000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181605
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat May 18 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 08N84W to 15N100W to a 1009 mb
low pressure situated near 11N106W to 07N120W. The ITCZ
continues from 07N120W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 09N E of 90W.
Scattered moderate convection is N of 10N between 91W and 100W,
from 07N to 13N between 105W and 111W, and from 02N to 07N W of
128W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
supporting moderate to fresh N-NW winds and moderate seas to 7 ft.
Elsewhere, including the Gulf of California, winds are light to
gentle with moderate seas to 6 ft in SW swell, excep slight seas
to 3 ft over the Gulf of California. Reduced visibility is likely
over the S and SW offshore zones of Mexico due to agricultural
fires.
For the forecast, the surface ridge over the waters west of the
Baja California peninsula along with a trough over NW Mexico
will conintue to support moderate to fresh N-NW winds over the
Baja Peninsula offshore waters through Wed, increasing to
locally strong speeds between Cabo San Lucas and Punta Eugenia
Sun through Mon. Large NW swell is forecast to impact the Baja
California offshore waters Mon through Wed night with seas to 9
ft. Otherwise, disorganized showers and thunderstorms persist
several hundred miles to the south of the coast of southern
Mexico along a trough of low pressure. Development of this
system, if any, should be slow to occur as it moves slowly
westward during the next few days.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Light to gentle variable winds are ongoing over the Central
America offshore waters along with moderate seas in the 4-6 ft
range in SW swell. Between the coast of Ecuador and the
Galapagos Islands, winds are gentle to moderate from the S-SE and
seas are 5-6 ft in SW swell.
For the forecast, the monsoon trough will continue to support and
amplify the convection over the Central America offshore waters
through early next week. Modereate NE winds will pulse in the
Gulf of Papagayo Sun and Mon. Moderate to fresh S-SW winds will
develop across portions of the Colombia and Ecuador offshore
waters Sun night into Mon night. Southwest swell with 8-9 ft seas
will start to propagate across the waters SW of the Galapagos
Islands Sun, and reach the the Ecuador offshore waters through Mon
evening before subsiding.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A ridge dominates the waters N of 17N and W of 120W. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressure along the ITCZ is
forcing moderate to fresh NE to E trades from 06N to 14N west of
125W. Seas are in the 8 to 9 ft range within these winds. A 1009
mb low pressure is along the monsoon trough near 10N106W. Moderate
to locally fresh SW winds are noted on the SE semicircle of the
low center to about 07N. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker
with seas of 6 to 8 ft across the basin due to cross equatorial
SW swell S of 20N.
For the forecast, high pressure will continue to dominate the
forecast waters N of 10N and W of 120W through the middle o f
next week with moderate to locally fresh trade winds and
moderate seas along the southern periphery of its associated
ridge. The high pressure will strengthen Sun into Mon bringing
some increase in winds across the offshore waters of Baja
California, and in the trade wind zone. Large SW swell should
reach near the equator west of 100W later today and continue
through Mon.
An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico continues to produce
a small area of showers and thunderstorms. This activity has
become more diffuse than yesterday, and marginal environmental
conditions due to nearby dry air are likely to limit significant
development. This system should remain nearly stationary during
the next day or so, but by the end of the weekend, the low is
forecast to interact or merge with another system to its east.
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms (the second system) persist
several hundred miles to the south of the coast of southern Mexico
along a trough of low pressure. Development of this system, if
any, should be slow to occur as it moves slowly westward during
the next few days.
$$
Ramos
