089 
AXNT20 KNHC 181001
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat May 18 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15.5W and continues southwestward to 
05N24W. The ITCZ extends from 05N24W to the coast of Brazil near  
03N51W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed
from 01N to 06N east of 30W, and from 03.5N to 09N between 35W and
59W.  

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front remains across the northern Gulf from southeast
Louisiana to NE Tamaulipas, Mexico. Clusters of showers and 
thunderstorms are present N of 28.5N between southwest Louisiana 
and the western Florida Panhandle. Over the remainder of the 
basin, much drier and more stable atmospheric conditions prevail.
Areas of haze and smoke from agricultural fires are covering most
of the western half of the Gulf of Mexico, including in the 
coastal plains of Mexico, and restricting visibility. Fresh to 
strong southeasterly winds and seas of 6-8 ft are occurring north
of Yucatan Peninsula, especially south of 26N, and between 86W 
and 91W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent
in the rest of the Gulf. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will shift eastward 
across the northern Gulf through early Sun, then stall and weaken
gradually through Mon. Upper-level disturbances moving from W to 
E across the Gulf coast states will maintain active weather over 
the northern Gulf through the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate to 
fresh return flow will dominate the basin through early Sun, 
pulsing to locally strong near the Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay 
of Campeche. Winds will slightly weaken Sun into early next week 
as the pressure gradient relaxes. Meanwhile, areas of haze and 
smoke due to agricultural fires in Mexico continue across most of 
the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche. Moderate to locally fresh SE
return flow will develop again across the W Gulf Tue and Wed. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends
southwestward to along about 60W and then westward along 24N-25N
to the NW Bahamas. The pressure gradient between this ridge and 
lower pressures in the deep tropics supports fresh to locally strong
easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean, including 
the Gulf of Venezuela, and fresh to strong SE winds west of 83W, 
including the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in the areas described are 
6-9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker wind and slight to moderate 
sea are prevalent. Very dry and stable atmospheric conditions
prevail across the entire basin, with no significant convection
noted. Areas of haze and smoke from agricultural fires are 
covering the NW Caribbean Sea, including the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge north of the basin will
reorganize through Mon, and sustain strong winds in the Gulf of 
Honduras through Sun, reaching near gale-force into Sat morning 
and again Sat night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in 
the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore Colombia through Sun night. 
Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere through early next
week. High pressure from the eastern Atlantic will ridge westward
Wed and Wed night leading to increasing trade winds over most of 
the central and eastern Caribbean. Dense smoke due to agricultural
fires in Central America continues across areas of the 
northwestern Caribbean, and is significantly reducing visibility 
across the Gulf of Honduras.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N61W to 27N70W, where it transitions
into a stationary front to near Melbourne, Florida. A few showers
are seen near the frontal boundary north of the NW Bahamas, while
scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted along the front east
of 65W. The rest of the western Atlantic, west of 55W, is under 
the influence of a broad subtropical ridge in the central 
Atlantic. The weak pressure gradient sustains moderate or weaker 
winds and moderate seas.

The central and eastern Atlantic is dominated by the aforementioned
subtropical ridge, centered on a 1022 mb high near 33N47W. South 
of the ridge, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of
5-7 ft are found south of 17N between 30W and the Lesser 
Antilles. Saharan air dominates these waters between 35W and
Africa. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with moderate 
seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will 
move slowly eastward, and shift east of 55W early Mon, with 
active weather expected to continue ahead of the front through 
Sun. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas are 
expected across most of the area through Sun night as weak high 
pressure extends E to W roughly along 24N-25N. A new front will 
sink southward into the waters offshore of Georgia and NE Florida 
early Mon, and move southeastward and weaken through late Tue. A 
residual trough may linger from near 30N71W to the central Bahamas
Wed and Wed night. 

$$
Stripling