812
AXPZ20 KNHC 020352
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Jun 02 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of a tropical wave is near 96W, to the north of 04N,
moving westward near 10 kt. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is within 180 nm either side of the wave from 08N to
14N. Active convection is expected to continue with this system
through the into early next week while it moves slowly westward,
and well to the south of the coast of Mexico. However,
development of this system appears unlikely.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure of 1007 mb
over northern Colombia to 10N85W to 11N95W to 08N112W to 10N129W
to low pressure near 09N137W 1010 mb and to 08N140W. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is within 60 nm either side of
the trough between 106W and 110W, also within 60 nm north of
the trough between 114W and 122W and within 60 nm south of
the trough between 120W and 122W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is seen within 120 nm north of the trough
between 99W and 102W, within 120 nm south of the trough between
99W and 104W and also south of the trough within 60 nm of
06N120W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A ridge extends from high pressure centered well northwest of
the region near 34N144W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The
pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and a trough
over the Gulf of California is supporting moderate northwesterly
winds across the Baja California waters extending southward to
near the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate winds are noted in the
vicinity of the tropical wave south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Light to gentle winds prevail over the remainder of the
discussion waters. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range in NW swell off
Baja California Norte, and 6-7 ft off Baja California Sur.
Elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico, seas are in the 4-6 ft
range in southwest swell. Seas of 3 ft or less are over the Gulf
of California. Hazy conditions persist off southern Mexico,
including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to agricultural fires over
southern Mexico and Central America. Visibilities may decrease
at times to 3 nm or less.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail
off the Baja California waters through early next week.
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail across the open
waters. Seas of 7 to 9 ft in NW swell are expected off of Baja
California Norte through Mon. Hazy conditions, dense at times,
may persist off southern Mexico, including the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, due to agricultural fires over S Mexico and Central
America.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate to locally fresh east gap winds prevail across the Gulf
of Papagayo region and extend across most of the waters of
Nicaragua to near 89W. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere N
of the monsoon trough. Gentle to locally moderate winds prevail
S of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range N of the
monsoon trough and 4-5 ft south of the monsoon trough. Hazy
conditions continues off the Central American coast due to
agricultural fires in southern Mexico and Central America.
Visibilities may decrease at times to around 5 nm or less.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh E gap winds will prevail
across the Papagayo region and most of Nicaragua waters through
early Sun. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are expected for
the next several days. Hazy skies from smoke caused by
agricultural fires over Mexico and Central America may reduce
visibilities over portions of the Central American offshore
waters the next few days.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A ridge extends from high pressure of 1029 mb that is centered
well to the northwest of the discussion area near 33N149W to
near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the
area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon
trough is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ to 25N
and W of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere N of the
monsoon trough. Seas of 6-8 ft in north to northeast swell
prevail across all but the far NW waters, where seas of 5-6 ft
exist. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5-6 ft prevail S of
the monsoon trough.
For the forecast, trade winds increase to fresh to strong speeds
over the far western part of the area north of the 1010 low that
is located near 09N137W to 18N, and continue until Sunday
afternoon, at which time the low crosses 140W. Seas of 8-10 ft in
NE swell will linger over the western part of the area from 10N
to 20N and west of about 134W through late Mon. Otherwise, little
change is expected to the current conditions over much of the
area the next few days. The active convection along the monsoon
trough will gradually shift westward and weaken through late Sun.
$$
Aguirre
