILITY END TIME:    19/8PM     20/2AM     20/8AM     20/2PM      20/8PM
  SVMG 110N 640W              4          5          7          6           X
  TTPP 106N 614W              7          8          9          6           X
  TTPT 112N 608W              8         10         11          8           X
  TGPY 120N 618W              8         10         11          9           X
  TBPB 131N 595W             11         14         15         14           4
  TVSV 131N 612W              9         11         14         12           3
  TLPL 138N 610W             10         12         15         14           5
  TFFF 146N 610W             10         12         15         15           8
  TDPR 153N 614W             10         12         15         15          10
  TFFR 163N 615W             10         12         16         16          13
  TAPA 171N 618W              9         11         15         16          15
  TKPK 173N 627W              8         10         14         15          14
  TNCM 181N 631W              8          9         14         14          14
  TISX 177N 648W              6          7         12         12           9
  TIST 183N 650W              6          7         11         12          10
  TJPS 180N 666W              4          5          9         10           6
  TJSJ 184N 661W              4          5         10         11           8
  MDSD 185N 697W              X          X          5          5           X
  MDCB 176N 714W              X          X          2          3           X
  MTPP 186N 724W              X          X          2          2           X
  TNCC 122N 690W              X          X          3          2           X
  MDPP 198N 707W              X          X          3          4           X
  MBJT 215N 712W              X          X          2          3           X
  MYMM 224N 730W              X          X          X          2           X
  ST CROIX VI                 6          7         12         12           9
  ST THOMAS VI                6          7         11         12          10
  SAN JUAN PR                 4          5         10         11           8
  PONCE PR                    4          5          9         10           6
  ADVISORY ISSUE TIME:     18/5AM     18/11AM    18/5PM     18/11PM     19/5AM
  PROBABILITY END TIME:    21/2AM     21/8AM     21/2PM     21/8PM      22/2AM
  TBPB 131N 595W              4          3          X          X           X
  TVSV 131N 612W              3          3          X          X           X
  TLPL 138N 610W              6          6          2          X           X
  TFFF 146N 610W              9          9          4          2           2
  TDPR 153N 614W             11         13          7          4           3

  TFFR 163N 615W             15         18         13          8           6
  TAPA 171N 618W             18         21         17         14          10
  TKPK 173N 627W             16         20         17         14          12
  TNCM 181N 631W             17         21         19         19          17
  TISX 177N 648W             12         16         14         14          12
  TIST 183N 650W             13         17         16         16          15
  TJPS 180N 666W              8         13         12         12          11
  TJSJ 184N 661W             10         15         14         14          14
  MDSD 185N 697W              3          6          7          8           8
  MDCB 176N 714W              X          2          3          3           3
  MTPP 186N 724W              X          2          3          3           3
  MDPP 198N 707W              3          6          8          8           9
  MBJT 215N 712W              3          7          8          9          11
  MYMM 224N 730W              X          4          5          6           8
  MYSM 241N 745W              X          2          3          4           6
  MYEG 235N 758W              X          X          2          2           3
  MYNN 251N 775W              X          X          X          X           2
  ST CROIX VI                12         16         14         14          12
  ST THOMAS VI               13         17         16         16          15
  SAN JUAN PR                10         15         14         14          14
  PONCE PR                    8         13         12         12          11
  ADVISORY ISSUE TIME:     19/11AM    19/5PM     19/11PM    20/5AM      20/11AM
  PROBABILITY END TIME:    22/8AM     22/2PM     22/8PM     23/2AM      23/8AM
  TAPA 171N 618W              2          X          X          X           X
  TKPK 173N 627W              4          X          X          X           X
  TNCM 181N 631W              7          3          X          X           X
  TISX 177N 648W              6          3          2          2           2
  TIST 183N 650W              9          5          3          3           3
  TJPS 180N 666W              7          5          4          4           4
  TJSJ 184N 661W              9          6          4          4           4
  MDSD 185N 697W              6          7          6          6           6
  MDCB 176N 714W              3          4          3          3           4
  MTPP 186N 724W              3          6          4          4           5
  MDPP 198N 707W              8         11          9          9           9
  MBJT 215N 712W             11         16         13         13          12
  MYMM 224N 730W              8         14         11         12          11
  MYSM 241N 745W              6         14          9         10          10
  MYEG 235N 758W              3         10          6          6           7
  MYNN 251N 775W              X          8          3          4           5
  MUGM 200N 751W              X          6          3          3           4
  MUCM 214N 779W              X          3          X          X           2
  MYAK 241N 776W              X          7          3          3           5
  MTCA 183N 738W              X          4          3          3           3
  MYGF 266N 787W              X          6          2          2           4
  ST CROIX VI                 6          3          2          2           2
  ST THOMAS VI                9          5          3          3           3
  SAN JUAN PR                 9          6          4          4           4
  PONCE PR                    7          5          4          4           4

  MARATHON FL                 X          2          X          X           X
  MIAMI FL                    X          3          X          X           2
  W PALM BEACH FL             X          4          X          X           2
  FT PIERCE FL                X          3          X          X           2
  COCOA BEACH FL              X          3          X          X           X
  DAYTONA BEACH FL            X          2          X          X           X
  MARCO ISLAND FL             X          2          X          X           X
  BERMUDA                     X          X          3          X           3
  ADVISORY ISSUE TIME:     20/5PM     20/11PM    21/5AM     21/11AM     21/5PM
  PROBABILITY END TIME:    23/2PM     23/8PM     24/2AM     24/8AM      24/2PM
  MDSD 185N 697W              4          X          X          X           X
  MDCB 176N 714W              2          X          X          X           X
  MTPP 186N 724W              4          X          2          2           2
  MDPP 198N 707W              7          3          3          3           2
  MBJT 215N 712W             12          6          8          6           6
  MYMM 224N 730W             13          7          9          8           8
  MYSM 241N 745W             13          8         12         11          12
  MYEG 235N 758W             10          5          8          9          10
  MYNN 251N 775W              8          3          7          9          10
  MUGM 200N 751W              5          X          3          4           3
  MUCM 214N 779W              4          X          2          5           5
  MYAK 241N 776W              7          2          6          8           9
  MTCA 183N 738W              3          X          2          2           X
  MYGF 266N 787W              6          2          6          9           9
  MUHA 230N 824W              X          X          X          3           3
  MKJS 185N 779W              X          X          X          2           2
  MWCG 193N 814W              X          X          X          2           X
  MUCF 221N 805W              X          X          X          4           4
  MUSN 216N 826W              X          X          X          2           2
  MARATHON FL                 2          X          X          5           6
  MIAMI FL                    3          X          2          7           7
  W PALM BEACH FL             4          X          3          7           8
  FT PIERCE FL                3          X          3          7           8
  COCOA BEACH FL              3          X          3          6           7
  DAYTONA BEACH FL            2          X          2          6           6
  MARCO ISLAND FL             2          X          X          5           6
  BERMUDA                     2          6          3          2           2
  MYRTLE BEACH SC             2          X          3          4           4
  WILMINGTON NC               2          2          4          3           4
  MOREHEAD CITY NC            3          3          5          3           3
  CAPE HATTERAS NC            2          3          5          3           3
  CHARLESTON SC               2          X          3          4           4
  NORFOLK VA                  X          X          3          2           2
  OCEAN CITY MD               X          X          2          X           X
  SAVANNAH GA                 X          X          2          4           4
  KEY WEST FL                 X          X          X          5           5
  JACKSONVILLE FL             X          X          X          5           5
  FT MYERS FL                 X          X          X          5           6
  VENICE FL                   X          X          X          5           5
  TAMPA FL                    X          X          X          5           5

  CEDAR KEY FL                X          X          X          4           4
  ST MARKS FL                 X          X          X          3           3
  APALACHICOLA FL             X          X          X          X           3
  PANAMA CITY FL              X          X          X          X           2
  GULF 29N 85W                X          X          X          X           3
  GULF 29N 87W                X          X          X          X           2
  ADVISORY ISSUE TIME:     21/11PM    22/5AM     22/11AM    22/5PM      22/11PM
  PROBABILITY END TIME:    24/8PM     25/2AM     25/8AM     25/2PM      25/8PM
  MBJT 215N 712W              3          2          X          X           X
  MYMM 224N 730W              6          6          5          X           X
  MYSM 241N 745W             11         12         16         19          21
  MYEG 235N 758W              9         10         12         15          11
  MYNN 251N 775W             11         13         17         27          35
  MUGM 200N 751W              3          X          X          X           X
  MUCM 214N 779W              4          5          6          7           2
  MYAK 241N 776W              9         11         14         22          27
  MYGF 266N 787W             11         13         17         24          24
  MUHA 230N 824W              4          5          8         14          16
  MWCG 193N 814W              X          X          X          4           X
  MUCF 221N 805W              4          5          8         12          10
  MUSN 216N 826W              2          3          6         10           9
  MUAN 219N 850W              2          3          5          9          11
  MMCZ 205N 869W              X          X          3          5           5
  MARATHON FL                 6          8         12         19          23
  MIAMI FL                    8         10         14         21          23
  W PALM BEACH FL             9         11         15         20          20
  FT PIERCE FL                9         11         15         18          16
  COCOA BEACH FL              9         11         14         16          13
  DAYTONA BEACH FL            8         10         12         13          10
  MARCO ISLAND FL             7          9         13         19          21
  BERMUDA                     2          X          X          X           X
  MYRTLE BEACH SC             6          6          5          X           X
  WILMINGTON NC               5          5          4          X           X
  MOREHEAD CITY NC            5          5          3          X           X
  CAPE HATTERAS NC            4          4          2          X           X
  CHARLESTON SC               6          7          6          3           2
  NORFOLK VA                  2          2          X          X           X
  SAVANNAH GA                 6          7          7          5           4
  KEY WEST FL                 5          7         11         18          21
  JACKSONVILLE FL             7          8          9          9           7
  FT MYERS FL                 7          9         13         18          19
  VENICE FL                   6          8         12         17          17
  TAMPA FL                    7          9         11         15          14
  CEDAR KEY FL                6          8         10         13          11
  ST MARKS FL                 4          6          8         10           9
  APALACHICOLA FL             4          5          7         11          10
  PANAMA CITY FL              3          5          6         10           9
  GULF 29N 85W                4          6          8         12          11

  GULF 29N 87W                2          4          6         11          11
  PENSACOLA FL                2          3          5          9           8
  MOBILE AL                   2          X          4          8           7
  MMMD 210N 897W              X          X          2          3           5
  GULFPORT MS                 X          X          3          8           7
  BURAS LA                    X          X          3          8           9
  NEW ORLEANS LA              X          X          3          7           7
  NEW IBERIA LA               X          X          2          5           6
  GULF 28N 89W                X          X          4         10          11
  GULF 28N 91W                X          X          2          7           9
  FREEPORT TX                 X          X          X          2           4
  PORT O CONNOR TX            X          X          X          2           3
  PORT ARTHUR TX              X          X          X          3           4
  GALVESTON TX                X          X          X          3           4
  GULF 28N 93W                X          X          X          5           7
  GULF 28N 95W                X          X          X          3           5
  GULF 27N 96W                X          X          X          2           4
  BROWNSVILLE TX              X          X          X          X           3
  CORPUS CHRISTI TX           X          X          X          X           3
  GULF 25N 96W                X          X          X          X           4
  ADVISORY ISSUE TIME:     23/5AM                23/11AM                23/5PM
  PROBABILITY END TIME:    26/2AM                26/8AM                 26/2PM
  MYSM 241N 745W             26                    13                      X
  MYEG 235N 758W             12                     2                      X
  MYNN 251N 775W             51                    68                     99
  MYAK 241N 776W             34                    34                     17
  MYGF 266N 787W             36                    43                     61
  MUHA 230N 824W             18                    15                     10
  MUCF 221N 805W             10                     5                      X
  MUSN 216N 826W              9                     5                      X
  MUAN 219N 850W             11                     9                      6
  MMCZ 205N 869W              5                     4                      X
  MARATHON FL                30                    32                     37
  MIAMI FL                   34                    40                     56
  W PALM BEACH FL            30                    33                     47
  FT PIERCE FL               23                    23                     28
  COCOA BEACH FL             17                    16                     16
  DAYTONA BEACH FL           11                    10                      9
  MARCO ISLAND FL            28                    31                     42
  CHARLESTON SC               X                     X                      X
  SAVANNAH GA                 3                     2                      X
  KEY WEST FL                27                    28                     31
  JACKSONVILLE FL             7                     6                      X
  FT MYERS FL                25                    27                     37
  VENICE FL                  21                    22                     29
  TAMPA FL                   17                    17                     20
  CEDAR KEY FL               13                    12                     13

  ST MARKS FL                10                    10                      9
  APALACHICOLA FL            12                    12                     12
  PANAMA CITY FL             12                    11                     11
  GULF 29N 85W               14                    14                     15
  GULF 29N 87W               14                    14                     15
  PENSACOLA FL               11                    11                     11
  MOBILE AL                  10                    11                     11
  MMMD 210N 897W              5                    5                       X
  GULFPORT MS                10                    11                     12
  BURAS LA                   12                    13                     14
  NEW ORLEANS LA             11                    12                     13
  NEW IBERIA LA               9                    11                     13
  GULF 28N 89W               14                    16                     17
  GULF 28N 91W               12                    14                     16
  FREEPORT TX                 7                     9                     12

  PORT O CONNOR TX            6                     8                     11
  PORT ARTHUR TX              7                    10                     12
  GALVESTON TX                7                    10                     12
  MMSO 238N 982W              2                     3                      X
  MMTM 222N 979W              X                     2                      X
  GULF 28N 93W               10                    12                     14
  GULF 28N 95W                7                    10                     12
  GULF 27N 96W                6                     9                     11
  BROWNSVILLE TX              4                     6                      8
  CORPUS CHRISTI TX           4                     7                      9
  GULF 25N 96W                4                     7                      8
  ADVISORY ISSUE TIME:     23/11PM       24/5AM        24/11AM        24/5PM
  PROBABILITY END TIME:    26/8PM        27/2AM        27/8AM         27/2PM
  MYGF 266N 787W             60            30             X              X
  MUHA 230N 824W              4             2             X              X
  MUAN 219N 850W              3             3             X              X
  MMCZ 205N 869W              X             2             X              X
  MARATHON FL                53            62             X              X
  MIAMI FL                   71            99             X              X
  W PALM BEACH FL            42            73             X              X
  FT PIERCE FL               14             8             X              X
  COCOA BEACH FL              7             4             X              X
  DAYTONA BEACH FL            5             3             X              X
  MARCO ISLAND FL            50            83            99              X
  CHARLESTON SC               X             X             X              X
  SAVANNAH GA                 2             X             X              X
  KEY WEST FL                41            37             X              X
  JACKSONVILLE FL             4             3             X              X
  FT MYERS FL                37            67            94              X
  VENICE FL                  26            46            62              X
  TAMPA FL                   16            19             6              X
  CEDAR KEY FL               10            10             4              X
  ST MARKS FL                 8             8             6              6

  APALACHICOLA FL            11            12             9              8
  PANAMA CITY FL             10            11            11             10
  GULF 29N 85W               13            15            13              9
  GULF 29N 87W               14            16            25             23
  PENSACOLA FL               10            12            15             16
  MOBILE AL                  10            12            17             18
  MMMD 210N 897W              3             3             X              X
  GULFPORT MS                11            13            19             21
  BURAS LA                   13            16            24             26
  NEW ORLEANS LA             12            14            21             23
  NEW IBERIA LA              12            14            20             21
  GULF 28N 89W               16            19            33             36
  GULF 28N 91W               15            17            26             28
  FREEPORT TX                10            11            13             13
  PORT O CONNOR TX           10            10            11             10
  PORT ARTHUR TX             10            12            16             17
  GALVESTON TX               11            12            15             15
  MMSO 238N 982W              5             3             X              X
  GULF 28N 93W               13            15            19             19
  GULF 28N 95W               11            12            13             13
  GULF 27N 96W               10            10             9              8
  BROWNSVILLE TX              8             6             4              3
  CORPUS CHRISTI TX           9             8             7              6
  GULF 25N 96W                9             7             4              4
  MMTM 222N 979W              3             X             X              X
  MMTX 210N 974W              2             X             X              X
  ADVISORY ISSUE TIME:     24/11PM    25/5AM     25/11AM    25/5PM      25/11PM
  PROBABILITY END TIME:    27/8PM     28/2AM     28/8AM     28/2PM      28/8PM
  FT PIERCE FL                2          X          X          X           X
  COCOA BEACH FL              2          X          X          X           X
  DAYTONA BEACH FL            3          X          X          X           X
  MARCO ISLAND FL             2          X          X          X           X
  CHARLESTON SC               2          X          X          X           X
  SAVANNAH GA                 3          X          X          X           X
  JACKSONVILLE FL             4          X          X          X           X
  FT MYERS FL                 2          X          X          X           X
  VENICE FL                   3          X          X          X           X
  TAMPA FL                    4          X          X          X           X

  CEDAR KEY FL                6          X          X          X           X
  ST MARKS FL                 9          5          X          X           6
  APALACHICOLA FL            11          7          6          4           6
  PANAMA CITY FL             13          8          7          6           7
  GULF 29N 85W               11          6          5          4           5
  GULF 29N 87W               21         15          9          6           6
  PENSACOLA FL               16         13         11          9          11
  MOBILE AL                  18         16         14         13          13
  GULFPORT MS                20         20         18         16          15
  BURAS LA                   23         32         50         44          64

  NEW ORLEANS LA             21         25         36         37          66
  NEW IBERIA LA              19         23         38         50          76
  GULF 28N 89W               37         68         99         99           6
  GULF 28N 91W               24         40         63         99          99
  FREEPORT TX                11         16         17         15           5
  PORT O CONNOR TX            9         13         13         10           2
  PORT ARTHUR TX             14         18         24         28          30
  GALVESTON TX               13         17         20         19          11
  MMSO 238N 982W              X          3          X          X           X
  GULF 28N 93W               17         21         21         22           8
  GULF 28N 95W               12         16         14         11           3
  GULF 27N 96W                8         12          9          6           X
  BROWNSVILLE TX              4          7          5          2           X
  CORPUS CHRISTI TX           6         10          9          6           X
  GULF 25N 96W                4          7          4          X           X

Jack Beven

Last updated December 25, 1998