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Hurricane Adrian Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012023
300 AM MDT Thu Jun 29 2023
Adrian has had several convective bursts in the inner core
throughout the overnight period, particularly on the eastern side.
However, the eye is still not very well defined, with the system
struggling to wrap deep convection around western side. Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates from both SAB and TAFB have increased
slightly from the last advisory cycle, thus the initial intensity
of 75 kt.
Adrian is moving westward, or 285/7 kt, south of a mid-level
ridge. This ridge is forecast to weaken the next 2 days,
which will slow the storm's forward motion. Towards the end of the
forecast period the ridge weakens further, and the hurricane may
begin to interact with Tropical Depression Two-E to its east.
As this happens, the track model guidance shows Adrian meandering
or becoming stationary by the end of the forecast period. The track
forecast is very close to the previous forecast.
Adrian will remain in a fairly favorable environment for the next
day or so, with guidance indicating low vertical wind shear, and
warm SSTs near 28 degrees Celsius. Therefore, some slight
additional strengthening is forecast in the short term. By 48
hours, models show increasing easterly shear over the system,
associated with an upper-level high building to the north. Adrian
will also be moving into cooler SSTs during this time frame, the
combination of cooler SST and vertical wind shear should cause
weakening. The official intensity forecast is near the model
consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0900Z 15.5N 109.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 15.8N 111.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 16.0N 112.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 16.3N 113.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 16.6N 114.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 01/1800Z 16.9N 115.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 17.2N 116.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 17.6N 117.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 04/0600Z 17.7N 118.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Beven
NNNN