000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190918
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun May 19 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from a 1007 mb low pressure located 
over northern Colombia near 10N74W to 12N100W to 08N115W. The 
ITCZ continues from 07N115W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 95W and 
103W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge is the main feature controlling the weather pattern across
the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. This system
supports moderate to fresh NW to N winds N of Cabo San Lazaro, 
and gentle to moderate winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Cabo San
Lucas. Seas are 5 to 7 ft within these winds. Elsewhere, including
the Gulf of California, light to gentle winds prevail, with the 
exception of gentle to moderate SW to W winds over the northern 
part of the Gulf of California where seas are in the 3 to 4 ft 
range. Elsewhere across the Gulf, seas are 3 ft or less. Seas of
5 to 7 ft dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters. 
Medium concentration of smoke, due to agricultural fires, may 
reduce visibility over southern Mexico.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate the
offshore forecast waters of Baja California through at least
mid-week. This system, along with lower pressures over Mexico 
will continue to support moderate to fresh NW to N winds W of
the Baja California peninsula, increasing to locally strong 
speeds N of Cabo San Lazaro tonight through Mon night. Large NW 
swell is forecast to impact the outer forecast waters of Baja 
California Norte beginning on Mon. Seas of 8 to 9 ft are likely 
expected N of Punta Eugenia through mid-week. Tropical cyclone 
formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds are ongoing over the Central America 
offshore waters along with moderate seas in the 4 to 6 ft range 
due to long period SW swell.  

For the forecast, the monsoon trough extending along 11N-12N will
help to induce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over
the Central America waters over the next couple of days. Winds 
will remain moderate or weaker early this week. Southerly swell 
propagating across the regional waters will support seas of 4 to 
6 ft, building to 6 to 8 ft across the waters between Ecuador 
and the Galapagos Islands later today into Mon. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure, located N of the forecast region, extends a ridge
across the waters N of 15N and W of 110W. The pressure gradient 
between the ridge and lower pressure along the ITCZ is forcing 
fresh to strong NE to E trades from 05N to 16N west of 132W per 
scatterometer data. Seas are in the 8 to 10 ft range within these
winds. Elsewhere under the influence of the ridge, gentle to
moderate winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the
weather pattern across the area N of 10N and W of 110W through 
at least mid-week with moderate to locally fresh trade winds and
moderate seas along the southern periphery of its associated 
ridge. The high pressure will strengthen later today into Mon 
bringing some increase in winds across the offshore waters of 
Baja California, and in the trade wind zone. Long period SW swell
will continue to propagate across the forecast waters today. 

$$
GR