000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011432
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Jun 1 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 94W, to the north of 04N, 
moving westward near 10 kt. Numerous moderate to strong 
convection is within 60 nm either side of the wave from 07N to 
15N. Active convection is expected to continue with this system 
through the weekend and into early next week while it moves 
slowly westward, and well to the south of the coast of Mexico. 
However, development of this system appears unlikely. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 12N88W to 08N109W to 
10N125W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 07N to 15N between 91W and 107W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 115W and 
130W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from high pressure centered well northwest of 
the region near 34N146W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The 
pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and a trough 
over the Gulf of California is supporting moderate northwesterly
winds across the Baja California waters extending southward to 
near the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate winds are noted in the
vicinity of the tropical wave south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 
Light to gentle winds prevail over the remainder of the 
discussion waters. Seas are in the 7-8 ft range in NW swell off 
Baja California Norte, and 7 ft off Baja California Sur. 
Elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico, seas are in the 4-6 ft
range in southwest swell. Seas of 3 ft or less are over the Gulf
of California. Hazy conditions persist off southern Mexico, 
including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to agricultural fires over
southern Mexico and Central America. Visibilities may decrease 
at times to 3 nm or less.

Satellite imagery shows a convective thunderstorms complex of 
numerous strong intensity south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec and
extending westward to near 105W. Frequent lightning is occurring
with this complex. Very rough seas can be expected with it as 
well. Mariners should be alert of this convective activity during
transit over or near the Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail 
off the Baja California waters through early next week. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail across the open 
waters. Seas will be in the range of 7 to 9 ft in NW swell off of
Baja California Norte through Mon. Hazy conditions, dense at 
times, may persist off southern Mexico, including the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, due to agricultural fires over S Mexico and Central 
America. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh east gap winds prevail across the Gulf
of Papagayo region and extend across most of the waters of 
Nicaragua to near 89W. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere N 
of the monsoon trough. Gentle to locally moderate winds prevail 
S of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range N of the
monsoon trough and 4-6 ft south of the monsoon trough. Hazy 
conditions continues off the Central American coast due to 
agricultural fires in southern Mexico and Central America. 
Visibilities may decrease at times to around 5 nm or less. 

For the forecast, pulsing moderate to fresh E gap winds will 
continue across the Papagayo region and most of Nicaragua waters 
through early Sun. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will 
prevail for the next several days. Hazy skies from smoke caused 
by agricultural fires over Mexico and Central America may reduce 
visibilities over portions of the Central American offshore 
waters the next few days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge extends from high pressure centered near 34N146W to near
the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the 
area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon
trough is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ to 
25N and W of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere N of 
the monsoon trough. Seas of 6-8 ft in north to northeast swell 
prevail across all but the far NW waters, where seas of 5-6 ft 
exist. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5-6 ft prevail S of 
the monsoon trough. 

For the forecast, little change is expected to the current
conditions over much of the area the next few days. The active
convection along the monsoon trough will gradually shift 
westward and weaken through the rest of the weekend. 

$$
AL